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Eric D. Loken
,
Adam J. Clark
,
Amy McGovern
,
Montgomery Flora
, and
Kent Knopfmeier

, multiple-physics CAEs is an artificial inflation of ensemble spread due to the existence of systematic biases between ensemble members ( Eckel and Mass 2005 ; Clark et al. 2010b ; Loken et al. 2019 ). These shortcomings are typically resolved using one or more postprocessing techniques, including isotropic (e.g., Sobash et al. 2011 , 2016 ; Loken et al. 2017 , 2019 ; Roberts et al. 2019 ) or anisotropic (e.g., Marsh et al. 2012 ) spatial smoothing of the raw forecast probability field

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John L. Cintineo
,
Michael J. Pavolonis
,
Justin M. Sieglaff
,
Anthony Wimmers
,
Jason Brunner
, and
Willard Bellon

1. Introduction Since the advent of weather satellites, researchers have been investigating signatures of intense convection from satellite images (e.g., Purdom 1976 ; Adler and Fenn 1979 ; Menzel and Purdom 1994 ; Schmit et al. 2005 , 2015 ). Forecasters frequently scrutinize satellite imagery to help infer storm dynamics and diagnose and forecast the intensity of thunderstorms, which can generate a variety of hazards. Intense convective updrafts frequently penetrate the tropopause

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