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Jian Ling, Peter Bauer, Peter Bechtold, Anton Beljaars, Richard Forbes, Frederic Vitart, Marcela Ulate, and Chidong Zhang

; Renwick and Revell 1999 ). A models’ capability of forecasting the global teleconnection pattern of the MJO depends on its skill of forecasting MJO convection centers in terms of their strengths, propagation speeds, and timing. The objectives of this study are to document the ECMWF model’s forecast skill during DYNAMO as a benchmark for the comparative evaluation of forecast and hindcast skill of other operational and research models for the same MJO events; advocate the need for both global and local

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Eric D. Skyllingstad and Simon P. de Szoeke

( Rotunno et al. 1988 ; Weckwerth and Parsons 2006 ; Houston and Wilhelmson 2012 ). In the deep tropics, cold pools can cause a more than doubling of the local latent heat flux ( Jabouille et al. 1996 ). Understanding how cold pools interact and potentially enhance tropical convection is important for accurate representation of convection in large-scale models where these processes are not well resolved. On average, heating by deep convection through condensation is the primary mechanism that balances

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Tomoe Nasuno, Tim Li, and Kazuyoshi Kikuchi

). Ray and Li (2013) evaluated the relative importance of circumnavigating signals and extratropical forcing by performing sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model and concluded that extratropical forcing was more important than were circumnavigating signals in association with mean moisture convergence. They demonstrated that the upper-tropospheric wave energy that originated in the extratropics intruded into the equatorial region to initiate the MJO. However, no detailed

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George N. Kiladis, Juliana Dias, Katherine H. Straub, Matthew C. Wheeler, Stefan N. Tulich, Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Klaus M. Weickmann, and Michael J. Ventrice

) , as long as the spatial EOFs derived from the fully filtered fields are used for projection. Real-time data can be easily smoothed for this, using running averages up to the endpoint, as shown in section 5 . Nevertheless, for studies where retrospective data allow for better filtering, the OMI and FMO certainly do a better job in categorizing the convective evolution of individual events, as shown in the preceding sections of this paper. With regard to the evaluation of model output using MJO

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Jean-Philippe Duvel

–2012 for which both ERA-I and RSMC evaluations are expected to be more reliable for this region thanks to additional satellite data (e.g., relocation of Meteosat-5 over the Indian Ocean in July 1998). Fig . 8. MJO modulation of TD and TS initiations over the Indian Ocean during austral summer. (a) Probability (number per day) of TD and TS initiations in different phases of the MJO and for “no MJO” periods; up (down) triangles represent significant increase (decrease) of the initiation probability at

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