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David B. Parsons, Kevin R. Haghi, Kelton T. Halbert, Blake Elmer, and Junhong Wang

, several studies (e.g., Davis et al. 2003 ; Clark et al. 2007 ; Surcel et al. 2010 ) have demonstrated that advancing forecast skill in numerical weather prediction models for these nocturnal systems has proven elusive. The low skill is important, since researchers have long established that summer thunderstorms and convective precipitation are most frequent after sunset over a broad region of the Great Plains, ranging from Oklahoma to southern Manitoba, and between about 92° and 100°W ( Kincer 1916

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