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David R. Ryglicki, James D. Doyle, Daniel Hodyss, Joshua H. Cossuth, Yi Jin, Kevin C. Viner, and Jerome M. Schmidt

boundary layer by low moisture air ( Riemer et al. 2010 ; Riemer and Laliberté 2015 ). Despite those thermodynamic effects, Onderlinde and Nolan (2016) and Finocchio et al. (2016) have demonstrated that given the correct environmental setup, the helicity of the background flow or the depth of the background winds can drastically change the evolution of a simulated TC. It is the depth of the background flow that Ryglicki et al. (2018a , hereafter Part I ) have argued is instrumental for

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Robert G. Nystrom and Fuqing Zhang

pressure at 39 h indicate that inner-core moisture may also have played some role in the forecast uncertainty ( Fig. 8c ), consistent with many previous studies (e.g., Rotunno and Emanuel 1987 ; Tao and Zhang 2014 ; Emanuel and Zhang 2017 ; Nystrom et al. 2018 ). However, differences here appeared minimal compared to differences in the primary and secondary circulations (not shown) and a moisture swap experiment in which the initial QVAPOR of a bad member (member 31) and the analysis mean are

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Xu Lu and Xuguang Wang

model integration to satisfy the mass conservation ( Fig. 7t ). The weak updraft is hypothesized to be related to the unrealistically discontinuous vertical diffusion parameterization as mentioned in section 1 ( Fig. 1 ), where the lack of vertical diffusion at the boundary layer top constrains the upward moisture and energy transport and therefore the updraft triggered by latent heat release in the eyewall is constrained. Such an inefficient vertical energy and moisture transport is reflected by

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William A. Komaromi and James D. Doyle

2014. The number of dropsondes in each bin is labeled in magenta. A meaningful relationship between the θ of the maximum 100–500-km radially averaged V r and the present intensity was not observed ( Fig. 9c ). However, a notable positive relationship between the θ of the outflow layer and the θ e of the boundary layer inflow, which is a proxy for low-level moisture and SSTs, does occur ( Fig. 9d ). These values are obtained by first computing azimuthal-mean V r in radius– θ (radius θ e

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Quanjia Zhong, Jianping Li, Lifeng Zhang, Ruiqiang Ding, and Baosheng Li

winds satellite mission to probe hurricanes and tropical convection . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 97 , 385 – 395 , https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00218.1 . 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00218.1 Tao , D. , and F. Zhang , 2014 : Effect of environmental shear, sea‐surface temperature, and ambient moisture on the formation and predictability of tropical cyclones: An ensemble‐mean perspective . J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. , 6 , 384 – 404 , https://doi.org/10.1002/2014MS000314 . 10.1002/2014MS000314

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David R. Ryglicki, James D. Doyle, Yi Jin, Daniel Hodyss, and Joshua H. Cossuth

to this thermal anomaly, there is an adiabatic reactionary vertical velocity pattern, with upward motion to the right of the tilt and downward motion to the left of the tilt; however, as Frank and Ritchie (1999 , 2001 ) showed, and as demonstrated here ( Figs. 13a,b ), in the presence of moisture, vertical motion becomes collocated with the cold anomaly. Explicitly, the vertical mass flux maximum is coincident with the total condensed water of the column maximum, and the cold anomaly is

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T. Connor Nelson, Lee Harrison, and Kristen L. Corbosiero

theoretical still-air fall speed of a sonde given the density ( ρ ) profile. Density is defined as the moist ideal gas density using virtual temperature. In situations where moisture data were unavailable, temperature was used instead of virtual temperature. The still-air fall speeds from Eq. (6) can be used with Eq. (2) and a hydrostatic, or differential pressure (∂ p /∂ t ), indicated fall speed ( V f ), similar to recent studies (e.g., Wang et al. 2015 ; Stern et al. 2016 ): (7) V f = 1 ρ g ∂ p

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Shixuan Zhang, Zhaoxia Pu, and Christopher Velden

moisture and upper-level warming in the region around the storm center (e.g., r = 0–350 km) have been shown to be essential for rapid intensification (RI) ( Malkus and Riehl 1960 ; Holland 1997 ; Zhang and Chen 2012 ; Chen and Zhang 2013 ). Thus, VI-CTRL presents less favorable conditions for RI of Hurricane Gonzalo, compared with VI-AMV. These results help explain why VI-CTRL does not capture the RI of Hurricane Gonzalo. Fig . 15. The azimuthally averaged relative humidity (green contours in 5

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