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Robert G. Nystrom, Fuqing Zhang, Erin B. Munsell, Scott A. Braun, Jason A. Sippel, Yonghui Weng, and Kerry Emanuel

) are constructed separately, the effects of the IC perturbations from each of these regions can be isolated and their influence on the track and intensity forecast spread examined. The process of removing the IC differences in a specific region is referred to throughout this manuscript as relaxing. A strength of this technique is that it illustrates the effects of IC differences only within a specific region and can help to more clearly understand how IC differences within a specific region evolve

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Jonathan Martinez, Michael M. Bell, Robert F. Rogers, and James D. Doyle

to better understand the evolution of the strongest TC observed to date in the Western Hemisphere ( Rogers et al. 2017 ). The current state of forecasting TC rapid intensification (RI) events is largely dependent on probabilistic techniques, which aid the intensity guidance provided by deterministic models. For example, the rapid intensification index (RII; Kaplan et al. 2010 ) employs large-scale environmental predictors from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS

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