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Eric D. Loken, Adam J. Clark, Amy McGovern, Montgomery Flora, and Kent Knopfmeier

), probability of false detection (POFD), success ratio (SR), bias, and critical success index (CSI) can then be obtained [e.g., see Eqs. (3)–(7) in Loken et al. 2017 ]. These metrics form the basis of other forecast evaluation tools used herein, such as the ROC curve ( Mason 1982 ) and performance diagram ( Roebber 2009 ). ROC curves plot POD against POFD at multiple forecast probability thresholds (here, 1%, 2%, and 5%–95% in intervals of 5%). Area under the ROC curve (AUC) provides a measure of forecast

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