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Yuanyuan Guo, Zhiping Wen, Renguang Wu, Riyu Lu, and Zesheng Chen

Abstract

The leading mode of boreal winter precipitation variability over the tropical Pacific for the period 1980–2010 shows a west–east dipole pattern with one center over the western North Pacific (WNP) and Maritime Continent and the other center over the equatorial central Pacific (CP). Observational evidence shows that the variability of the East Asian upper-tropospheric subtropical westerly jet (EAJ) has a significant correlation with precipitation anomalies over the WNP and CP and that tropical precipitation anomalies over WNP and CP have a distinct influence on the variation of the EAJ. A series of numerical experiments based on a linear baroclinic model are performed to confirm the influence of the heating anomalies associated with precipitation perturbations over the WNP and CP on the EAJ. The results of numerical experiments indicate that a heat source over the WNP can excite a northward-propagating Rossby wave train in the upper troposphere over East Asia and facilitate a poleward eddy momentum flux. It results in the acceleration of the westerlies between 30° and 45°N, which favors a northward displacement of the EAJ. The response induced by a heat sink over the CP features a zonal easterly band between 25° and 40°N, suggesting that the response to heat sink associated with negative precipitation anomalies over the CP may weaken the EAJ. A strengthened relationship was found between tropical Pacific precipitation and the EAJ since 1979. The modeling results suggest that the shift of mean states might be responsible for the strengthened EAJ–rainfall relationship after 1979.

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Jun Li, Yi-Leng Chen, and Wen-Chau Lee

Abstract

A heavy rainfall event during the Taiwan Area Mesoscale Experiment intensive observing period 13 has been studied using upper-air, surface mesonet, and dual-Doppler radar data. The heavy rainfall (≥231 mm day−1) occurred over northwestern Taiwan with the maximum rainfall along the northwestern coast and was caused by a long-lived, convective rainband in the prefrontal atmosphere. It occurred in an upper-level divergence region and along the axis of the maximum equivalent potential temperature at the 850-hPa level.

As a Mei-Yu front advanced southeastward, the postfrontal cold air in the lowest levels was retarded by the hilly terrain along the southeastern China coast. As a result, a low-level wind-shift line associated with a pressure trough at the 850-hPa level moved over the Taiwan Strait before the arrival of the surface front. The westerly flow behind the trough interacted with a barrier jet along the northwestern coast of Taiwan. The barrier jet is caused by the interaction between the prefrontal southwest monsoon flow and the island obstacle. A low-level convergence zone (∼3 km deep) was observed along the wind-shift line between the westerly flow coming off the southeastern China coast and the barrier jet. A long-lived rainband developed within the low-level convergence zone and moved southeastward toward the northwestern Taiwan coast with the wind-shift line.

There were several long-lived (>2 h) reflectivity maxima embedded in the rainband. They often had several individual cells with a much shorter lifetime. The reflectivity maxima formed on the southwestern tip of the rainband and along the low-level wind-shift line. They intensified during their movement from the southwest to the northeast along the rainband. The continuous generation of the reflectivity maxima along the wind-shift line and the intensification of them over the low-level convergence zone maintained the long lifetime of the rainband and produced persistent heavy rainfall along the northwestern coast as these reflectivity maxima moved toward the coast. During the early stage of their lifetime, the reflectivity maxima were observed along the wind-shift line with upward motion in the lower troposphere. As they moved toward the northeastern part of the rainband and matured, the reflectivity maxima were observed southeast of the convergence zone with sinking motion in the lower troposphere. The upward motion was rooted along the wind-shift line and tilted southeastward with height. The reflectivity maxima dissipated as they moved inland. During the early stage of the rainband, the reflectivity maxima on the northeastern part of the rainband also merged with the convective line associated with the land-breeze front offshore of the northwestern coast.

The Mei-Yu front was shallow (<1 km) and moved slowly southward along the western coast. Convection associated with the front was weak with echo tops (∼10 dBZ) below 6 km.

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Lin Wang, Ronghui Huang, Lei Gu, Wen Chen, and Lihua Kang

Abstract

Interdecadal variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and their association with the quasi-stationary planetary wave activity are analyzed by using the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis dataset and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. It is found that the EAWM experienced a significant weakening around the late 1980s; that is, the EAWM was strong during 1976–87 and became weak after 1988. This leads to an obvious increase in the wintertime surface air temperature as well as a decrease in the frequency of occurrence of cold waves over East Asia. The dynamical process through which the EAWM is weakened is investigated from the perspective of quasi-stationary planetary waves. It is found that both the propagation and amplitude of quasi-stationary planetary waves have experienced obvious interdecadal variations, which are well related to those of the EAWM. Compared to the period 1976–87, the horizontal propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves after 1988 is enhanced along the low-latitude waveguide in the troposphere, and the upward propagation of waves into the stratosphere is reduced along the polar waveguide. This results in a weakened subtropical jet around 40°N due to the convergence of the Eliassen–Palm flux. The East Asian jet stream is then weakened, leading to the weakening of the EAWM since 1988. In addition, the amplitude of quasi-stationary planetary waves is significantly weakened around 45°N, which is related to the reduced upward propagation of waves from the lower boundary after 1988. This reduced amplitude may weaken both the Siberian high and the Aleutian low, reduce the pressure gradient in between, and then weaken the EAWM. Further analyses indicate that zonal wavenumber 2 plays the dominant role in this process.

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Xu Zhang, Jian-Wen Bao, Baode Chen, and Evelyn D. Grell

Abstract

A new three-dimensional (3D) turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) subgrid mixing scheme is developed using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (WRF-ARW) to address the gray-zone problem in the parameterization of subgrid turbulent mixing. The new scheme combines the horizontal and vertical subgrid turbulent mixing into a single energetically consistent framework, in contrast to the conventionally separate treatment of the vertical and horizontal mixing. The new scheme is self-adaptive to the grid-size change between the large-eddy simulation (LES) and mesoscale limits. A series of dry convective boundary layer (CBL) idealized simulations are carried out to compare the performance of the new scheme and the conventional treatment of subgrid mixing to the WRF-ARW LES dataset. The importance of including the nonlocal component in the vertical buoyancy specification in the newly developed general TKE-based scheme is illustrated in the comparison. The improvements of the new scheme with the conventional treatment of subgrid mixing across the gray-zone model resolutions are demonstrated through the partitioning of the total vertical flux profiles. Results from real-case simulations show the feasibility of using the new scheme in the WRF Model in lieu of the conventional treatment of subgrid mixing.

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Xiuzhen Li, Wen Zhou, Deliang Chen, Chongyin Li, and Jie Song

Abstract

The water vapor transport and moisture budget over eastern China remotely forced by the cold-tongue (CT) and warm-pool (WP) El Niño show striking differences throughout their lifetime. The water vapor transport response is weak in the developing summer but strong in the remaining phases of CT El Niño, whereas the opposite occurs during WP El Niño. WP El Niño causes a moisture deficit over the Yangtze River valley (YZ) in the developing summer and over southeastern China (SE) in the developing fall, whereas CT El Niño induces a moisture surplus first over SE during the developing fall with the influential area expanding in the decaying spring and shifting northward in the decaying summer. It is the divergence of meridional water vapor transport that dominates the total water vapor divergence anomaly, with the divergence of zonal transport showing an opposite pattern with smaller magnitude.

Investigation of the vertical profile of moisture budget shows a great baroclinicity, with the strongest abnormal moisture budget occurring in different levels. The moisture transport via the southern boundary plays a crucial role in the regional moisture budget anomalies and is located near the surface over SE, in the lower troposphere over the YZ, and at the lower-middle troposphere over the eastern part of northern China. The enhanced moisture surplus near the surface forced by WP El Niño over SE in the mature winter and decaying spring is offset by a moisture deficit within the lower-middle troposphere due to a diverse response circulation at different vertical levels.

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Lin Wang, Peiqiang Xu, Wen Chen, and Yong Liu

Abstract

Based on several reanalysis and observational datasets, this study suggests that the Silk Road pattern (SRP), a major teleconnection pattern stretching across Eurasia in the boreal summer, shows clear interdecadal variations that explain approximately 50% of its total variance. The interdecadal SRP features a strong barotropic wave train along the Asian subtropical jet, resembling its interannual counterpart. Additionally, it features a second weak wave train over the northern part of Eurasia, leading to larger meridional scale than its interannual counterpart. The interdecadal SRP contributes approximately 40% of the summer surface air temperature’s variance with little uncertainty and 10%–20% of the summer precipitation’s variance with greater uncertainty over large domains of Eurasia. The interdecadal SRP shows two regime shifts in 1972 and 1997. The latter shift explains over 40% of the observed rainfall reduction over northeastern Asia and over 40% of the observed warming over eastern Europe, western Asia, and northeastern Asia, highlighting its importance to the recent decadal climate variations over Eurasia. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) does not show a significant linear relationship with the interdecadal SRP. However, the Monte Carlo bootstrapping resampling analysis suggests that the positive (negative) phases of the spring and summer AMO significantly facilitate the occurrence of negative (positive) phases of the interdecadal SRP, implying plausible prediction potentials for the interdecadal variations of the SRP. The reported results are insensitive to the long-term trends in datasets and thereby have little relevance to externally forced climate change.

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Sihua Huang, Bin Wang, Zhiping Wen, and Zesheng Chen

Abstract

Previous studies found a tight connection between the tropical easterly jet (TEJ) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Here we show that the TEJ–ISMR relationship is nonstationary and breaks down from 1994 to 2003 (epoch P2), in contrast to the significant positive correlation during epochs P1 (1979–93) and P3 (2004–16). The breakdown of the TEJ–ISMR relationship concurs with the increased rainfall variability over the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO). The enhanced TEIO rainfall anomalies excite a significant lower-level cyclonic circulation that reduces the ISMR and meanwhile strengthen the upper-level divergence and excite a pair of upper-level anticyclones to the west of the TEIO as Rossby wave responses, both accelerating the TEJ. Thus, the TEIO rainfall plays a more important role than the ISMR in TEJ variability during P2, causing the breakdown of the TEJ–ISMR relationship. In contrast, a relatively weak amplitude of the TEIO rainfall during P1 and P3 was unable to change the positive TEJ–ISMR relationship. The changes in the TEIO rainfall variability are mainly attributed to the increased SST variability over the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean, but their cause remains elusive.

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Jingliang Huangfu, Wen Chen, Ronghui Huang, and Juan Feng

Abstract

This paper investigates how La Niña Modoki modulates the impacts of the warm Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) on the boreal summer climate and the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the northwest Pacific (NWP). The results showed that the influence of the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) on TC genesis is the primary mechanism during the boreal summer, while La Niña Modoki exerts a secondary influence. However, although the summertime index of the IOBM shows a high negative correlation with the number of TCs generated over the NWP, warm IOBM events without La Niña Modoki have only limited influences on the boreal summertime circulations and TC genesis. The present study showed that when warm IOBM events and La Niña Modoki coexisted, the average location of TC genesis shifted westward, and the annual number of generated TCs substantially decreased. La Niña Modoki–related cold sea surface temperature anomalies over the central Pacific further suppressed convective activities over the eastern NWP compared with warm IOBM events without La Niña Modoki. Upper-level convergence and enlarged tropospheric vertical wind shears both contributed to the weakening of the low-level relative vorticity in the coupled cases, leading to a suppressed NWP monsoon trough. Additionally, together with the weaker moisture supply, the impacts of warm IOBM cases were significantly enhanced under the modulation of La Niña Modoki, leading to poorer TC genesis conditions over the eastern NWP. In addition, the energy conversion processes in the aforementioned modulation showed that joint cases will provide fewer initial disturbance seedlings for TC genesis. These results are useful for further understanding the role of warm IOBM cases in TC genesis over the NWP.

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Mengyan Feng, Weihua Ai, Guanyu Chen, Wen Lu, and Shuo Ma

Abstract

One-dimensional synthetic aperture microwave radiometer (1D-SAMR) can provide remote sensing images at a higher spatial resolution than those from traditional real aperture microwave radiometers. As 1D-SAMR operates at multiple incidence angles, we proposed a multiple linear regression method to retrieve sea surface temperature at an incidence angle between 0° and 65°. Assuming that a 1D-SAMR operates at various frequencies (i.e., 6.9, 10.65, 18.7, 23.8 and 36.5 GHz), a radiation transmission forward model was developed to simulate the brightness temperature measured by the 1D-SAMR. The sensitivity of the five frequencies to sea surface temperature was examined, and we evaluated the reliability of the regression method proposed in this study. Furthermore, 11 schemes with various frequency combinations were applied to retrieve sea surface temperature. The results showed that the five-frequency combination scheme performed better than the other schemes. This study also found that the accuracy of retrieved sea surface temperature is dependent on incidence angles. Finally, we suggested that the incidence angle range of the 1D-SAMR is necessary to be 30°–60° based on the relationship between the accuracy of retrieved sea surface temperature and the incidence angles.

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Wenxin Zeng, Guixing Chen, Yu Du, and Zhiping Wen

Abstract

A succession of MCSs developed during the last week of October 2016 and produced extreme heavy rainfall in central China. The event underwent an evident shift from a mei-yu-like warm scenario to an autumn cold scenario. Diurnal cycles of rainfall and low-level winds may be modulated by the shifting of large-scale atmospheric conditions. We conducted observational analyses and numerical experiments to examine how large-scale circulations influenced rainfall systems through diurnally varying processes. The results show that, in the first half (warm) period of the event, intense rainfall mostly occurred in eastern-central China with an early morning peak. It was closely related to a nocturnal southwesterly low-level jet (NLLJ) on the flank of the western Pacific subtropical high. The NLLJ formed near midnight in southern China where ageostrophic wind rotated clockwise due to Blackadar’s inertial oscillation. The NLLJ extended downstream to central China during the predawn hours due to the horizontal advection of momentum. Both the formation and extension of the NLLJ were supported by an enhanced subtropical high that provided relatively warm conditions with surface heating for boundary layer inertial oscillation and strong background southwesterly winds for momentum transport. The NLLJ induced MCSs at its northern terminus where the low-level ascent, moisture flux convergence, and convective instability were enhanced during the predawn hours. In the second half period with an intrusion of cold air, the diurnal amplitude of low-level winds became small under relatively cold and cloudy conditions. Moderate rainfall tended to occur in western-central China with a peak after midnight, most likely due to frontogenetic processes, upslope lifting, and nighttime cloud-top cooling.

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