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Robert L. Creasey and Russell L. Elsberry

displacements may be an order of magnitude larger than in Figs. 3a,b and become crucial for locating the observations relative to the center. Fig . 3. Example of a HDSS sonde deployment at 1800 UTC 4 Oct 2015 near the center of Hurricane Joaquin with horizontal displacements in (a) latitude and (b) longitude (relative to Greenwich) as the sonde falls from 18-km elevation to the ocean surface over ~700 s. Observations each second of (c) wind speed (m s −1 ) and (d) wind direction (°) are inferred from

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Russell L. Elsberry, Eric A. Hendricks, Christopher S. Velden, Michael M. Bell, Melinda Peng, Eleanor Casas, and Qingyun Zhao

predictions. Oyama (2017) has demonstrated that composites of TC outflows at the cloud tops computed from AMVs can be related to the intensification rates. Oyama et al. (2018) then compare the maximum tangential winds in the outflow estimated from 30-min-interval Himawari-8 target observations with the maximum surface wind evolutions throughout the lifetime of two typhoons and suggest that Himawari-8 AMVs can be used to monitor TC intensification and related structural changes. In this study, a

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T. Ghosh and T. N. Krishnamurti

the model forecasts are the sample observations and the average of these forecasts is the sample mean. Another way of looking at this is to regard every model forecast as an estimate of the event to be forecasted, and the simple mean of the results is a standard combination of those estimates. This notion was also expressed in the works of Leslie and Fraedrich (1990) , Mundell and Rupp (1995) , and Goerss (2000) , who examined tropical cyclone track forecasts. These studies show that a

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