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Kuiping Li, Lin Feng, Yanliang Liu, Yang Yang, Zhi Li, and Weidong Yu

Abstract

The intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) activate in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), exhibiting distinct seasonal contrasts in active regions and propagating features. The seasonal northward migration of the ISO activity initiates in spring–early summer, composed of two stages. Strong ISO activity first penetrates into the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) around mid-April, and then extends to the northern Arabian Sea (AS) by mid-May. The northward-propagating ISOs (NPISOs) during their initiation periods, which are referred to as the primary northward-propagating (PNP) events, are analyzed with regard to the BoB and the AS, respectively. In terms of the BoB PNP event, the northward branch could be observed only in the BoB, and the eastward movement is still clear as the winter ISOs. For the AS PNP event, a strong northward branch spreads across the wider northern IO, as obvious as the summer ISOs. The relative roles of the seasonal environmental fields in modulating the PNP events are diagnosed based on a 2.5-layer atmospheric model. The results indicate that the seasonal variations of the surface moisture dominantly regulate the BoB PNP event, while both the surface moisture and the vertical wind shear are necessary for the AS PNP event. Additionally, the leading BoB PNP event is hypothesized to potentially act as a precondition of the following AS PNP event in terms of their internal ISO reinitiation processes and in terms of creating a favorable easterly shear environment in the northern IO.

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Weiyi Sun, Bin Wang, Jian Liu, Deliang Chen, Chaochao Gao, Liang Ning, and Lin Chen

Abstract

The impact of northern high-latitude volcanic (NHV) eruptions on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated based on ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model. The seasonality of the atmospheric circulation influences the NHV aerosol dispersion, causing stronger (weaker) Northern Hemisphere cooling after the January and April (July and October) eruptions. ENSO’s response is found to be more dependent on NHV eruption seasons than that on tropical eruption seasons. The January eruption causes an El Niño in an eruption year [year (0) hereafter] while an El Niño occurs in year (1) after the October eruption. No significant El Niño occurs after the April (July) eruption. A diagnostic analysis reveals that these El Niños’ developments are attributed to the positive zonal, meridional advective, and thermocline feedbacks, triggered by the western Pacific westerly anomalies. The anomalous North Pacific cyclone (NPC) and Asian monsoon are key systems to excite anomalous westerlies, which are caused by the NHV-induced midlatitude cooling and Eurasian continent–North Pacific thermal contrast. After the January eruption, the anomalous NPC develops in early summer and connects with a weakened Asian summer monsoon, which excites anomalous westerlies over the Indo-western Pacific, activating the Bjerknes feedback. For the October eruption, the anomalous NPC and enhanced East Asian winter monsoon bring cold air to the Maritime Continent and warm the subtropical central North Pacific through surface heat flux exchange, exciting the westerly anomalies. These results suggest that the strong dependence on the seasonal timing of NHV should be a critical element of data–model comparisons.

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Chia-Ping Cheng, Hen-I Lin, Simon Wang, Po-Ting Dean Liu, and Kung-Yueh Camyale Chao
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Yan Du, Shang-Ping Xie, Ya-Li Yang, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Lin Liu, and Gang Huang

Abstract

This study evaluates the simulation of the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and relevant physical processes in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Historical runs from 20 CMIP5 models are available for the analysis. They reproduce the IOB mode and its close relationship to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Half of the models capture key IOB processes: a downwelling oceanic Rossby wave in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precedes the IOB development in boreal fall and triggers an antisymmetric wind anomaly pattern across the equator in the following spring. The anomalous wind pattern induces a second warming in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) through summer and sustains anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northwest Pacific by radiating a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave. The second warming in the NIO is indicative of ocean–atmosphere interaction in the interior TIO. More than half of the models display a double peak in NIO warming, as observed following El Niño, while the rest show only one winter peak. The intermodel diversity in the characteristics of the IOB mode seems related to the thermocline adjustment in the south TIO to ENSO-induced wind variations. Almost all the models show multidecadal variations in IOB variance, possibly modulated by ENSO.

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Y.-C. Lin, L.-Y. Oey, J. Wang, and K.-K. Liu

Abstract

Annual Rossby waves in northern South China Sea had previously been studied using altimetry and model data; however, how they connect to subsurface temperature fluctuations has not been examined. This study analyzed a 22-month, surface to −500-m temperature time series at 18.3°N, 115.5°E, together with satellite and other data, to show the arrivals near z ≈ −300 m and deeper cool (warm) Rossby waves after their generation near the Luzon Strait in winter (summer). Temperature fluctuations with time scales of a few weeks, and with maximum anomalies near z ≈ −100 m, were also found embedded in the smooth Rossby waves and caused by propagating eddies. Eddy fluctuations and propagation past the mooring were of two types: southwestward from southwestern Taiwan, triggered by Kuroshio intrusion that produced anticyclone–cyclone pairs in late fall and winter, and eddies propagating westward from Luzon forced by annual anomalies of wind stress curl and Kuroshio path in the Luzon Strait

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Ming Li, Jiping Liu, Zhenzhan Wang, Hui Wang, Zhanhai Zhang, Lin Zhang, and Qinghua Yang

Abstract

Reanalysis projects and satellite data analysis have provided surface wind over the global ocean. To assess how well one can reconstruct the variations of surface wind in the data-sparse Southern Ocean, sea surface wind speed data from 1) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy reanalysis (NCEP–DOE), 2) the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), 3) National Climate Data Center (NCDC) blended sea winds, and 4) cross-calibrated multiplatform (CCMP) ocean surface velocity are evaluated. First, the accuracy of sea surface wind speed is validated with quality-controlled in situ measurements from research vessels. The results show that the CCMP value is closer to the ship observations than other products, whereas the NCEP–DOE value has the largest systematic positive bias. All four products show large positive biases under weak wind regimes, good agreement with the ship observations under moderate wind regimes, and large negative biases under high wind regimes. Second, the consistency and discrepancy of sea surface wind speed across different products is examined. The intercomparisons suggest that these products show encouraging agreement in the spatial distribution of the annual-mean sea surface wind speed. The largest across-data scatter is found in the central Indian sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which is comparable to its respective interannual variability. The monthly-mean correlations between pairs of products are high. However, differing from the decadal trends of NCEP–DOE, NCDC, and CCMP that show an increase of sea surface wind speed in the Antarctic Circumpolar region, ERA-Interim has an opposite sign there.

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Zhijuan Liu, Xiaoguang Yang, Xiaomao Lin, Kenneth G. Hubbard, Shuo Lv, and Jing Wang

Abstract

Northeast China (NEC) is one of the major agricultural production areas in China, producing about 30% of China’s total maize output. In the past five decades, maize yields in NEC increased rapidly. However, farmer yields still have potential to be increased. Therefore, it is important to quantify the impacts of agronomic factors, including soil physical properties, cultivar selections, and management practices on yield gaps of maize under the changing climate in NEC in order to provide reliable recommendations to narrow down the yield gaps. In this study, the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Maize model was used to separate the contributions of soil physical properties, cultivar selections, and management practices to maize yield gaps. The results indicate that approximately 5%, 12%, and 18% of potential yield loss of maize is attributable to soil physical properties, cultivar selection, and management practices. Simulation analyses showed that potential ascensions of yield of maize by improving soil physical properties PAYs, changing to cultivar with longer maturity PAYc, and improving management practices PAYm for the entire region were 0.6, 1.5, and 2.2 ton ha−1 or 9%, 23%, and 34% increases, respectively, in NEC. In addition, PAYc and PAYm varied considerably from location to location (0.4 to 2.2 and 0.9 to 4.5 ton ha−1 respectively), which may be associated with the spatial variation of growing season temperature and precipitation among climate zones in NEC. Therefore, changing to cultivars with longer growing season requirement and improving management practices are the top strategies for improving yield of maize in NEC, especially for the north and west areas.

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Yan Zhang, Hong-Hai Zhang, Gui-Peng Yang, and Qiu-Lin Liu

Abstract

The total suspended particulate (TSP) samples over the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea were collected during two cruises in spring and autumn in 2012. Concentrations of water-soluble ions {Na+, K+, NH4 +, Mg2+, Ca2+, Cl, NO3 , SO4 2−, and CH3SO3 [methanesulfonic acid (MSA)]} and trace metals (Al, Pb, Zn, Cd, Cu, and V) were measured. Mass concentrations of TSP samples ranged from 65.2 to 136 μg m−3 in spring and from 15.9 to 70.3 μg m−3 in autumn, with average values of 100 ± 22.4 and 40.2 ± 17.8 μg m−3, respectively. The aerosol was acidic throughout the sampling periods according to calculation of equivalent concentrations of the cations (NH4 +, nss-Ca2+, and nss-K+) and anions (nss-SO4 2− and NO3 ). Correlation analysis and enrichment factors revealed that the aerosol composition in the coastal marine atmosphere had a feature of a mixture of air masses: that is, crustal, marine, and anthropogenic emissions. Trace metals were enriched by a wide range of 1–103, and enrichment factors for crustal source (EFc) were relatively higher in spring. Species like Cd, Zn, and Pb had an overwhelming contribution from anthropogenic sources. In addition, the concentrations of MSA varied from 0.0075 to 0.17 and from 0.0019 to 0.018 μg m−3 during the spring and autumn cruises, respectively, with means of 0.061 and 0.012 μg m−3, respectively. Based on the observed MSA and nss-SO4 2− concentrations in spring and autumn, the relative biogenic sulfur contributions to nss-SO4 2− were estimated to be 8.0% and 3.5% on average, respectively, implying that anthropogenic sources had a dominant contribution to the sulfur budget over the observational area.

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Yonggang Liu, Yubin Wu, Zhongda Lin, Yang Zhang, Jiang Zhu, and Chaolu Yi

Abstract

Glaciers over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding regions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were much more extensive than during the preindustrial period (PI). The climate impact of such glacial expansion is studied here using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4). To cover the range of uncertainty in glacier area during the LGM, the following three values are tested: 0.35 × 106, 0.53 × 106, and 0.70 × 106 km2. The added glacier is distributed approximately equally over the Pamir region and the Himalayas. If 0.70 × 106 km2 is used, the annual mean surface temperature of the glaciated regions would be cooled by ~3.5°C. The annual mean precipitation would be reduced by 0.2 mm day−1 (10%) and 2.5 mm day−1 (24%) over the Pamir region and Himalayas, respectively. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the glaciers changes by 0.55 m yr−1 (280%) and −0.32 m yr−1 (−20%) over the two regions, respectively. The changes in SMB remain large (0.29 and −0.13 m yr−1), even if the area of the Tibetan glacier were 0.35 × 106 km2. Therefore, based on the results of this particular model, the expansion of glaciers can either enhance or slow the glacial growth. Moreover, the expansion of glaciers over the Himalayas reduces summer precipitation in central and northern China by ~0.5 mm day−1 and increases summer precipitation in southern Asia by ~0.6 mm day−1. The expansion of glaciers over the Pamir region has a negligible influence on the precipitation in these monsoonal regions, which is likely due to its large distance from the main monsoonal regions.

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Kaiming Hu, Gang Huang, Xiao-Tong Zheng, Shang-Ping Xie, Xia Qu, Yan Du, and Lin Liu

Abstract

The present study investigates interdecadal modulations of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the climate of the northwest Pacific (NWP) and East Asia (EA) in early boreal summer following a winter ENSO event, based on 19 simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In the historical run, 8 out of 19 models capture a realistic relationship between ENSO and NWP early summer climate—an anomalous anticyclone develops over the NWP following a winter El Niño event—and the interdecadal modulations of this correlation. During periods when the association between ENSO and NWP early summer climate is strong, ENSO variance and ENSO-induced anomalies of summer sea surface temperature (SST) and tropospheric temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) all strengthen relative to periods when the association is weak.

In future projections with representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5, the response of TIO SST, tropospheric temperature, and NWP anomalous anticyclone to ENSO all strengthen regardless of ENSO amplitude change. In a warmer climate, low-level specific humidity response to interannual SST variability strengthens following the Clausius–Clapeyron equation. The resultant intensification of tropospheric temperature response to interannual TIO warming is suggested as the mechanism for the strengthened ENSO effect on NWP–EA summer climate.

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