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Maria J. Molina
,
Travis A. O’Brien
,
Gemma Anderson
,
Moetasim Ashfaq
,
Katrina E. Bennett
,
William D. Collins
,
Katherine Dagon
,
Juan M. Restrepo
, and
Paul A. Ullrich

), and thus typically comprises phenomena of subseasonal (minimum of 2 weeks) or longer time scales ( Fig. 1 ), which can have natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and orbital cycles that impact insolation) and/or anthropogenic sources [e.g., greenhouse gases (GHG) and sulfate/biomass burning aerosols; Ghil 2002 ; Salinger 2005 ]. Weather phenomena that can cause extremes include, for example, tropical cyclones (TCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs; Fig. 1 ). While

Open access
Yun Fan
,
Vladimir Krasnopolsky
,
Huug van den Dool
,
Chung-Yu Wu
, and
Jon Gottschalck

and seasonal factors such as the state of El Niño, soil moisture, snow, and sea ice, along with others, is not yet well established for subseasonal forecasts. Sharma et al. (2017) and Pan et al. (2019) studied precipitation forecasts in the eastern United States and the West Coast from short to extended range and found the current state-of-the-art models provide little useful forecast skill beyond week 1–2. Numerical forecast of the atmospheric rivers, atmospheric blocking, and tropical

Free access
Dan Lu
,
Goutam Konapala
,
Scott L. Painter
,
Shih-Chieh Kao
, and
Sudershan Gangrade

, Le et al. (2019) applied LSTM for flood forecasting based on 24 years of daily data with 18 years of data for training, 5 years for validation, and the remaining 2 years for testing. Tian et al. (2018) trained the LSTM models with 10 years of daily data and validated streamflow simulation at two river basins using another 5 years. Kratzert et al. (2019a) considered 30 years of daily data and trained LSTM on 15 years and tested the performance on the remaining 15 years. Regardless of the

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Hanoi Medina
,
Di Tian
,
Fabio R. Marin
, and
Giovanni B. Chirico

. Atlantic Forest is the second-largest rain forest of the American continent and one of the world’s regions hosting the biggest biodiversity. Annual rainfall is between 1000 and 3000 mm. The Brazilian Pampa represents 2.07% of the national territory and lies within the South Temperate Zone ( Roesch et al. 2009 ). The annual precipitation in the region is around 1200–1600 mm. The Pantanal wetland is a complex of seasonally inundated floodplains along the upper Paraguay River, located mostly in Brazil

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Yaling Liu
,
Dongdong Chen
,
Soukayna Mouatadid
,
Xiaoliang Lu
,
Min Chen
,
Yu Cheng
,
Zhenghui Xie
,
Binghao Jia
,
Huan Wu
, and
Pierre Gentine

-020-10234-7 He , J. , X. Bian , Y. Fu , and Y. Qin , 2012 : Research on water consumption and its law of main crops in west Liaohe River plain . Jieshui Guan’gai , 11 , 1 – 4 . Hirschi , M. , and Coauthors , 2011 : Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe . Nat. Geosci. , 4 , 17 – 21 , https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1032 . 10.1038/ngeo1032 Huang , P. M. , Y. Li , and M. E. Sumner , 2011 : Handbook of Soil Sciences: Properties and

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Amy McGovern
,
Ryan Lagerquist
,
David John Gagne II
,
G. Eli Jergensen
,
Kimberly L. Elmore
,
Cameron R. Homeyer
, and
Travis Smith

extreme weather patterns such as tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and synoptic-scale fronts ( Liu et al. 2016 ; Mahesh et al. 2018 ; Kunkel et al. 2018 ; Lagerquist et al. 2019b ). The authors have extensive experience using ML to improve forecasting and understanding of weather phenomena ( Gagne et al. 2017a , b ; Lagerquist et al. 2017 ; McGovern et al. 2017; Gagne et al. 2019 ; Lagerquist et al. 2018 ). Many of these products have been used by human meteorologists in experiments and day

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Akhil Sanjay Potdar
,
Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter
,
Devon Woods
, and
Manabendra Saharia

flash flooding, geomorphological parameters were derived from the National Elevation Dataset (NED; http://ned.usgs.gov/ ) digital elevation model (DEM) across the CONUS. To ensure compatibility between DEM-based flow accumulations and the actual river network, flow accumulation and direction was extracted by delineating basins with USGS stations, and the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD; http://nhd.usgs.gov/ ) was used to resample the 30-m DEM to a 1-km grid. The geomorphologic parameters for

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Imme Ebert-Uphoff
and
Kyle Hilburn

. Pattern complexity is very difficult to evaluate for several reasons: 1) patterns can only be evaluated after NN training is completed; 2) techniques for discovering patterns, such as feature visualization ( Olah et al. 2017 , 2018 ), to date only provide limited answers; and 3) feature visualization is even more challenging for meteorological imagery, because it tends to have amorphous boundaries (e.g., clouds, atmospheric rivers, ocean eddies) ( Karpatne et al. 2019 ) rather than the crisp

Full access
Ryan Lagerquist
,
Amy McGovern
,
Cameron R. Homeyer
,
David John Gagne II
, and
Travis Smith

, the northern Great Plains, and the Ohio River valley—would greatly improve performance there. Fig . 8. Regional performance of the GridRad model on testing data: (a) number of examples, (b) number of tornadic examples (or “events”), (c) AUC, (d) CSI, (e) POD, and (f) FAR. Each grid cell is 100 km × 100 km. Fig . 9. As in Fig. 8 , but for MYRORSS. Figures 10 – 13 show extreme cases: the 100 best hits, worst false alarms, worst misses, and best correct nulls in the testing data ( Table 7 ). These

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