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Fuqing Zhang, Yonghui Weng, Jason A. Sippel, Zhiyong Meng, and Craig H. Bishop

errors that society will always have to cope with ( Pielke 1997 ). Such inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts highlight the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessments. In practice, despite an increasing role and the demonstrated benefits of using ensembles in aiding deterministic hurricane forecasting ( Krishnamurti et al. 1999 ), the uncertainty involved with today’s operational hurricane forecasts is still

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