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Rémi Tailleux

-left and bottom-left panels strongly suggest that σ jk is primarily controlled by p jk at leading order, which is confirmed by the regression analysis depicted in the bottom-right panel. Although it would be in principle possible to modify our optimization procedure to constrain the piecewise pressure values p ijk to be close to actual pressures, this was not done here, in order to see whether the procedure would do it on its own or not. Rather, p ijk was just imposed to lie within the range of

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Sandy Grégorio, Thierry Penduff, Guillaume Sérazin, Jean-Marc Molines, Bernard Barnier, and Joël Hirschi

lines respectively represent the nonlinear (LOESS-based) trends fitted to and then removed from the 32- and 309-yr raw time series. The first 18 yr, shown in gray, are discarded from all simulations. The long-term trends found in AMOC z and time series in each simulation were removed at all latitudes by fitting local regression models (Loess; Cleveland et al. 1992 ; Cleveland and Loader 1996 ), which act as a nonlinear high-pass temporal filter with negligible endpoint effects. To remove

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