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Paul A. Levine, James T. Randerson, Yang Chen, Michael S. Pritchard, Min Xu, and Forrest M. Hoffman

Abstract

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of climate and carbon cycle variability in the Amazon. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive teleconnections with temperature directly through changes in atmospheric circulation. These circulation changes also impact precipitation and, consequently, soil moisture, enabling additional indirect effects on temperature through land–atmosphere coupling. To separate the direct influence of ENSO SST anomalies from the indirect effects of soil moisture, a mechanism-denial experiment was performed to decouple their variability in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) forced with observed SSTs from 1982 to 2016. Soil moisture variability was found to amplify and extend the effects of SST forcing on eastern Amazon temperature and carbon fluxes in E3SM. During the wet season, the direct, circulation-driven effect of ENSO SST anomalies dominated temperature and carbon cycle variability throughout the Amazon. During the following dry season, after ENSO SST anomalies had dissipated, soil moisture variability became the dominant driver in the east, explaining 67%–82% of the temperature difference between El Niño and La Niña years, and 85%–91% of the difference in carbon fluxes. These results highlight the need to consider the interdependence between temperature and hydrology when attributing the relative contributions of these factors to interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Specifically, when offline models are forced with observations or reanalysis, the contribution of temperature may be overestimated when its own variability is modulated by hydrology via land–atmosphere coupling.

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Neil I. Fox, Rob Webb, John Bally, Michael W. Sleigh, Clive E. Pierce, David M. L. Sills, Paul I. Joe, James Wilson, and Chris G. Collier

Abstract

One of the principal aims of the Sydney 2000 Forecast Demonstration Project was to assess the utility of advanced nowcasting systems to operational severe weather forecasters. This paper describes the application of the products of a variety of systems by forecasters during a severe weather event in Sydney, Australia, on 3 November 2000. During this day a severe storm developed to the south of the metropolitan area and tracked north producing large, damaging hail, heavy rainfall, and at least three tornadoes. A number of severe weather warnings were issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to a variety of customers throughout the day.

This paper investigates how the novel nowcast products were used by the forecasters and the impact they had on the forecast and warning dissemination procedure. The products used are contrasted with those that were available or could have been made available at various stages of the storm development and the efficiency of use of these products is discussed. The severe weather forecasters expressed their satisfaction with the systems and believed that the additional information enhanced the quality and timeliness of the warnings issued during the event.

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Wayne M. Angevine, Christoph J. Senff, Allen B. White, Eric J. Williams, James Koermer, Samuel T. K. Miller, Robert Talbot, Paul E. Johnston, Stuart A. McKeen, and Tom Downs

Abstract

Air pollution episodes in northern New England often are caused by transport of pollutants over water. Two such episodes in the summer of 2002 are examined (22–23 July and 11–14 August). In both cases, the pollutants that affected coastal New Hampshire and coastal southwest Maine were transported over coastal waters in stable layers at the surface. These layers were at least intermittently turbulent but retained their chemical constituents. The lack of deposition or deep vertical mixing on the overwater trajectories allowed pollutant concentrations to remain strong. The polluted plumes came directly from the Boston, Massachusetts, area. In the 22–23 July case, the trajectories were relatively straight and dominated by synoptic-scale effects, transporting pollution to the Maine coast. On 11–14 August, sea breezes brought polluted air from the coastal waters inland into New Hampshire.

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Juanzhen Sun, Ming Xue, James W. Wilson, Isztar Zawadzki, Sue P. Ballard, Jeanette Onvlee-Hooimeyer, Paul Joe, Dale M. Barker, Ping-Wah Li, Brian Golding, Mei Xu, and James Pinto

Traditionally, the nowcasting of precipitation was conducted to a large extent by means of extrapolation of observations, especially of radar ref lectivity. In recent years, the blending of traditional extrapolation-based techniques with high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) is gaining popularity in the nowcasting community. The increased need of NWP products in nowcasting applications poses great challenges to the NWP community because the nowcasting application of high-resolution NWP has higher requirements on the quality and content of the initial conditions compared to longer-range NWP. Considerable progress has been made in the use of NWP for nowcasting thanks to the increase in computational resources, advancement of high-resolution data assimilation techniques, and improvement of convective-permitting numerical modeling. This paper summarizes the recent progress and discusses some of the challenges for future advancement.

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Bart Geerts, David J. Raymond, Vanda Grubišić, Christopher A. Davis, Mary C. Barth, Andrew Detwiler, Petra M. Klein, Wen-Chau Lee, Paul M. Markowski, Gretchen L. Mullendore, and James A. Moore

Abstract

Recommendations are presented for in situ and remote sensing instruments and capabilities needed to advance the study of convection and turbulence in the atmosphere. These recommendations emerged from a community workshop held on 22–24 May 2017 at the National Center for Atmospheric Research and sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Four areas of research were distinguished at this workshop: i) boundary layer flows, including convective and stable boundary layers over heterogeneous land use and terrain conditions; ii) dynamics and thermodynamics of convection, including deep and shallow convection and continental and maritime convection; iii) turbulence above the boundary layer in clouds and in clear air, terrain driven and elsewhere; and iv) cloud microphysical and chemical processes in convection, including cloud electricity and lightning.

The recommendations presented herein address a series of facilities and capabilities, ranging from existing ones that continue to fulfill science needs and thus should be retained and/or incrementally improved, to urgently needed new facilities, to desired capabilities for which no adequate solutions are as yet on the horizon. A common thread among all recommendations is the need for more highly resolved sampling, both in space and in time. Significant progress is anticipated, especially through the improved availability of airborne and ground-based remote sensors to the National Science Foundation (NSF)-supported community.

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Gretchen Keppel-Aleks, James T. Randerson, Keith Lindsay, Britton B. Stephens, J. Keith Moore, Scott C. Doney, Peter E. Thornton, Natalie M. Mahowald, Forrest M. Hoffman, Colm Sweeney, Pieter P. Tans, Paul O. Wennberg, and Steven C. Wofsy

Abstract

Changes in atmospheric CO2 variability during the twenty-first century may provide insight about ecosystem responses to climate change and have implications for the design of carbon monitoring programs. This paper describes changes in the three-dimensional structure of atmospheric CO2 for several representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) using the Community Earth System Model–Biogeochemistry (CESM1-BGC). CO2 simulated for the historical period was first compared to surface, aircraft, and column observations. In a second step, the evolution of spatial and temporal gradients during the twenty-first century was examined. The mean annual cycle in atmospheric CO2 was underestimated for the historical period throughout the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the growing season net flux in the Community Land Model (the land component of CESM) was too weak. Consistent with weak summer drawdown in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes, simulated CO2 showed correspondingly weak north–south and vertical gradients during the summer. In the simulations of the twenty-first century, CESM predicted increases in the mean annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 and larger horizontal gradients. Not only did the mean north–south gradient increase due to fossil fuel emissions, but east–west contrasts in CO2 also strengthened because of changing patterns in fossil fuel emissions and terrestrial carbon exchange. In the RCP8.5 simulation, where CO2 increased to 1150 ppm by 2100, the CESM predicted increases in interannual variability in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes of up to 60% relative to present variability for time series filtered with a 2–10-yr bandpass. Such an increase in variability may impact detection of changing surface fluxes from atmospheric observations.

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Kerri A. Pratt, Andrew J. Heymsfield, Cynthia H. Twohy, Shane M. Murphy, Paul J. DeMott, James G. Hudson, R. Subramanian, Zhien Wang, John H. Seinfeld, and Kimberly A. Prather

Abstract

During the Ice in Clouds Experiment–Layer Clouds (ICE-L), aged biomass-burning particles were identified within two orographic wave cloud regions over Wyoming using single-particle mass spectrometry and electron microscopy. Using a suite of instrumentation, particle chemistry was characterized in tandem with cloud microphysics. The aged biomass-burning particles comprised ∼30%–40% by number of the 0.1–1.0-μm clear-air particles and were composed of potassium, organic carbon, elemental carbon, and sulfate. Aerosol mass spectrometry measurements suggested these cloud-processed particles were predominantly sulfate by mass. The first cloud region sampled was characterized by primarily homogeneously nucleated ice particles formed at temperatures near −40°C. The second cloud period was characterized by high cloud droplet concentrations (∼150–300 cm−3) and lower heterogeneously nucleated ice concentrations (7–18 L−1) at cloud temperatures of −24° to −25°C. As expected for the observed particle chemistry and dynamics of the observed wave clouds, few significant differences were observed between the clear-air particles and cloud residues. However, suggestive of a possible heterogeneous nucleation mechanism within the first cloud region, ice residues showed enrichments in the number fractions of soot and mass fractions of black carbon, measured by a single-particle mass spectrometer and a single-particle soot photometer, respectively. In addition, enrichment of biomass-burning particles internally mixed with oxalic acid in both the homogeneously nucleated ice and cloud droplets compared to clear air suggests either preferential activation as cloud condensation nuclei or aqueous phase cloud processing.

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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Benjamin A. Cash, James L. Kinter III, Cristiana Stan, Thomas Jung, Lawrence Marx, Peter Towers, Nils Wedi, Jennifer M. Adams, Eric L. Altshuler, Bohua Huang, Emilia K. Jin, and Julia Manganello

Abstract

Global simulations have been conducted with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational model run at T1279 resolution for multiple decades representing climate from the late twentieth and late twenty-first centuries. Changes in key components of the water cycle are examined, focusing on variations at short time scales. Metrics of coupling and feedbacks between soil moisture and surface fluxes and between surface fluxes and properties of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are inspected. Features of precipitation and other water cycle trends from coupled climate model consensus projections are well simulated. Extreme 6-hourly rainfall totals become more intense over much of the globe, suggesting an increased risk for flash floods. Seasonal-scale droughts are projected to escalate over much of the subtropics and midlatitudes during summer, while tropical and winter droughts become less likely. These changes are accompanied by an increase in the responsiveness of surface evapotranspiration to soil moisture variations. Even though daytime PBL depths increase over most locations in the next century, greater latent heat fluxes also occur over most land areas, contributing a larger energy effect per unit mass of air, except over some semiarid regions. This general increase in land–atmosphere coupling is represented in a combined metric as a “land coupling index” that incorporates the terrestrial and atmospheric effects together. The enhanced feedbacks are consistent with the precipitation changes, but a causal connection cannot be made without further sensitivity studies. Nevertheless, this approach could be applied to the output of traditional climate change simulations to assess changes in land–atmosphere feedbacks.

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Rainer Bleck, Jian-Wen Bao, Stanley G. Benjamin, John M. Brown, Michael Fiorino, Thomas B. Henderson, Jin-Luen Lee, Alexander E. MacDonald, Paul Madden, Jacques Middlecoff, James Rosinski, Tanya G. Smirnova, Shan Sun, and Ning Wang

Abstract

A hydrostatic global weather prediction model based on an icosahedral horizontal grid and a hybrid terrain-following/isentropic vertical coordinate is described. The model is an extension to three spatial dimensions of a previously developed, icosahedral, shallow-water model featuring user-selectable horizontal resolution and employing indirect addressing techniques. The vertical grid is adaptive to maximize the portion of the atmosphere mapped into the isentropic coordinate subdomain. The model, best described as a stacked shallow-water model, is being tested extensively on real-time medium-range forecasts to ready it for possible inclusion in operational multimodel ensembles for medium-range to seasonal prediction.

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David M. Schultz, Lance F. Bosart, Brian A. Colle, Huw C. Davies, Christopher Dearden, Daniel Keyser, Olivia Martius, Paul J. Roebber, W. James Steenburgh, Hans Volkert, and Andrew C. Winters

Abstract

The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the international collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. This chapter describes the history of scientific inquiry into the structure, evolution, and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, their constituent fronts, and their attendant jet streams and storm tracks. We refer to these phenomena collectively as the centerpiece of meteorology because of their central role in fostering meteorological research during this century. This extremely productive period in extratropical cyclone research has been possible because of 1) the need to address practical challenges of poor forecasts that had large socioeconomic consequences, 2) the intermingling of theory, observations, and diagnosis (including dynamical modeling) to provide improved physical understanding and conceptual models, and 3) strong international cooperation. Conceptual frameworks for cyclones arise from a desire to classify and understand cyclones; they include the Norwegian cyclone model and its sister the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model. The challenge of understanding the dynamics of cyclones led to such theoretical frameworks as quasigeostrophy, baroclinic instability, semigeostrophy, and frontogenesis. The challenge of predicting explosive extratropical cyclones in particular led to new theoretical developments such as potential-vorticity thinking and downstream development. Deeper appreciation of the limits of predictability has resulted from an evolution from determinism to chaos. Last, observational insights led to detailed cyclone and frontal structure, storm tracks, and rainbands.

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