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Wei Mei, Shang-Ping Xie, and Ming Zhao

1. Introduction Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most devastating weather events on Earth with extremely important societal impacts (e.g., Pielke and Landsea 1998 ; Pielke et al. 2008 ). In addition, these powerful storms potentially play important roles in the climate system by affecting heat transport ( Emanuel 2001 ; Sriver and Huber 2007 ; Korty et al. 2008 ; Mei et al. 2013 ). An adequate understanding of TC variability and the underlying mechanisms helps to improve the accuracy

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Chao Wang and Liguang Wu

1. Introduction Tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause enormous damages to islands and coastal areas (e.g., Pielke and Landsea 1998 ; Pielke et al. 2008 ; Zhang et al. 2009 ) and it is pragmatically important to know how TC activity will change in a warming climate ( Knutson et al. 2010 ; Walsh et al. 2016 ). Considerable efforts have been made to understand the future change of TC behaviors ( Henderson-Sellers et al. 1998 ; Walsh 2004 ; Knutson et al. 2010 ; Walsh et al. 2016 ). So far, the

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Hamish A. Ramsay, Savin S. Chand, and Suzana J. Camargo

tracks extending over a semi-continuous zone from the east coast of Africa (~30°E) to the central South Pacific (~120°W). They typically form from November to April (94%), with a climatological peak from January to March (64%) ( Gray 1968 ; Schreck et al. 2014 ; Ramsay 2017 ). The islands of the South Pacific are especially vulnerable to the impacts of TCs; a notable example is severe Tropical Cyclone Pam (March 2015), which struck the islands of Vanuatu causing catastrophic damage, the

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Anne S. Daloz, S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, J. A. Jonas, D. Kim, T. LaRow, Y.-K. Lim, C. M. Patricola, M. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, D. Shaevitz, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao

latitudes, cluster 2 storms tend to appear over the Gulf of Mexico, and cluster 4 storms appear over the Caribbean Sea. Finally, cluster 3 storms develop over a band going from the Caribbean Islands to the West African coast. Some differences appear when using the tracking scheme from Zhao et al. (2009) ( Fig. 3c ). Clusters 2 and 4 are similar for the three tracking schemes, but some differences appear for clusters 1 and 3. The genesis points of cluster 1 are located farther north, while more genesis

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Rongqing Han, Hui Wang, Zeng-Zhen Hu, Arun Kumar, Weijing Li, Lindsey N. Long, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Peitao Peng, Wanqiu Wang, Dong Si, Xiaolong Jia, Ming Zhao, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Timothy E. LaRow, Young-Kwon Lim, Siegfried D. Schubert, Suzana J. Camargo, Naomi Henderson, Jeffrey A. Jonas, and Kevin J. E. Walsh

corresponding centroids in the models are listed at the tops of (c)–(n). The TC origins in the observations ( Fig. 4b ) are characterized by two regions of large concentrations: one located in the eastern SCS and the other from the east of the Philippine islands to the west of 160°E, both between 5° and 20°N. The FSU, GFDL, and GSFC models exhibit distributions somewhat similar to the observations ( Figs. 4i,j,l ), though the FSU distribution is too narrow meridionally. However, the GISS model shows some

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