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Lars Wiegand, Arwen Twitchett, Cornelia Schwierz, and Peter Knippertz

represented by a surrounding ellipsoidal envelope. Recall that only matched PV streamers in forecast and analysis are used for this approach. The number of unmatched members per lead time and center is given in Table 1 . The center of the ellipse is the mean over all matched ensemble members and the orientation of the main axis is determined by linear regression. The length of this axis is calculated, so that the ellipse encompasses either 90% of the forecast streamer center points or the point with the

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