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Thomas Loridan, Ryan P. Crompton, and Eugene Dubossarsky

1. Introduction Tropical cyclone (TC) winds can wreak havoc on communities by directly damaging properties, crops, and threatening human lives; or indirectly from their contribution to TC-induced storm surge, waves, and flood risk. As a result, considerable resources have been invested in TC risk assessment and warning systems. Risk assessment (e.g., Vickery et al. 2009 ) and real-time probabilistic forecasting (e.g., DeMaria et al. 2009 , 2013 ; Sampson et al. 2016 ) typically employ large

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Stephen Cusack and Alberto Arribas

assessment of its quality requires analysis of the whole forecast pdf. The assessment of the performance of prediction systems is used to inform both end users and system developers. Information on forecast quality can influence the decisions made by end users and provide direction to the system’s research and development efforts. In practice, short- and medium-range probabilistic forecasts are assessed using real-time forecasts over a certain period of time (typically a few months). However, in the case

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John T. Allen, Michael K. Tippett, Yasir Kaheil, Adam H. Sobel, Chiara Lepore, Shangyao Nong, and Andreas Muehlbauer

; Changnon 1977 ; Nelson and Young 1979 ; Cox and Armstrong 1981 ; Cheng et al. 1985 ; Sánchez et al. 1996 ; Heymsfield et al. 2014 ; Brown et al. 2015 ). These elements present an important part of the potential for economic losses to agriculture and property. The significance of large hail to the country motivates an analysis of just how large hailstones can get over the United States, leveraging both climatology and extrapolation of the likelihood of large hail. To explore the spatial risk

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Adam H. Sobel, Chia-Ying Lee, Suzana J. Camargo, Kyle T. Mandli, Kerry A. Emanuel, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, and M. Mahakur

assessment of the city’s current and future risk. Most of the sources provide little detail or description of the 1882 event. Many of them are simply lists of the worst tropical cyclone disasters in known world history, with the Bombay cyclone of 1882 included among them. One source ( Longshore 2008 ) provides a paragraph; this is the most extensive description of which we are aware. No text of which we are aware listing or describing the Bombay cyclone of 1882 cites any primary historical source. There

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Chia-Ying Lee, Michael K. Tippett, Suzana J. Camargo, and Adam H. Sobel

assumption that monthly averaged fields represents conditions on the 15th of each month, the monthly reanalysis fields are first linearly interpolated to the day of the forecast time. The same method has been used for studying TC statistics ( Emanuel 2000 ), and TC risk assessment ( Emanuel et al. 2006 ). Interpolating data onto the day instead of holding the data constant throughout a month avoids any discontinuity when a storm lives across two months. Then, the predictors are linearly interpolated to

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Mateusz Taszarek and Jakub Gromadzki


Using historical sources derived from 12 Polish digital libraries, an investigation into killer tornado events was carried out. Although some of the cases took place more than 150 years ago, it was still possible to identify tornado phenomena and the course of events. This study has shown that historical sources contain dozens of tornado reports, sometimes with information precise enough to reconstruct the tornado damage paths. In total, 26 newly identified deadly tornado cases were derived from the historical sources and the information on 11 currently known was expanded. An average of 1–2 killer tornadoes with 5 fatalities may be depicted for each decade and this rate is decreasing over time. It was estimated that 5%–10% of significant tornadoes in Poland have caused fatalities and the average number of fatalities per significant tornado was roughly 0.27. Most of the cases were reported in late July and early August. The majority of deaths and injuries were associated with victims being lifted or crushed by buildings (usually a wooden barn). Most of these cases took place in rural areas but some tornadoes hit urban areas, causing a higher number of fatalities. The spatial distribution of cases included maxima in the central lowland and south-central upland of Poland. In a noticeable fraction of cases (38%), large hail occurred either before or after passage of the tornado.

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Sid-Ahmed Boukabara, Kevin Garrett, and V. Krishna Kumar

board other polar-orbiting satellites including MetOp-A / B , the Communications/Navigation Outage Forecast System ( C / NOFS ), the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, and TerraSAR-X . As satellite programs transition to the next generation of sensors, and launch schedules or mission continuity requirements are changed due to fiscal constraints, there is a risk of degradation in coverage from the satellite GOS. The first risk is the loss of secondary or backup satellite

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Angelo Riccio

resolution) was centered on the Campania region. Figure 1 depicts a map of the innermost domain and the location of the monitoring sites whose data have been used for the assessment of the MM5 model performance. Simulations were performed for the 1 May–30 September 2001 period. We used a “typical” model configuration: the initial and lateral boundary conditions were derived from the surface and pressure level analysis fields coming from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF

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Mark D. Powell and Samuel H. Houston

risk leading to a weak building code that may jeopardize life and property. Unfortunately, noncommissioned ASOS stations in Destin, Florida; St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands; and St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands, experienced power losses that prevented complete data archival. ASOS systems need to be retrofitted to allow for supplemental power and threshold-activated storage of high-resolution wind measurements and sea level pressure. Acknowledgments James Franklin, Steve Feuer, Neal

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Daniel S. Wilks and Allan H. Murphy

's attitude toward risk.1. Introduction A significant fraction of the agricultural land inwestern Oregon is devoted to forage crops for feedingsheep and cattle (Miles, 1983). Improved fields in thisarea are typically grass-legume mixtures. Cool temperatures and excessive soil moisture in winter, togetherwith low summer rainfall, limit the utilization of thesefields to spring and early summer. Successful preservation of the spring growth as a single cutting of suncured hay in June produces the maximum

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