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Stacey M. Hitchcock and Russ S. Schumacher

front ( Schumacher 2017 , and citations therein). In both cases, cloud layer winds can lead to cell motion parallel to the boundary and training/back-building. Corfidi et al. (1996) developed a technique to forecast the instances of back-building or quasi-stationary convection using the mean cloud layer wind and the (negative of) the LLJ. This was expanded to forecast forward propagation in Corfidi (2003) . In a conceptual model in Corfidi (2003) , the gust front is thought to elongate in the

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Sean Stelten and William A. Gallus Jr.

can threaten public safety and property with high winds, hail, flooding, and occasionally tornadoes, despite their helpful role as the primary producer of warm season precipitation in the central United States ( Maddox et al. 1979 ; Maddox 1980 ; Fritsch et al. 1986 ; Rochette and Moore 1996 ). Thus, correctly predicting the initiation of MCSs and other less organized convection is an integral part of forecasting for the Great Plains. Prediction of the CI that leads to nighttime convection is

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Aaron Johnson and Xuguang Wang

goals of PECAN was to improve the prediction of nocturnal CI, nocturnal mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), atmospheric bores, and nocturnal LLJs “with a particular focus on the next generation convective-permitting models and advanced assimilation techniques” ( Geerts et al. 2017 ). Much of the literature on model configurations for predicting convection in the Great Plains focuses primarily on daytime convection or discusses only the forecast lead time, with little or no mention of the

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Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, and Samuel Degelia

) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system . Tellus , 60A , 62 – 79 , doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00273.x . 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00273.x Wheatley , D. M. , N. Yussouf , and D. J. Stensrud , 2014 : Ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of a severe mesoscale convective system using different choices of microphysics schemes . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 142 , 3243 – 3263 , doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00260.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00260.1 Wheatley , D. M. , K. H. Knopfmeier , T. A

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Hristo G. Chipilski, Xuguang Wang, and David B. Parsons

algorithm framework, this paper also highlights a spectrum of additional algorithm applications relevant for bore research and operational forecasting of nocturnal storms. Generally speaking, these algorithm applications can be utilized in two different ways. The first pertains to the verification of numerically simulated convective outflow boundaries. With the advance of convection-allowing NWP models, object-based verification techniques like the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE

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Samuel K. Degelia, Xuguang Wang, and David J. Stensrud

, . 10.5065/D64M92RG Wei , M. , Z. Toth , R. Wobus , and Y. Zhu , 2008 : Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system . Tellus , 60A , 62 – 79 , . 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00273.x Weisman , M. L. , C. Davis , W. Wang , K. W. Manning , and J. B. Klemp , 2008 : Experiences with 0–36-h explicit convective forecasts with the

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Aaron Johnson, Xuguang Wang, Kevin R. Haghi, and David B. Parsons

different initialization times before bore formation, but to a lesser degree than compared to an initialization after bore formation. Recent studies have begun to use dual-resolution ensemble data assimilation techniques to provide a higher-resolution single analysis than the resolution of the ensemble members ( Wang and Wang 2017 ; Lu et al. 2017 ). Short-term forecasts initialized after bore formation may require such a data assimilation system in order to efficiently provide a higher

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Jonathan E. Thielen and William A. Gallus Jr.

. E. Ebert , 2006 : The use of a modified Ebert–McBride technique to evaluate mesoscale model QPF as a function of convective system morphology during IHOP 2002 . Wea. Forecasting , 21 , 288 – 306 , . 10.1175/WAF918.1 Grasso , L. , D. T. Lindsey , K.-S. Sunny Lim , A. Clark , D. Bikos , and S. R. Dembek , 2014 : Evaluation of and suggested improvements to the wsm6 microphysics in WRF-ARW using synthetic and observed GOES-13 imagery . Mon. Wea. Rev

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Bart Geerts, David Parsons, Conrad L. Ziegler, Tammy M. Weckwerth, Michael I. Biggerstaff, Richard D. Clark, Michael C. Coniglio, Belay B. Demoz, Richard A. Ferrare, William A. Gallus Jr., Kevin Haghi, John M. Hanesiak, Petra M. Klein, Kevin R. Knupp, Karen Kosiba, Greg M. McFarquhar, James A. Moore, Amin R. Nehrir, Matthew D. Parker, James O. Pinto, Robert M. Rauber, Russ S. Schumacher, David D. Turner, Qing Wang, Xuguang Wang, Zhien Wang, and Joshua Wurman

evaluations of operational CPMs, reveal significant errors in CI timing and location ( Kain et al. 2013 ), system duration, and QPF, in particular during the night in the PECAN region, even over short forecast periods ( Pinto et al. 2015 ). Certain field campaigns such as IHOP ( Weckwerth et al. 2004 ), BAMEX ( Davis et al. 2004 ), and MPEX ( Weisman et al. 2015 ) collected tantalizing observations of relevance and motivation to PECAN, within the broader PECAN domain. However, IHOP focused on the daytime

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Kevin R. Haghi, Bart Geerts, Hristo G. Chipilski, Aaron Johnson, Samuel Degelia, David Imy, David B. Parsons, Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, David D. Turner, and Xuguang Wang

This article presents a survey of atmospheric bores, their role in the initiation and organization of deep convection, and a vision for improving the forecast of atmospheric bores and nocturnal convection through a multidisciplinary approach. On the afternoon of the 10 July 2015 in Hays, Kansas, during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) field campaign ( Geerts et al. 2017 ), the bore group was selected to lead the evening’s intensive observation period (IOP). The PECAN forecasters

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