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Chul-Su Shin, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Bohua Huang, Subhadeep Halder, and Arun Kumar

1. Introduction Useful predictability of deterministic weather forecasts is usually no more than 2 weeks, limited by the sensitivity to the atmospheric initial state, while longer memory from ocean heat content plays a dominant role in the climate predictability on seasonal and longer time scales (e.g., Lorenz 1963 , 1975 ; Shukla 1985 ; Lorenz 1993 ). There is a gap between the two time scales of weather and climate predictions, where inertia in the land surface, such as soil moisture

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Chul-Su Shin, Bohua Huang, Paul A. Dirmeyer, Subhadeep Halder, and Arun Kumar

temperature (e.g., Yoon et al. 2012 ; Yuan and Wood 2013 ; Dutra et al. 2014 ; Mo and Lyon 2015 ). Current seasonal coupled forecast systems can predict major oceanic and atmospheric anomalies at useful lead times (e.g., Jin et al. 2008 ; Kirtman et al. 2014 ; Huang et al. 2017a ; Shin et al. 2019 ). However, the current level of skill in forecasting drought onset, development, and demise is limited (e.g., Quan et al. 2012 ; Mo and Lyon 2015 ), possibly because other sources of predictability

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Christa D. Peters-Lidard, David M. Mocko, Lu Su, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Pierre Gentine, and Michael Barlage

surface models that run routinely for monitoring or forecasting has opened up many more possibilities for calculating drought indicators. Because the availability of data and/or model outputs determines which indicators are possible, we broadly classify indicators into traditional and land surface model based, with a third category—remotely sensed—to be discussed in a later section. Traditional drought indicators As noted in the Introduction, dozens of drought indicators are in common use (e.g., Heim

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