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Hilke S. Lentink, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Sarah C. Jones

, and R. L. Elsberry , 2000 : Extratropical transition of western North Pacific tropical cyclones: An overview and conceptual model of the transformation stage . Wea. Forecasting , 15 , 373 – 395 ,<0373:ETOWNP>2.0.CO;2 . 10.1175/1520-0434(2000)015<0373:ETOWNP>2.0.CO;2 Kossin , J. P. , and C. S. Velden , 2004 : A pronounced bias in tropical cyclone minimum sea level pressure estimation based on the Dvorak technique . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 132

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

wave breaking toward the end of the life cycle resulted in the formation of a cutoff cyclone over Europe, which led to the heavy precipitation event. The rain was poorly forecast by the operational centers even on the relatively short time scale of a few days ( Grazzini and van der Grijn 2002 ). Assuming that large-scale and long-lived dynamical features should generally be predictable on a time scale longer than just a few days, this suggest that there may be room for improvements concerning the

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