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Christopher M. Rozoff, Christopher S. Velden, John Kaplan, James P. Kossin, and Anthony J. Wimmers

Abstract

The probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Ocean basins is examined here using a series of logistic regression models trained on environmental and infrared satellite-derived features. The environmental predictors are based on averaged values over a 24-h period following the forecast time. These models are compared against equivalent models enhanced with additional TC predictors created from passive satellite microwave imagery (MI). Leave-one-year-out cross validation on the developmental dataset shows that the inclusion of MI-based predictors yields more skillful RI models for a variety of RI and intensity thresholds. Compared with the baseline forecast skill of the non-MI-based RI models, the relative skill improvements from including MI-based predictors range from 10.6% to 44.9%. Using archived real-time data during the period 2004–13, evaluation of simulated real-time models is also carried out. Unlike in the model development stage, the simulated real-time setting involves using Global Forecast System forecasts for the non-satellite-based predictors instead of “perfect” observational-based predictors in the developmental data. In this case, the MI-based RI models still generate superior skill to the baseline RI models lacking MI-based predictors. The relative improvements gained in adding MI-based predictors are most notable in the Atlantic, where the non-MI versions of the models suffer acutely from the use of imperfect real-time data. In the Atlantic, relative skill improvements provided from the inclusion of MI-based predictors range from 53.5% to 103.0%. The eastern Pacific relative improvements are less impressive but are still uniformly positive.

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Erin M. Dougherty, John Molinari, Robert F. Rogers, Jun A. Zhang, and James P. Kossin

Abstract

Hurricane Bonnie (1998) was an unusually resilient hurricane that maintained a steady-state intensity while experiencing strong (12–16 m s−1) vertical wind shear and an eyewall replacement cycle. This remarkable behavior was examined using observations from flight-level data, microwave imagery, radar, and dropsondes over the 2-day period encompassing these events. Similar to other observed eyewall replacement cycles, Bonnie exhibited the development, strengthening, and dominance of a secondary eyewall while a primary eyewall decayed. However, Bonnie’s structure was highly asymmetric because of the large vertical wind shear, in contrast to the more symmetric structures observed in other hurricanes undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. It is hypothesized that the unusual nature of Bonnie’s evolution arose as a result of an increase in vertical wind shear from 2 to 12 m s−1 even as the storm intensified to a major hurricane in the presence of high ambient sea surface temperatures. These circumstances allowed for the development of outer rainbands with intense convection downshear, where the formation of the outer eyewall commenced. In addition, the circulation broadened considerably during this time. The secondary eyewall developed within a well-defined beta skirt in the radial velocity profile, consistent with an earlier theory. Despite the large ambient vertical wind shear, the outer eyewall steadily extended upshear, supported by 35% larger surface wind speed upshear than downshear. The larger radius of maximum winds during and after the eyewall replacement cycle might have aided Bonnie’s resiliency directly, but also increased the likelihood that diabatic heating would fall inside the radius of maximum winds.

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Kimberly J. Mueller, Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, James P. Kossin, and Thomas H. Vonder Haar

Abstract

Geostationary infrared (IR) satellite data are used to provide estimates of the symmetric and total low-level wind fields in tropical cyclones, constructed from estimations of an azimuthally averaged radius of maximum wind (RMAX), a symmetric tangential wind speed at a radius of 182 km (V182), a storm motion vector, and the maximum intensity (VMAX). The algorithm is derived using geostationary IR data from 405 cases from 87 tropical systems in the Atlantic and east Pacific Ocean basins during the 1995–2003 hurricane seasons that had corresponding aircraft data available. The algorithm is tested on 50 cases from seven tropical storms and hurricanes during the 2004 season. Aircraft-reconnaissance-measured RMAX and V182 are used as dependent variables in a multiple linear regression technique, and VMAX and the storm motion vector are estimated using conventional methods. Estimates of RMAX and V182 exhibit mean absolute errors (MAEs) of 27.3 km and 6.5 kt, respectively, for the dependent samples. A modified combined Rankine vortex model is used to estimate the one-dimensional symmetric tangential wind field from VMAX, RMAX, and V182. Next, the storm motion vector is added to the symmetric wind to produce estimates of the total wind field. The MAE of the IR total wind retrievals is 10.4 kt, and the variance explained is 53%, when compared with the two-dimensional wind fields from the aircraft data for the independent cases.

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Christopher M. Rozoff, Wayne H. Schubert, Brian D. McNoldy, and James P. Kossin

Abstract

Intense tropical cyclones often possess relatively little convection around their cores. In radar composites, this surrounding region is usually echo-free or contains light stratiform precipitation. While subsidence is typically quite pronounced in this region, it is not the only mechanism suppressing convection. Another possible mechanism leading to weak-echo moats is presented in this paper. The basic idea is that the strain-dominated flow surrounding an intense vortex core creates an unfavorable environment for sustained deep, moist convection. Strain-dominated regions of a tropical cyclone can be distinguished from rotation-dominated regions by the sign of S 2 1 + S 2 2ζ 2, where S 1 = uxυy and S 2 = υx + uy are the rates of strain and ζ = υxuy is the relative vorticity. Within the radius of maximum tangential wind, the flow tends to be rotation-dominated (ζ 2 > S 2 1 + S 2 2), so that coherent structures, such as mesovortices, can survive for long periods of time. Outside the radius of maximum tangential wind, the flow tends to be strain-dominated (S 2 1 + S 2 2 > ζ 2), resulting in filaments of anomalous vorticity. In the regions of strain-dominated flow the filamentation time is defined as τ fil = 2(S 2 1 + S 2 2ζ 2)−1/2. In a tropical cyclone, an approximately 30-km-wide annular region can exist just outside the radius of maximum tangential wind, where τ fil is less than 30 min and even as small as 5 min. This region is defined as the rapid filamentation zone. Since the time scale for deep moist convective overturning is approximately 30 min, deep convection can be significantly distorted and even suppressed in the rapid filamentation zone. A nondivergent barotropic model illustrates the effects of rapid filamentation zones in category 1–5 hurricanes and demonstrates the evolution of such zones during binary vortex interaction and mesovortex formation from a thin annular ring of enhanced vorticity.

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Matthew Sitkowski, James P. Kossin, Christopher M. Rozoff, and John A. Knaff

Abstract

Flight-level aircraft data are used to examine inner-core thermodynamic changes during eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) and the role of the relict inner eyewall circulation on the evolution of a hurricane during and following an ERC. Near the end of an ERC, the eye comprises two thermodynamically and kinematically distinct air masses separated by a relict wind maximum, inside of which high inertial stability restricts radial motion creating a “containment vessel” that confines the old-eye air mass. Restricted radial flow aloft also reduces subsidence within this confined region. Subsidence-induced warming is thus focused along the outer periphery of the developing post-ERC eye, which leads to a flattening of the pressure profile within the eye and a steepening of the gradient at the eyewall. This then causes a local intensification of the winds in the eyewall. The cessation of active convection and subsidence near the storm center, which has been occurring over the course of the ERC, leads to an increase in minimum pressure. The increase in minimum pressure concurrent with the increase of winds in the developing eyewall can create a highly anomalous pressure–wind relationship. When the relict inner eyewall circulation dissipates, the air masses are free to mix and subsidence can resume more uniformly over the entire eye.

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Kenneth R. Knapp, Jessica L. Matthews, James P. Kossin, and Christopher C. Hennon

Abstract

The Cyclone Center project maintains a website that allows visitors to answer questions based on tropical cyclone satellite imagery. The goal is to provide a reanalysis of satellite-derived tropical cyclone characteristics from a homogeneous historical database composed of satellite imagery with a common spatial resolution for use in long-term, global analyses. The determination of the cyclone “type” (curved band, eye, shear, etc.) is a starting point for this process. This analysis shows how multiple classifications of a single image are combined to provide probabilities of a particular image’s type using an expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm. Analysis suggests that the project needs about 10 classifications of an image to adequately determine the storm type. The algorithm is capable of characterizing classifiers with varying levels of expertise, though the project needs about 200 classifications to quantify an individual’s precision. The EM classifications are compared with an objective algorithm, satellite fix data, and the classifications of a known classifier. The EM classifications compare well, with best agreement for eye and embedded center storm types and less agreement for shear and when convection is too weak (termed no-storm images). Both the EM algorithm and the known classifier showed similar tendencies when compared against an objective algorithm. The EM algorithm also fared well when compared to tropical cyclone fix datasets, having higher agreement with embedded centers and less agreement for eye images. The results were used to show the distribution of storm types versus wind speed during a storm’s lifetime.

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Carl J. Schreck III, Lei Shi, James P. Kossin, and John J. Bates

Abstract

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial waves are the dominant modes of synoptic-to-subseasonal variability in the tropics. These systems have frequently been examined with proxies for convection such as outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). However, upper-tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) gives a more complete picture of tropical circulations because it is more sensitive to the drying and warming associated with subsidence. Previous studies examined tropical variability using relatively short (3–7 yr) UTWV datasets. Intersatellite calibration of data from the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) has recently produced a homogeneous 32-yr climate data record of UTWV for 200–500 hPa. This study explores the utility of HIRS UTWV for identifying the MJO and equatorial waves.

Spectral analysis shows that the MJO and equatorial waves stand out above the low-frequency background in UTWV, similar to previous findings with OLR. The fraction of variance associated with the MJO and equatorial Rossby waves is actually greater in UTWV than in OLR. Kelvin waves, on the other hand, are overshadowed in UTWV by horizontal advection from extratropical Rossby waves.

For the MJO, UTWV identifies subsidence drying in the subtropics, poleward of the convection. These dry anomalies are associated with the MJO’s subtropical Rossby gyres. MJO events with dry anomalies over the central North Pacific Ocean also amplify the 200-hPa flow pattern over North America 7 days later. These events cannot be identified using equatorial OLR alone, which demonstrates that UTWV is a useful supplement for identifying the MJO, equatorial waves.

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Christopher M. Rozoff, David S. Nolan, James P. Kossin, Fuqing Zhang, and Juan Fang

Abstract

The Weather and Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used to simulate secondary eyewall formation (SEF) in a tropical cyclone (TC) on the β plane. The simulated SEF process is accompanied by an outward expansion of kinetic energy and the TC warm core. An absolute angular momentum budget demonstrates that this outward expansion is predominantly a symmetric response to the azimuthal-mean and wavenumber-1 components of the transverse circulation. As the kinetic energy expands outward, the kinetic energy efficiency in which latent heating can be retained as local kinetic energy increases near the developing outer eyewall.

The kinetic energy efficiency associated with SEF is examined further using a symmetric linearized, nonhydrostatic vortex model that is configured as a balanced vortex model. Given the symmetric tangential wind and temperature structure from WRF, which is close to a state of thermal wind balance above the boundary layer, the idealized model provides the transverse circulation associated with the symmetric latent heating and friction prescribed from WRF. In a number of ways, this vortex response matches the azimuthal-mean secondary circulation in WRF. These calculations suggest that sustained azimuthal-mean latent heating outside of the primary eyewall will eventually lead to SEF. Sensitivity experiments with the balanced vortex model show that, for a fixed amount of heating, SEF is facilitated by a broadening TC wind field.

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James P. Kossin, Thomas R. Karl, Thomas R. Knutson, Kerry A. Emanuel, Kenneth E. Kunkel, and James J. O’Brien
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Stephanie C. Herring, Andrew Hoell, Martin P. Hoerling, James P. Kossin, Carl J. Schreck III, and Peter A. Stott
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