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Eva-Maria Walz, Marlon Maranan, Roderick van der Linden, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz

land-sea contrast is evident. Over land, the ECMWF ensemble is skillful over most areas except for some high mountain and coastal regions. Land areas in the inner tropics with frequent rainfall (Amazon basin, tropical Africa, southern India, Southeast Asia, Maritime Continent) show neutral skill. Over the ocean, skill is mostly negative or neutral except for near-continental areas in the subtropics such as the Mediterranean Sea. The drier parts of the oceans have strongly negative BSS, while the

Open access
Jan Wandel, Julian F. Quinting, and Christian M. Grams

biases increases only slightly in most regions except for the southern United States and the Gulf of Mexico where positive biases exceed 1.5% at 15 days lead time ( Fig. 2g ). For the WCB outflow, the negative bias over the North Atlantic increases to around 3% at 7 and 15 days lead time ( Figs. 2f,i ). For the North Pacific region, an area with positive WCB inflow frequency biases of 2%–5% spans from the South China Sea to Japan and farther east toward the climatological frequency maximum (20°–30°N

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Stephan Rasp, Tobias Selz, and George C. Craig

Mediterranean Sea. Two phenomena were associated with this system: a WCB extending from the Mediterranean Sea to Scandinavia and intense, deep convection over the Adriatic Sea. Therefore, a combination of convective and slantwise ascent processes can be expected. This case was already investigated as part of the THORPEX North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (T-NAWDEX-Falcon) observation campaign ( Schäfler et al. 2014 ). On 14 October a cyclone formed ahead of an upper-level trough

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Andreas Schäfler, George Craig, Heini Wernli, Philippe Arbogast, James D. Doyle, Ron McTaggart-Cowan, John Methven, Gwendal Rivière, Felix Ament, Maxi Boettcher, Martina Bramberger, Quitterie Cazenave, Richard Cotton, Susanne Crewell, Julien Delanoë, Andreas Dörnbrack, André Ehrlich, Florian Ewald, Andreas Fix, Christian M. Grams, Suzanne L. Gray, Hans Grob, Silke Groß, Martin Hagen, Ben Harvey, Lutz Hirsch, Marek Jacob, Tobias Kölling, Heike Konow, Christian Lemmerz, Oliver Lux, Linus Magnusson, Bernhard Mayer, Mario Mech, Richard Moore, Jacques Pelon, Julian Quinting, Stephan Rahm, Markus Rapp, Marc Rautenhaus, Oliver Reitebuch, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Harald Sodemann, Thomas Spengler, Geraint Vaughan, Manfred Wendisch, Martin Wirth, Benjamin Witschas, Kevin Wolf, and Tobias Zinner

) on 13 October when it triggered heavy precipitation and strong winds over France and Italy. The 24-h accumulated precipitation in the Herault region reached ∼250 mm ( Fig. 10b ), and wind gusts exceeding 100 km h −1 were observed along the French Mediterranean coast ( Fig. 10c ). As in typical Cévenol episodes, strong southerlies brought warm and moist air from the Mediterranean Sea toward the Massif Central and caused heavy orographic precipitation over the mountain ranges of the Cevennes

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Hilke S. Lentink, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Sarah C. Jones

influence of Sardinia on Corsican rainfall in the western Mediterranean Sea: A numerical sensitivity study . Atmos. Res. , 153 , 451 – 464 , https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.10.004 . 10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.10.004 Evans , C. , and Coauthors , 2017 : The extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Part I: Cyclone evolution and direct impacts . Mon. Wea. Rev. , 145 , 4317 – 4344 , https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0027.1 . 10.1175/MWR-D-17-0027.1 Foerster , A. M. , M. M. Bell , P

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Andreas Schlueter, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, and Peter Vogel

clear picture of the propagation of the ER wave. As a largely independent dataset, rain gauge measurements confirm the significant influence over the entire continent. The wave exhibits significant modulation patterns that reach up to the Mediterranean Sea and to East Africa. The approximate wavelength is 8000 km; thus, it is dry over central and East Africa when wet anomalies persist over West Africa and vice versa. The modulation patterns as measured by TRMM are very similar to CHIRPS but more

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Andreas Schlueter, Andreas H. Fink, and Peter Knippertz

-lagged analysis The MJO and ER waves trigger rainfall anomalies up to the Mediterranean Sea ( Part I ). To test, whether and how the waves couple with the extratropical circulation, geopotential and wind at 300 hPa were analyzed. The influence on lower-tropospheric thickness was analyzed between 600 and 925 hPa. The origin and development of the wave signal were traced using a time-lag analysis. The tropical plumes were observed in the local phase 4 (see section 2d of Part I for more detail on the phase

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Kevin Bachmann, Christian Keil, George C. Craig, Martin Weissmann, and Christian A. Welzbacher

potential biases in temperature and surface pressure ( Hanley et al. 2015 ; Necker et al. 2018 ; Hirt et al. 2019 ). Fig . 2. Map of the investigated COSMO-KENDA and the DE-EPS domain centered over Germany and covering parts of central Europe: the altitude above sea level is shown in grayscale and the blue (red) box indicates the subdomain north (south); political borders are displayed in dotted lines for orientation. The model setup chosen is configured as similar to the idealized COSMO

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Thomas Engel, Andreas H. Fink, Peter Knippertz, Gregor Pante, and Jan Bliefernicht

TRMM radar data (e.g., Gosset et al. 2013 ; Pfeifroth et al. 2016 ). The period used in the present study is 1983–2014. 3. Methods a. Analysis of atmospheric dynamics Both Ouagadougou and Dakar are located in the Sahel, a region stretching between about 12° and 18°N from the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea (see Fig. 1a ). This area is characterized by the transition from the arid conditions of the Sahara with less than 200 mm rainfall per year to a more humid climate equatorward. The West African

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Jacopo Riboldi, Christian M. Grams, Michael Riemer, and Heather M. Archambault

blocking. Climatologically, blocking occurs 5%–10% of the time during ASO at the end of the Pacific storm track, south of Alaska and over the Bering Sea (black dashed lines in Fig. 3 ). However, the probability of atmospheric blocking at the eastern edge of the Pacific storm track is 2 times higher than climatology when TC recurvature has occurred over the western North Pacific during the previous 1–5 days ( Figs. 3b–d ). Blocking is mostly enhanced over the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada (i.e., in

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