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-season mesoscale convective systems ( Jankov et al. 2007a ) and cold-season orographical forcing ( Jankov et al. 2007b ). In the current study we present a technique that unifies evaluation of the forecast uncertainties produced either by initial conditions or different model versions, or both. The technique consists of first diagnosing the performance of the forecast ensemble, which is based on explicit use of the analysis uncertainties, and then optimizing the ensemble forecast using results of the diagnosis
-season mesoscale convective systems ( Jankov et al. 2007a ) and cold-season orographical forcing ( Jankov et al. 2007b ). In the current study we present a technique that unifies evaluation of the forecast uncertainties produced either by initial conditions or different model versions, or both. The technique consists of first diagnosing the performance of the forecast ensemble, which is based on explicit use of the analysis uncertainties, and then optimizing the ensemble forecast using results of the diagnosis
–Monteith formula may saturate the boundary layer and induce spurious water clouds. Overall, the surface radiation balance for June 2001 appears to be better simulated with Polar WRF than with Polar MM5. The June 2001 simulations were also evaluated by statistical comparison to AWS observations for June 2001. Table 4 shows the average of the model performance statistics for the AWS locations in Table 1 . Up to 12 stations are available for the June 2001 average. The sites JAR2 and JAR3 are excluded in the
–Monteith formula may saturate the boundary layer and induce spurious water clouds. Overall, the surface radiation balance for June 2001 appears to be better simulated with Polar WRF than with Polar MM5. The June 2001 simulations were also evaluated by statistical comparison to AWS observations for June 2001. Table 4 shows the average of the model performance statistics for the AWS locations in Table 1 . Up to 12 stations are available for the June 2001 average. The sites JAR2 and JAR3 are excluded in the
systematically. Starting with a thorough assessment using the shallow water equations, the model was subjected to detailed comparison studies as a stand-alone dycore with simple physics to a complete atmospheric climate model incorporating currently best understood physics. It was evaluated using various truncations with or without LMR. Its performance on careful comparison with a modern state-of-the-art atmospheric climate model—NCAR’s CAM2—indicates that CAM_SEM is predicting satisfactorily at this point
systematically. Starting with a thorough assessment using the shallow water equations, the model was subjected to detailed comparison studies as a stand-alone dycore with simple physics to a complete atmospheric climate model incorporating currently best understood physics. It was evaluated using various truncations with or without LMR. Its performance on careful comparison with a modern state-of-the-art atmospheric climate model—NCAR’s CAM2—indicates that CAM_SEM is predicting satisfactorily at this point
performed such evaluations by examining how NWP models depict the diurnal cycle of precipitation during the warm season over North America. Their analyses are indicative of model performance in characterizing convection initiation, the motion of organized convection, and the convection related to sea-breeze circulations near the Gulf of Mexico. Similarly, in a recent paper ( Surcel et al. 2010 , hereafter Part I ) we have evaluated the performance of the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM
performed such evaluations by examining how NWP models depict the diurnal cycle of precipitation during the warm season over North America. Their analyses are indicative of model performance in characterizing convection initiation, the motion of organized convection, and the convection related to sea-breeze circulations near the Gulf of Mexico. Similarly, in a recent paper ( Surcel et al. 2010 , hereafter Part I ) we have evaluated the performance of the Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM
SGM results to the observations, they found that the model realistically reproduced the main climate characteristics over the Mediterranean. Furthermore, comparing variable-resolution ARPEGE with a uniform grid configuration of the same model, they suggested that the increase in horizontal resolution does not systematically improve the model performance with respect to the observations. The stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP; Fox-Rabinovitz et al. 2006 ) revealed many advantages
SGM results to the observations, they found that the model realistically reproduced the main climate characteristics over the Mediterranean. Furthermore, comparing variable-resolution ARPEGE with a uniform grid configuration of the same model, they suggested that the increase in horizontal resolution does not systematically improve the model performance with respect to the observations. The stretched-grid model intercomparison project (SGMIP; Fox-Rabinovitz et al. 2006 ) revealed many advantages
Model, and compared its performance with three other commonly used PBL parameterization schemes, the YSU, UW, and MYNN schemes. The simulations with the four PBL schemes are conducted over the SEP where stratocumulus and shallow cumulus are dominant and over the SGP where strong diurnal variation of the PBL is common. The simulations are evaluated/compared against various observations during two field campaigns: the VOCALS 2008 over the SEP and the LAFE 2017 over the SGP. The TKE fields simulated
Model, and compared its performance with three other commonly used PBL parameterization schemes, the YSU, UW, and MYNN schemes. The simulations with the four PBL schemes are conducted over the SEP where stratocumulus and shallow cumulus are dominant and over the SGP where strong diurnal variation of the PBL is common. The simulations are evaluated/compared against various observations during two field campaigns: the VOCALS 2008 over the SEP and the LAFE 2017 over the SGP. The TKE fields simulated
topographies is analyzed. Our simulations make use of the urban canopy model to account for the impact of the urban geometry on surface energy budgets and wind shear calculations. We investigate grid spacings of 1 and 5 km without convection parameterization and also apply the scale-aware Grell–Freitas convection parameterization for 5-km grid spacing. This allows us to evaluate the strength and weakness of each dataset regarding its performance of simulating the temporal, spatial, and intensity
topographies is analyzed. Our simulations make use of the urban canopy model to account for the impact of the urban geometry on surface energy budgets and wind shear calculations. We investigate grid spacings of 1 and 5 km without convection parameterization and also apply the scale-aware Grell–Freitas convection parameterization for 5-km grid spacing. This allows us to evaluate the strength and weakness of each dataset regarding its performance of simulating the temporal, spatial, and intensity
) following Davies (1976) . In this study, cells on the outer boundary of the domain are completely specified by the large-scale and nudging strength decreases exponentially with a five gridcell e -folding length toward the interior of the domain. The nudging zone boundaries are illustrated in Fig. 1a . In our experience, these changes from the WRF default (a five-layer zone with linear decreasing nudging strength) improve model performance for long-range simulations. The vertical axis contains
) following Davies (1976) . In this study, cells on the outer boundary of the domain are completely specified by the large-scale and nudging strength decreases exponentially with a five gridcell e -folding length toward the interior of the domain. The nudging zone boundaries are illustrated in Fig. 1a . In our experience, these changes from the WRF default (a five-layer zone with linear decreasing nudging strength) improve model performance for long-range simulations. The vertical axis contains
eliminating the presence of the Guinea Highlands prevents the AEW from developing into a tropical disturbance. Both studies note difficulties with WRF evolving and propagating AEWs for simulations beyond 5 days. An evaluation of RCM performance must consider alternative model configurations. WRF has become host to many alternative sophisticated parameterizations of physical processes, such as radiation transfer, surface hydrology, boundary layer turbulence, and cumulus convection. The optimum WRF
eliminating the presence of the Guinea Highlands prevents the AEW from developing into a tropical disturbance. Both studies note difficulties with WRF evolving and propagating AEWs for simulations beyond 5 days. An evaluation of RCM performance must consider alternative model configurations. WRF has become host to many alternative sophisticated parameterizations of physical processes, such as radiation transfer, surface hydrology, boundary layer turbulence, and cumulus convection. The optimum WRF
), and P3 track (green) and Atlantis track (red) during cloud study on 16 May. The 2010 CalNex air quality and climate study involved many people, platforms, and instruments. In this paper, we use a subset of the data to evaluate meteorological model performance. Sites and data were chosen for relevance to the CalNex goals and to show important differences among the model configurations. Among these are data from wind profilers operated by the South Coast Air Quality Management District near Los
), and P3 track (green) and Atlantis track (red) during cloud study on 16 May. The 2010 CalNex air quality and climate study involved many people, platforms, and instruments. In this paper, we use a subset of the data to evaluate meteorological model performance. Sites and data were chosen for relevance to the CalNex goals and to show important differences among the model configurations. Among these are data from wind profilers operated by the South Coast Air Quality Management District near Los
