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Ricardo Martins Campos, Vladimir Krasnopolsky, Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves, and Stephen G. Penny

improvement of the operational wave ensemble compared to the deterministic run, the GWES still suffers from shortcomings that limit its skill, especially associated with systematic errors that vary with forecast time and location. The GWES currently uses the conservative arithmetic ensemble mean (EM), as shown in Eq. (1) : (1) EM = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n p i , where n is the number of ensemble members and p i is the state of the i th ensemble member. The major advantage of the conservative approach is that

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