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Sihua Huang, Bin Wang, Zhiping Wen, and Zesheng Chen

Abstract

Previous studies found a tight connection between the tropical easterly jet (TEJ) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Here we show that the TEJ–ISMR relationship is nonstationary and breaks down from 1994 to 2003 (epoch P2), in contrast to the significant positive correlation during epochs P1 (1979–93) and P3 (2004–16). The breakdown of the TEJ–ISMR relationship concurs with the increased rainfall variability over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO). The enhanced TEIO rainfall anomalies excite a significant lower-level cyclonic circulation that reduces the ISMR and meanwhile strengthen the upper-level divergence and excite a pair of upper-level anticyclones to the west of the TEIO as Rossby wave responses, both accelerating the TEJ. Thus, the TEIO rainfall plays a more important role than the ISMR in TEJ variability during P2, causing the breakdown of the TEJ–ISMR relationship. In contrast, a relatively weak amplitude of the TEIO rainfall during P1 and P3 was unable to change the positive TEJ–ISMR relationship. The changes in the TEIO rainfall variability are mainly attributed to the increased SST variability over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean, but their cause remains elusive.

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Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Wen Chen, and Debashis Nath

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The multidecadal fluctuations in the patterns and teleconnections of the winter mean Arctic Oscillation (AO) are investigated based on observational and reanalysis datasets. Results show that the Atlantic center of the AO pattern remains unchanged throughout the period 1920–2010, whereas the Pacific center of the AO is strong during 1920–59 and 1986–2010 and weak during 1960–85. Consequently, the link between the AO and the surface air temperature over western North America is strong during 1920–59 and 1986–2010 and weak during 1960–85. The time-varying Pacific center of the AO motivates a revisit to the nature of the AO from the perspective of decadal change. It reveals that the North Pacific mode (NPM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are the inherent regional atmospheric modes over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Their patterns over the North Pacific and North Atlantic remain stable and change little with time during 1920–2010. The Atlantic center of the AO always resembles the NAO over the North Atlantic, but the Pacific center of the AO only resembles the NPM over the North Pacific when the NPM–NAO coupling is strong. These results suggest that the AO seems to be fundamentally rooted in the variability over the North Atlantic and that the annular structure of the AO very likely arises from the coupling of the atmospheric modes between the North Pacific and North Atlantic.

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Xiuzhen Li, Wen Zhou, Deliang Chen, Chongyin Li, and Jie Song

Abstract

The water vapor transport and moisture budget over eastern China remotely forced by the cold-tongue (CT) and warm-pool (WP) El Niño show striking differences throughout their lifetime. The water vapor transport response is weak in the developing summer but strong in the remaining phases of CT El Niño, whereas the opposite occurs during WP El Niño. WP El Niño causes a moisture deficit over the Yangtze River valley (YZ) in the developing summer and over southeastern China (SE) in the developing fall, whereas CT El Niño induces a moisture surplus first over SE during the developing fall with the influential area expanding in the decaying spring and shifting northward in the decaying summer. It is the divergence of meridional water vapor transport that dominates the total water vapor divergence anomaly, with the divergence of zonal transport showing an opposite pattern with smaller magnitude.

Investigation of the vertical profile of moisture budget shows a great baroclinicity, with the strongest abnormal moisture budget occurring in different levels. The moisture transport via the southern boundary plays a crucial role in the regional moisture budget anomalies and is located near the surface over SE, in the lower troposphere over the YZ, and at the lower-middle troposphere over the eastern part of northern China. The enhanced moisture surplus near the surface forced by WP El Niño over SE in the mature winter and decaying spring is offset by a moisture deficit within the lower-middle troposphere due to a diverse response circulation at different vertical levels.

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Lin Wang, Peiqiang Xu, Wen Chen, and Yong Liu

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Based on several reanalysis and observational datasets, this study suggests that the Silk Road pattern (SRP), a major teleconnection pattern stretching across Eurasia in the boreal summer, shows clear interdecadal variations that explain approximately 50% of its total variance. The interdecadal SRP features a strong barotropic wave train along the Asian subtropical jet, resembling its interannual counterpart. Additionally, it features a second weak wave train over the northern part of Eurasia, leading to larger meridional scale than its interannual counterpart. The interdecadal SRP contributes approximately 40% of the summer surface air temperature’s variance with little uncertainty and 10%–20% of the summer precipitation’s variance with greater uncertainty over large domains of Eurasia. The interdecadal SRP shows two regime shifts in 1972 and 1997. The latter shift explains over 40% of the observed rainfall reduction over northeastern Asia and over 40% of the observed warming over eastern Europe, western Asia, and northeastern Asia, highlighting its importance to the recent decadal climate variations over Eurasia. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) does not show a significant linear relationship with the interdecadal SRP. However, the Monte Carlo bootstrapping resampling analysis suggests that the positive (negative) phases of the spring and summer AMO significantly facilitate the occurrence of negative (positive) phases of the interdecadal SRP, implying plausible prediction potentials for the interdecadal variations of the SRP. The reported results are insensitive to the long-term trends in datasets and thereby have little relevance to externally forced climate change.

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Jinling Piao, Wen Chen, Qiong Zhang, and Peng Hu

Abstract

The moisture supplies over Siberia and Northeast Asia are investigated by comparing their similarities and differences, enlightened by the seesaw pattern in their summer precipitation. Based on the rotated empirical orthogonal functions in the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI_03), Siberia and Northeast Asia are defined as the regions within 55°–70°N, 80°–115°E and 40°–55°N, 90°–115°E, respectively. Our results show that over both regions, evaporation contributes the most to the precipitation amount at the annual time scale, and moisture convergence contributes the most on the interannual time scale. For moisture convergence, both the stationary and transient terms are subject to impacts of the midlatitude westerlies. For the annual cycle, the net moisture supply over both Siberia and Northeast Asia is closely associated with both stationary and transient moisture transport. However, on the interannual time scale, the net moisture convergence is closely related to the stationary term only. The examination of the boundary moisture transport shows that in addition to the zonal component, the meridional stationary moisture transport plays a key role in the net moisture convergence. The transient moisture transport mainly depends on moisture transport through the western and southern boundaries, with a comparable magnitude to that of the stationary one, further confirming the importance of the stationary and transient terms on the moisture supply for the annual cycle. In addition, the circulations responsible for moisture transport anomalies indicate that the stationary moisture circulation is the key factor for the moisture supply anomalies over both Siberia and Northeast Asia, with limited impacts from the transient moisture circulation.

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Lei Song, Lin Wang, Wen Chen, and Yang Zhang

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The East Asian trough (EAT) is a distinct component of the boreal winter circulation whose strength corresponds to the amplitude of the Northern Hemispheric stationary waves. In this study, the mechanism and climatic impacts of the intraseasonal variations of the EAT’s strength are investigated through composite analysis and dynamical diagnostics. The significant roles played by the low-frequency Rossby wave (RW) and synoptic transient eddy (TE) are revealed. Before the peaks of strong EAT events, an upper-tropospheric RW train propagates across northern Eurasia and interacts with preexisting surface cold anomalies over central Siberia. This pattern intensifies the Siberian high and causes RW convergence toward the EAT, leading to 30% of the EAT’s amplification directly via the RW-induced feedback forcing. Meanwhile, RW weakens the background baroclinicity and reduces TE activities near the entrance region of the North Pacific storm track. The TE-induced feedback forcing leads to another 30% of the EAT’s amplification. The evolution and dynamical processes of the weak EAT events generally resemble those of the strong events with opposite signs. These results are consistent with the knowledge on the mechanism of the strong and weak EAT events regarding the role of RWs with additional quantitative description and provide new insights regarding the role of TEs. Variations of the EAT’s strength exert significant climatic impacts on East Asia and its downstream region. Near-surface air temperature is below (above) normal over East Asia during the growth and peak stages of the strong (weak) EAT events and above (below) normal over North America afterward.

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Xiao Feng, Renguang Wu, Jiepeng Chen, and Zhiping Wen

Abstract

The present study investigates the year-to-year variations of September–October rainfall in Hainan, China, for the period 1965–2010. The dominant circulation anomalies feature a cyclone (an anticyclone) over the Indochina Peninsula and northern South China Sea, an anticyclone (a cyclone) over subtropical western North Pacific and lower-level convergence (divergence) over the Maritime Continent in the wet (dry) years. These circulation anomalies are responses to an east–west sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly pattern with negative (positive) SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific and positive (negative) SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent in the wet (dry) years. Although the SST anomaly pattern is similar (but with opposite anomaly), the SST signal in the equatorial central Pacific is more significant in the dry years than in the wet years. This difference indicates a larger case-to-case variability in the wet years than in the dry years. The large variability in the wet years is attributed to contributions of tropical cyclones (TCs) and intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). There are more TCs impinging on Hainan and the TC tracks are closer to the island in the wet years than in the dry years. The rainfall shows large intraseasonal variations with periods of 10–20 and 30–60 days during September–October in the wet years. The 10–20-day ISO originates from the Maritime Continent, whereas the 30–60-day ISO develops over tropical Indian Ocean and propagates northeastward to northern South China Sea. In contrast, the ISO signal is much weaker in the dry years.

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Shuoyi Ding, Wen Chen, Juan Feng, and Hans-F. Graf

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Combined impacts of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and two types of La Niña on climate anomalies in Europe are studied. Particularly, the conjunction of the negative PDO phase and two different types of La Niña events favors strong and significant North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern anomalies with opposite polarity. For the central Pacific (CP) La Niña, a clear positive NAO signal can be detected, which is accompanied by positive surface air temperature (SAT) anomaly and a dipolar structure of precipitation anomalies in Europe. In addition, a typical negative Pacific–North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern forms, including a high pressure anomaly over the southeastern United States, which may contribute to the development and maintenance of the NAO anomaly by strengthening the baroclinicity and the local eddy–mean flow interaction. However, for the eastern Pacific (EP) La Niña, a zonal wave train in the high latitudes can be observed, which is quite different from the typical PNA structure. Here, an anomalous anticyclone over southern Greenland supports a negative NAO pattern through the local eddy–mean flow interaction and the associated vorticity advection. Hence, reversed SAT and precipitation anomalies occur over Europe. Further analyses indicate that the wave trains emanating from the North Pacific and the synoptic eddy–mean flow interaction play essential roles in forming the anomalous NAO phases. The different wave trains for the CP and EP La Niña events may be attributed to the differences in the location and intensity of anomalous convection induced by different types of SST anomaly as well as by the corresponding background westerly wind anomalies in the upper troposphere.

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Jingliang Huangfu, Wen Chen, Ronghui Huang, and Juan Feng

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This paper investigates how La Niña Modoki modulates the impacts of the warm Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) on the boreal summer climate and the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the northwest Pacific (NWP). The results showed that the influence of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) on TC genesis is the primary mechanism during the boreal summer, while La Niña Modoki exerts a secondary influence. However, although the summertime index of the IOBM shows a high negative correlation with the number of TCs generated over the NWP, warm IOBM events without La Niña Modoki have only limited influences on the boreal summertime circulations and TC genesis. The present study showed that when warm IOBM events and La Niña Modoki coexisted, the average location of TC genesis shifted westward, and the annual number of generated TCs substantially decreased. La Niña Modoki–related cold sea surface temperature anomalies over the central Pacific further suppressed convective activities over the eastern NWP compared with warm IOBM events without La Niña Modoki. Upper-level convergence and enlarged tropospheric vertical wind shears both contributed to the weakening of the low-level relative vorticity in the coupled cases, leading to a suppressed NWP monsoon trough. Additionally, together with the weaker moisture supply, the impacts of warm IOBM cases were significantly enhanced under the modulation of La Niña Modoki, leading to poorer TC genesis conditions over the eastern NWP. In addition, the energy conversion processes in the aforementioned modulation showed that joint cases will provide fewer initial disturbance seedlings for TC genesis. These results are useful for further understanding the role of warm IOBM cases in TC genesis over the NWP.

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Xu Zhang, Jian-Wen Bao, Baode Chen, and Evelyn D. Grell

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A new three-dimensional (3D) turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) subgrid mixing scheme is developed using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (WRF-ARW) to address the gray-zone problem in the parameterization of subgrid turbulent mixing. The new scheme combines the horizontal and vertical subgrid turbulent mixing into a single energetically consistent framework, in contrast to the conventionally separate treatment of the vertical and horizontal mixing. The new scheme is self-adaptive to the grid-size change between the large-eddy simulation (LES) and mesoscale limits. A series of dry convective boundary layer (CBL) idealized simulations are carried out to compare the performance of the new scheme and the conventional treatment of subgrid mixing to the WRF-ARW LES dataset. The importance of including the nonlocal component in the vertical buoyancy specification in the newly developed general TKE-based scheme is illustrated in the comparison. The improvements of the new scheme with the conventional treatment of subgrid mixing across the gray-zone model resolutions are demonstrated through the partitioning of the total vertical flux profiles. Results from real-case simulations show the feasibility of using the new scheme in the WRF Model in lieu of the conventional treatment of subgrid mixing.

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