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Kyle C. Armour, Cecilia M. Bitz, LuAnne Thompson, and Elizabeth C. Hunke

1. Introduction Sea ice can be viewed in two distinct area categories: first-year (FY) ice that was formed since the summer minimum in the previous September and multiyear (MY) ice that has survived at least one summer melt season (see Fig. 1 ). Recent estimates of the FY and MY ice area by direct observation and by model estimates of sea ice age ( Johannessen et al. 1999 ; Comiso 2002 ; Rigor and Wallace 2004 ; Nghiem et al. 2007 ; Maslanik et al. 2007 ; Kwok et al. 2009 ; Hunke and

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Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth and Cecilia M. Bitz

1. Introduction Over the last few years, interest in Arctic sea ice predictability has grown mainly as a consequence of the recent decline in Arctic sea ice. Stakeholders include groups as diverse as resource extraction, shipping, and local traditional hunting industries. The extreme melt in 2007 triggered an organization of yearly summer forecasts called the Sea Ice Outlook project under the auspices of the Study for Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH). The outlook project has become an

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Ingrid H. Onarheim, Tor Eldevik, Lars H. Smedsrud, and Julienne C. Stroeve

1. Introduction The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice is one of the clearest indicators of ongoing climate change ( Serreze and Barry 2011 ). Along with reduced sea ice cover in both extent and thickness ( Kwok and Rothrock 2009 ; Cavalieri and Parkinson 2012 ), the multiyear ice cover is decreasing ( Maslanik et al. 2007 ; Nghiem et al. 2007 ), the melt season is extending ( Stroeve et al. 2014 ), and drift speeds and deformation rates are increasing ( Rampal et al. 2009 ). The current Arctic

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Claire L. Parkinson

1. Introduction Sea ice has received considerable attention in recent years, largely because of significant decreases in the Arctic sea ice cover ( Parkinson et al. 1999 ; Rothrock et al. 1999 ; Kwok and Rothrock 2009 ; Cavalieri and Parkinson 2012 ; Stroeve et al. 2012 ) and the fact that those decreases are an important indicator of climate change ( Walsh 2013 ) and have important consequences for climate ( Screen et al. 2013 ; Walsh 2013 ; Vihma 2014 ), for the Arctic ecosystem ( Post

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R. W. Lindsay, J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern

1. Introduction Arctic sea ice retreated dramatically in the summer of 2007, shattering the previous record low ice extent set in 2005 by 23% ( Stroeve et al. 2008 ; Comiso et al. 2008 ). Figure 1 shows the extent of the Arctic sea ice each September (the month of minimum extent) since the beginning of the satellite data record in 1979. The extent in 2007 falls 4 standard deviations of the residuals (4 σ ) below the downward linear trend for 1979–2006. What caused this precipitous drop? The

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S. Close, M.-N. Houssais, and C. Herbaut

1. Introduction The climate of the Arctic has been reported to have undergone substantial change over recent decades, manifest notably in increasing air temperature (e.g., Serreze et al. 2009 ) and decreasing sea ice extent (e.g., Maslanik et al. 2007 ; Comiso et al. 2008 ), particularly in summer. While the winter sea ice loss has thus far been much less dramatic than that of summer, the changes occurring in this season are nevertheless important, both because of their link to large

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Marika M. Holland, David A. Bailey, Bruce P. Briegleb, Bonnie Light, and Elizabeth Hunke

1. Introduction Sea ice is a sensitive indicator of climate change and reductions in Arctic ice cover have been considerable over the satellite record since 1979 (e.g., Serreze et al. 2007 ). Climate models project that Arctic sea ice loss will continue into the future with the possibility of ice-free summers occurring within this century (e.g., Holland et al. 2006 ; Wang and Overland 2009 ; Boe et al. 2009 ). Accompanying this rapid sea ice loss is an amplified warming in Arctic regions (e

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Jinlun Zhang

, satellite passive microwave images display a significant increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration and extent since 1979 when quality space-based observations are available ( Cavalieri and Parkinson 2003 ; Liu et al. 2004 ). The increase in the observed sea ice extent is 0.027 × 10 12 m 2 yr −1 (0.22% yr −1 ) during 1979–2004 ( Fig. 2d ; Table 1 ), based on the Hadley Centre global sea ice concentration data (HADISST; Rayner et al. 2003 ). This positive trend exceeds the 95% confidence level

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Zachary Labe, Gudrun Magnusdottir, and Hal Stern

1. Introduction Climate in the Arctic is undergoing rapid change, as the Arctic mean surface temperature is rising at twice the rate of the global mean surface temperature. Accompanying this Arctic amplification is a widespread loss of Arctic sea ice. Quality observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and, therefore, total sea ice extent (SIE) are available from satellites covering the entire Arctic from 1979. Observations of sea ice thickness (SIT) are very scant by comparison (e.g., Lindsay

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Yue Wu, David P. Stevens, Ian A. Renfrew, and Xiaoming Zhai

( Marshall and Schott 1999 ; Blindheim and Østerhus 2005 ). Convective mixing connects the near surface with the deep ocean ( Marshall and Schott 1999 ), while sea ice cover acts as a barrier to heat fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean ( Day et al. 2013 ). Convection can take place in each of the basins of the Nordic seas, with the deepest convection in the Greenland Sea, often reaching depths greater than 800 m ( Swift and Aagaard 1981 ). Open ocean convection traditionally requires a

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