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C-P. Chang, T-C. Yeh, and J. M. Chen

Abstract

The island of Taiwan is situated in the main path of western North Pacific typhoons. Its dominant central mountain range (CMR), with a hoizontal scale comparable to the radius of a typhoon, often produces significant distortions in the typhoon circulation. A 20-year dataset from 22 surface stations is used to describe the effects of the Taiwan terrain on the surface structure of typhoons.

Empirical orthogonal function analysis on the pressure field is used to identify the primary structure modes. The first mode is a uniform-sign anomaly pattern portraying the decrease in pressure as a typhoon is approaching. The second mode represents the strong terrain-induced west-east pressure gradient that is normal to the main axis of the CMR. The third mode results mainly from the west-cast pressure gradient arising from the relative location of the typhoon center to the east or west of Taiwan, but it also contains a weak south-north pressure gradient that can he attributed to the terrain. A regression technique is then used to determine the surface wind, temperature, relative humidity, and hourly rainfall associated with each pressure mode. In all cases, them fields are consistent, showing the effects of the terrain blocking or deflection and their consequent ascending and descending motions.

The relative importance of each mode depends strongly on the location of the typhoon center. No dependence on the direction or speed of motion is discernible when all cases are considered. When different, persistently smooth tracks are identified, the variations due to motion direction can be recognized because the terrain effect is affected by the mean steering flow. Only two types of smooth tracks that represent clearly different steering flows intersect in an area. At the intersection, a subsequent difference in storm structure over Taiwan exists that can be explained by the difference in the steering flows associated with the two track types.

The leeside secondary low that was often observed on the west coast of Taiwan is found to consist of at least two basic modes. It develops only when the typhoon center is in southeastern Taiwan or an ocean area to the east-southeast. The observed scale of this low is significantly smaller than that which can be produced by an interaction of the mean steering flow and the CMR. This smaller scale is due to a local buildup of the surface pressure south of the lee vortex, which results from the against-mountain return flow of the cyclonic circulation.

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C. Prabhakara, I. Wang, A. T. C. Chang, and P. Gloersen

Abstract

The Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) brightness temperature measurements over the global oceans have been examined with the help of statistical and empirical techniques. Such analyses show that zonal averages of brightness temperature measured by SMMR, over the oceans, on a large scale are primarily influenced by the water vapor in the atmosphere. Liquid water in the clouds and rain, which has a much smaller spatial and temporal scale, contributes substantially to the variability of the SMMR measurements within the latitudinal zones. The surface wind not only increase the surface emissivity but through its interactions with the atmosphere produces correlations, in the SMMR brightness temperature data, that have significant meteorological implications. It is found that a simple meteorological model can explain the general characteristics of these data. With the help of this model, methods are developed for investigation of surface temperature, liquid water content in the atmosphere, and surface wind speed over the global oceans. Monthly mean estimates of the sea surface temperature and surface winds are compared with ship measurements. Estimates of liquid water content in the atmosphere are consistent with earlier satellite measurements.

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C. P. Chang, F. T. Jacobs, and B. B. Edwards

Abstract

A diagnostic model is proposed to use digitized satellite cloud brightness data to estimate objectively the large-scale flow patterns over data-void tropical regions. The model utilizes a linear barotropic vorticity equation with two primary assumptions: 1) that the area-averaged cloud brightness is positively correlated with large-scale divergence in the tropical upper troposphere; and 2) that the large-scale tropical flow is quasi-barotropic and quasi-non-divergent. It is designed to be used at any upper tropospheric level where divergence is important in determining the vorticity field. Three types of information are required: 1) boundary conditions determined from surrounding wind reports, 2) a mean zonal flow determined from climatology, and 3) an equivalent divergence forcing function constructed empirically from the brightness data.

The model is tested daily over a western North Pacific region for July-August 1971. Results for an 8-day representative period are presented and discussed. In general for 25% of the days tested, the model produces a flow field which accurately resembles the major features of the streamfunction field analyzed by the National Meteorological Center. In another 30% of the days it provides some valuable information about the flow patterns which would be difficult to obtain from boundary information alone. Experiments are also performed for two days in which the brightness data are enhanced by time-interpolated satellite infrared data. The resultant flow fields bear better resemblance to the NMC analysis. It is thus suggested that improved results may be expected when infrared and other types of advanced satellite data are available.

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C-P. Chang, J. E. Millard, and G. T. J. Chen

Abstract

The surface pressure, temperature, dew point and wind data over the South China Sea and vicinity during Winter MONEX are examined to determine the timing of the passage of cold surges at various reporting stations. It is found that for more than half of the surge cases during Winter MONEX, a surge occurs in two stages separated by a time interval of several hours to approximately one day. The first stage is often characterized by a significant rise in pressure, while the second stage by a sharp decrease in dew point temperature. Freshening of surface winds may accompany either or both stages. The time separation between the two stages is relatively short at the upstream stations but generally long at the downstream stations. The second stage is associated with a frontal passage. On the other hand, the first stage is not clearly associated with any significant synoptic events. From its very fast propagation speed which increases with an inferred depth scale, and an increase in the local cross-isobar angle of the surface wind during passage, the first stage is identified with a synoptic-scale gravity wave type motion.

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G. T. J. Chen, Y. J. Wang, and C-P. Chang

Abstract

This study compares the systematic errors of 36-h surface cyclone and anticyclone forecasts for two operational numerical weather prediction models over East Asia and the western North Pacific Ocean: the U.S. Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and Japan Meteorological Agency's Fine-mesh Limited Area Model (JFLM). The study is carried out for the 1983 Mei-Yu season (May–July), which is the wettest season over East Asia based on nontyphoon-produced rainfall. All available 0000 and 1200 GMT forecast runs are evaluated against an independent dataset of subjective analysis produced operationally by the Central Weather Bureau, Taipei. The mean position errors, mean central pressure errors and forecast skill indices for both cyclones and anticyclones in the NOGAPS and JFLM models are examined.

Both NOGAPS and JFLM models are more likely to underforecast than to overforecast the existence and/or genesis of both cyclones and anticyclones. However, over the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity, both models tend to overforecast the existence and/or genesis of cyclones. They also forecast both cyclones and anticyclones too slow and too far to the north.

Diurnal variations in central pressure errors suggest that the error source is the lack of radiation processes in the JFLM and too strong a diurnal cycle of radiation processes in NOGAPS. Also, the failure to treat adequately the bulk effects of cumulus convection seems to be primarily responsible for the poor forecasts of oceanic cyclone development.

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A. T. C. Chang, L. S. Chiu, and G. Yang

Abstract

Four and a half years of the global monthly oceanic rain rates derived from the DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) F-8 SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave/Imager) data are used to study the diurnal cycles. Annual mean rainfall maps based on the SSM/I morning and evening observations are presented, and their differences are examined using a paired t test. The morning estimates are larger than the afternoon estimates by about 20% over the oceanic region between 50°S and 50°N, with significant differences located mainly along the intertropical convergence zone region. Using the measurements from two satellites, either DMSP F-8 and F-10 or DMSP F-10 and F-11, amplitudes and phases of the 24-h harmonic are estimated. The diurnal cycle shows a nocturnal or early morning maximum in 35%–40% of the oceanic regions. Monte Carlo simulations show that the rms errors associated with the estimated amplitude and phase are about 100% and 2 h, respectively, mainly due to the large random errors (50%) associated with the present rainfall estimates and the nonoptimal separation times of the DMSP satellite sampling.

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W. Viezee, H. Shigeishi, and A. T. C. Chang

Abstract

We describe a research study in which we explored the application to rainfall prediction of cloud liquid water data obtained from the SCAMS experiment of Nimbus 6. The study area is the Pacific Northwest coast of the United States, where rainfall is produced by extratropical storms that approach from across the Pacific Ocean.

SCAMS data related to cloud liquid water over the ocean, and coastal rainfall data, are analyzed for 20 different storm systems in the northeastern Pacific Ocean; these produced significant rainfall from Washington to central California during the period October 1975-March 1976. Results show that the distribution of storm-cloud water analyzed from the SCAMS data over the ocean foreshadows the distribution of coastal rainfall accumulated from the storm at a later time.

We conclude that passive microwave sensor measurements of cloud water over the ocean, when used in conjunction with numerical and other objective guidance, can be used to enhance the accuracy of predictions of coastal rainfall distribution.

Limitations in the SCAMS measurements and in the data analysis and interpretation are noted.

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R. T. Williams, H. Lim, and C-P. Chang

Abstract

In this study, nonlinear effects of barotropic instability in a downstream varying easterly jet are studied and compared with previous linear model results of Tupaz and others. The barotropic vorticity equation with Rayleigh friction and forcing is solved with finite differences. The initial mean flow is an easterly Bickley jet whose maximum speed and half-width vary downstream; the half-width ranges from 500 to 1200 km and the maximum speed is 30 m s−1. The time-independent forcing makes the initial mean flow, which is unstable in the central jet region, a steady-state solution to the vorticity equation. A disturbance with wavenumber 10, which is predicted to be locally unstable and most dominant based on linear model results, is added to the initial mean flow. The equation is then integrated numerically for 450 days.

The solutions may be separated into two phases: 1) an initial adjustment phase which consists of several ∼50-day cycles wherein an initial wavenumber 10 disturbance grows rapidly in the jet region, and then the disturbance energy shifts to a slightly longer wavelength and decays before the next cycle; and 2) a quasi-equilibrium phase which is achieved after 350 days. Fourier analysis of the disturbance streamfunction at each point during a typical interval in the adjustment phase shows two dominant modes with periods near 3.35 days and 3.58 days, respectively. After entering the quasi-equilibrium phase, a 4-day oscillation develops in the kinetic energy and the main periods of the streamfunction become 4 and 2 days, respectively. The former is the dominant mode and the latter is the result of the nonlinear self-interaction by the former. The frequency of the dominant mode is equal to the frequency of the most unstable mode from a parallel flow calculation based on the outflow region mean flow. However, in most of the unstable region, it is much less than the most unstable local frequency inferred from the parallel flow solution.

The dominant mode in the quasi-equilibrium phase propagates through the modified mean flow essentially as a linear wave, and its behavior can be compared with the linear model results. However, its maximum growth rate is 25% larger than the highest local growth rate for the parallel flow solution. This “enhancement effect” is also larger than was found by Tupaz and others. In addition, there is a hysteresis effect wherein the growth rate curve and the phase structure from the full model are shifted downstream relative to the parallel flow solution, similar to the linear model results. On the other hand, the wavelength is generally short in the jet region and much longer in the outer regions, opposite to the wavelength variation in Tupaz and others. With the help of a generalized Rossby wave formula, it is shown that two effects determine the downstream variation of the disturbance wavelength: 1) the variation of the latitudinal integral of the mean zonal wind and 2) the variation of the latitudinal integral of the mean absolute vorticity gradient. Due to the difference in disturbance scale, the second effect dominates in the quasi-equilibrium phase of this study while the first effect dominates the linear model used by Tupaz and others.

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Edward Rodgers, Honnappa Siddalingaiah, A. T. C. Chang, and Thomas Wilheit

Abstract

At 37 GHz, the frequency at which the Nimbus 6 Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR 6) measures upwelling radiance, it has been shown theoretically that the atmospheric scattering and the relative independence on electromagnetic polarization of the radiances emerging from hydrometeors make it possible to monitor remotely active rainfall over land. In order to verify experimentally these theoretical findings and to develop an algorithm to monitor rainfall over land, the digitized ESMR 6 measurements were examined statistically.

Horizontally and vertically polarized brightness temperature pairs (TH,TV) from ESMR 6 were sampled for areas of rainfall over land as determined from the rain recording stations and the WSR 57 radar, and areas of wet and dry ground (whose thermodynamic temperatures were greater than 5°C) over the southeastern United States. These three categories of brightness temperatures were found to be significantly different in the sense that the chances that the mean vectors of any two populations coincided were less than 1 in 100. Since these categories were significantly different, classification algorithms were then developed. Three decision rules were examined: the Fisher linear classifier, the Bayesian quadratic classifier, and a non-parametric linear classifier. The Bayesian algorithm was found to perform best, particularly at a higher confidence level. An independent test case analysis showed that a rainfall area delineated by the Bayesian classifier coincided well with the synoptic-scale rainfall area mapped by ground recording rain data and radar echoes.

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J. B. Tupaz, R. T. Williams, and C-P. Chang

Abstract

The structure and behavior of barotropically unstable and stable waves in the vicinity of a zonally varying easterly jet are studied numerically with a linearized barotropic vorticity equation on a β plane. The easterly jet is approximated by a Bickley jet with a slow zonal variation. The numerical results are also compared with a simple mechanistic analytical model using the local phase speed and growth rate concepts. In several aspects the results are grossly similar to that expected from the parallel flow theory of barotropic instability. However, in the unstable region the resultant structure of the waves causes a spatial growth rate greater than predicted by the local growth rates computed with a parallel flow model. In the stable region, the structure leads to a strong dynamic damping. When a uniform advective velocity is added to a variable mean flow, the difference between the magnitude of the growth rate of the computed waves and that implied by the parallel flow theory is somewhat reduced. However, in this case a stronger zonal asymmetry in the spatial growth rate curve with respect to the jet maximum occurs as a result of slower adjustment of the wave structure to the local stability conditions.

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