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R. D. Koster, S. P. P. Mahanama, T. J. Yamada, Gianpaolo Balsamo, A. A. Berg, M. Boisserie, P. A. Dirmeyer, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, G. Drewitt, C. T. Gordon, Z. Guo, J.-H. Jeong, W.-S. Lee, Z. Li, L. Luo, S. Malyshev, W. J. Merryfield, S. I. Seneviratne, T. Stanelle, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk, F. Vitart, and E. F. Wood

Abstract

The second phase of the Global Land–Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) is a multi-institutional numerical modeling experiment focused on quantifying, for boreal summer, the subseasonal (out to two months) forecast skill for precipitation and air temperature that can be derived from the realistic initialization of land surface states, notably soil moisture. An overview of the experiment and model behavior at the global scale is described here, along with a determination and characterization of multimodel “consensus” skill. The models show modest but significant skill in predicting air temperatures, especially where the rain gauge network is dense. Given that precipitation is the chief driver of soil moisture, and thereby assuming that rain gauge density is a reasonable proxy for the adequacy of the observational network contributing to soil moisture initialization, this result indeed highlights the potential contribution of enhanced observations to prediction. Land-derived precipitation forecast skill is much weaker than that for air temperature. The skill for predicting air temperature, and to some extent precipitation, increases with the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly. GLACE-2 results are examined further to provide insight into the asymmetric impacts of wet and dry soil moisture initialization on skill.

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Paquita Zuidema, Ping Chang, Brian Medeiros, Ben P. Kirtman, Roberto Mechoso, Edwin K. Schneider, Thomas Toniazzo, Ingo Richter, R. Justin Small, Katinka Bellomo, Peter Brandt, Simon de Szoeke, J. Thomas Farrar, Eunsil Jung, Seiji Kato, Mingkui Li, Christina Patricola, Zaiyu Wang, Robert Wood, and Zhao Xu

Abstract

Well-known problems trouble coupled general circulation models of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Model climates are significantly more symmetric about the equator than is observed. Model sea surface temperatures are biased warm south and southeast of the equator, and the atmosphere is too rainy within a band south of the equator. Near-coastal eastern equatorial SSTs are too warm, producing a zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic opposite in sign to that observed. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Eastern Tropical Ocean Synthesis Working Group (WG) has pursued an updated assessment of coupled model SST biases, focusing on the surface energy balance components, on regional error sources from clouds, deep convection, winds, and ocean eddies; on the sensitivity to model resolution; and on remote impacts. Motivated by the assessment, the WG makes the following recommendations: 1) encourage identification of the specific parameterizations contributing to the biases in individual models, as these can be model dependent; 2) restrict multimodel intercomparisons to specific processes; 3) encourage development of high-resolution coupled models with a concurrent emphasis on parameterization development of finer-scale ocean and atmosphere features, including low clouds; 4) encourage further availability of all surface flux components from buoys, for longer continuous time periods, in persistently cloudy regions; and 5) focus on the eastern basin coastal oceanic upwelling regions, where further opportunities for observational–modeling synergism exist.

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Markus Gross, Hui Wan, Philip J. Rasch, Peter M. Caldwell, David L. Williamson, Daniel Klocke, Christiane Jablonowski, Diana R. Thatcher, Nigel Wood, Mike Cullen, Bob Beare, Martin Willett, Florian Lemarié, Eric Blayo, Sylvie Malardel, Piet Termonia, Almut Gassmann, Peter H. Lauritzen, Hans Johansen, Colin M. Zarzycki, Koichi Sakaguchi, and Ruby Leung

Abstract

Numerical weather, climate, or Earth system models involve the coupling of components. At a broad level, these components can be classified as the resolved fluid dynamics, unresolved fluid dynamical aspects (i.e., those represented by physical parameterizations such as subgrid-scale mixing), and nonfluid dynamical aspects such as radiation and microphysical processes. Typically, each component is developed, at least initially, independently. Once development is mature, the components are coupled to deliver a model of the required complexity. The implementation of the coupling can have a significant impact on the model. As the error associated with each component decreases, the errors introduced by the coupling will eventually dominate. Hence, any improvement in one of the components is unlikely to improve the performance of the overall system. The challenges associated with combining the components to create a coherent model are here termed physics–dynamics coupling. The issue goes beyond the coupling between the parameterizations and the resolved fluid dynamics. This paper highlights recent progress and some of the current challenges. It focuses on three objectives: to illustrate the phenomenology of the coupling problem with references to examples in the literature, to show how the problem can be analyzed, and to create awareness of the issue across the disciplines and specializations. The topics addressed are different ways of advancing full models in time, approaches to understanding the role of the coupling and evaluation of approaches, coupling ocean and atmosphere models, thermodynamic compatibility between model components, and emerging issues such as those that arise as model resolutions increase and/or models use variable resolutions.

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H. Lievens, A. Al Bitar, N. E. C. Verhoest, F. Cabot, G. J. M. De Lannoy, M. Drusch, G. Dumedah, H.-J. Hendricks Franssen, Y. Kerr, S. K. Tomer, B. Martens, O. Merlin, M. Pan, M. J. van den Berg, H. Vereecken, J. P. Walker, E. F. Wood, and V. R. N. Pauwels

Abstract

The Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite mission routinely provides global multiangular observations of brightness temperature TB at both horizontal and vertical polarization with a 3-day repeat period. The assimilation of such data into a land surface model (LSM) may improve the skill of operational flood forecasts through an improved estimation of soil moisture SM. To accommodate for the direct assimilation of the SMOS TB data, the LSM needs to be coupled with a radiative transfer model (RTM), serving as a forward operator for the simulation of multiangular and multipolarization top of the atmosphere TBs. This study investigates the use of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model coupled with the Community Microwave Emission Modelling Platform for simulating SMOS TB observations over the upper Mississippi basin, United States. For a period of 2 years (2010–11), a comparison between SMOS TBs and simulations with literature-based RTM parameters reveals a basin-averaged bias of 30 K. Therefore, time series of SMOS TB observations are used to investigate ways for mitigating these large biases. Specifically, the study demonstrates the impact of the LSM soil moisture climatology in the magnitude of TB biases. After cumulative distribution function matching the SM climatology of the LSM to SMOS retrievals, the average bias decreases from 30 K to less than 5 K. Further improvements can be made through calibration of RTM parameters related to the modeling of surface roughness and vegetation. Consequently, it can be concluded that SM rescaling and RTM optimization are efficient means for mitigating biases and form a necessary preparatory step for data assimilation.

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Dara Entekhabi, Ghassem R. Asrar, Alan K. Betts, Keith J. Beven, Rafael L. Bras, Christopher J. Duffy, Thomas Dunne, Randal D. Koster, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Dennis B. McLaughlin, William J. Shuttleworth, Martinus T. van Genuchten, Ming-Ying Wei, and Eric F. Wood

Hydrologic research at the interface between the atmosphere and land surface is undergoing a dramatic change in focus, driven by new societal priorities, emerging technologies, and better understanding of the earth system. In this paper an agenda for land surface hydrology research is proposed in order to open the debate for more comprehensive prioritization of science and application activities in the hydrologic sciences. Sets of priority science questions are posed and research strategies for achieving progress are identified. The proposed research agenda is also coupled with ongoing international data collection programs. The driving science questions and related research agenda lead to a call for the second International Hydrologic Decade. This activity will help to ensure that hydrology starts the new millennium as a coherent and vital discipline.

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Andrew M. Vogelmann, Greg M. McFarquhar, John A. Ogren, David D. Turner, Jennifer M. Comstock, Graham Feingold, Charles N. Long, Haflidi H. Jonsson, Anthony Bucholtz, Don R. Collins, Glenn S. Diskin, Hermann Gerber, R. Paul Lawson, Roy K. Woods, Elisabeth Andrews, Hee-Jung Yang, J. Christine Chiu, Daniel Hartsock, John M. Hubbe, Chaomei Lo, Alexander Marshak, Justin W. Monroe, Sally A. McFarlane, Beat Schmid, Jason M. Tomlinson, and Tami Toto

A first-of-a-kind, extended-term cloud aircraft campaign was conducted to obtain an in situ statistical characterization of continental boundary layer clouds needed to investigate cloud processes and refine retrieval algorithms. Coordinated by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), the Routine AAF Clouds with Low Optical Water Depths (CLOWD) Optical Radiative Observations (RACORO) field campaign operated over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 22 January to 30 June 2009, collecting 260 h of data during 59 research flights. A comprehensive payload aboard the Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft measured cloud microphysics, solar and thermal radiation, physical aerosol properties, and atmospheric state parameters. Proximity to the SGP's extensive complement of surface measurements provides ancillary data that support modeling studies and facilitates evaluation of a variety of surface retrieval algorithms. The five-month duration enabled sampling a range of conditions associated with the seasonal transition from winter to summer. Although about twothirds of the flights during which clouds were sampled occurred in May and June, boundary layer cloud fields were sampled under a variety of environmental and aerosol conditions, with about 77% of the cloud flights occurring in cumulus and stratocumulus. Preliminary analyses illustrate use of these data to analyze aerosol– cloud relationships, characterize the horizontal variability of cloud radiative impacts, and evaluate surface-based retrievals. We discuss how an extended-term campaign requires a simplified operating paradigm that is different from that used for typical, short-term, intensive aircraft field programs.

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P. W. Thorne, R. J. Allan, L. Ashcroft, P. Brohan, R. J. H Dunn, M. J. Menne, P. R. Pearce, J. Picas, K. M. Willett, M. Benoy, S. Bronnimann, P. O. Canziani, J. Coll, R. Crouthamel, G. P. Compo, D. Cuppett, M. Curley, C. Duffy, I. Gillespie, J. Guijarro, S. Jourdain, E. C. Kent, H. Kubota, T. P. Legg, Q. Li, J. Matsumoto, C. Murphy, N. A. Rayner, J. J. Rennie, E. Rustemeier, L. C. Slivinski, V. Slonosky, A. Squintu, B. Tinz, M. A. Valente, S. Walsh, X. L. Wang, N. Westcott, K. Wood, S. D. Woodruff, and S. J. Worley

Abstract

Observations are the foundation for understanding the climate system. Yet, currently available land meteorological data are highly fractured into various global, regional, and national holdings for different variables and time scales, from a variety of sources, and in a mixture of formats. Added to this, many data are still inaccessible for analysis and usage. To meet modern scientific and societal demands as well as emerging needs such as the provision of climate services, it is essential that we improve the management and curation of available land-based meteorological holdings. We need a comprehensive global set of data holdings, of known provenance, that is truly integrated both across essential climate variables (ECVs) and across time scales to meet the broad range of stakeholder needs. These holdings must be easily discoverable, made available in accessible formats, and backed up by multitiered user support. The present paper provides a high-level overview, based upon broad community input, of the steps that are required to bring about this integration. The significant challenge is to find a sustained means to realize this vision. This requires a long-term international program. The database that results will transform our collective ability to provide societally relevant research, analysis, and predictions in many weather- and climate-related application areas across much of the globe.

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Qing Wang, Denny P. Alappattu, Stephanie Billingsley, Byron Blomquist, Robert J. Burkholder, Adam J. Christman, Edward D. Creegan, Tony de Paolo, Daniel P. Eleuterio, Harindra Joseph S. Fernando, Kyle B. Franklin, Andrey A. Grachev, Tracy Haack, Thomas R. Hanley, Christopher M. Hocut, Teddy R. Holt, Kate Horgan, Haflidi H. Jonsson, Robert A. Hale, John A. Kalogiros, Djamal Khelif, Laura S. Leo, Richard J. Lind, Iossif Lozovatsky, Jesus Planella-Morato, Swagato Mukherjee, Wendell A. Nuss, Jonathan Pozderac, L. Ted Rogers, Ivan Savelyev, Dana K. Savidge, R. Kipp Shearman, Lian Shen, Eric Terrill, A. Marcela Ulate, Qi Wang, R. Travis Wendt, Russell Wiss, Roy K. Woods, Luyao Xu, Ryan T. Yamaguchi, and Caglar Yardim

Abstract

The Coupled Air–Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research (CASPER) project aims to better quantify atmospheric effects on the propagation of radar and communication signals in the marine environment. Such effects are associated with vertical gradients of temperature and water vapor in the marine atmospheric surface layer (MASL) and in the capping inversion of the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), as well as the horizontal variations of these vertical gradients. CASPER field measurements emphasized simultaneous characterization of electromagnetic (EM) wave propagation, the propagation environment, and the physical processes that gave rise to the measured refractivity conditions. CASPER modeling efforts utilized state-of-the-art large-eddy simulations (LESs) with a dynamically coupled MASL and phase-resolved ocean surface waves. CASPER-East was the first of two planned field campaigns, conducted in October and November 2015 offshore of Duck, North Carolina. This article highlights the scientific motivations and objectives of CASPER and provides an overview of the CASPER-East field campaign. The CASPER-East sampling strategy enabled us to obtain EM wave propagation loss as well as concurrent environmental refractive conditions along the propagation path. This article highlights the initial results from this sampling strategy showing the range-dependent propagation loss, the atmospheric and upper-oceanic variability along the propagation range, and the MASL thermodynamic profiles measured during CASPER-East.

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T. H. Chen, A. Henderson-Sellers, P. C. D. Milly, A. J. Pitman, A. C. M. Beljaars, J. Polcher, F. Abramopoulos, A. Boone, S. Chang, F. Chen, Y. Dai, C. E. Desborough, R. E. Dickinson, L. Dümenil, M. Ek, J. R. Garratt, N. Gedney, Y. M. Gusev, J. Kim, R. Koster, E. A. Kowalczyk, K. Laval, J. Lean, D. Lettenmaier, X. Liang, J.-F. Mahfouf, H.-T. Mengelkamp, K. Mitchell, O. N. Nasonova, J. Noilhan, A. Robock, C. Rosenzweig, J. Schaake, C. A. Schlosser, J.-P. Schulz, Y. Shao, A. B. Shmakin, D. L. Verseghy, P. Wetzel, E. F. Wood, Y. Xue, Z.-L. Yang, and Q. Zeng

Abstract

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W m−2 in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (±10 W m−2). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models’ neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of30 W m−2 and 25 W m−2, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W m−2 for sensible heat flux and 10 W m−2 for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to groundwater, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

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Eric J. Jensen, Leonhard Pfister, David E. Jordan, Thaopaul V. Bui, Rei Ueyama, Hanwant B. Singh, Troy D. Thornberry, Andrew W. Rollins, Ru-Shan Gao, David W. Fahey, Karen H. Rosenlof, James W. Elkins, Glenn S. Diskin, Joshua P. DiGangi, R. Paul Lawson, Sarah Woods, Elliot L. Atlas, Maria A. Navarro Rodriguez, Steven C. Wofsy, Jasna Pittman, Charles G. Bardeen, Owen B. Toon, Bruce C. Kindel, Paul A. Newman, Matthew J. McGill, Dennis L. Hlavka, Leslie R. Lait, Mark R. Schoeberl, John W. Bergman, Henry B. Selkirk, M. Joan Alexander, Ji-Eun Kim, Boon H. Lim, Jochen Stutz, and Klaus Pfeilsticker

Abstract

The February–March 2014 deployment of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Airborne Tropical Tropopause Experiment (ATTREX) provided unique in situ measurements in the western Pacific tropical tropopause layer (TTL). Six flights were conducted from Guam with the long-range, high-altitude, unmanned Global Hawk aircraft. The ATTREX Global Hawk payload provided measurements of water vapor, meteorological conditions, cloud properties, tracer and chemical radical concentrations, and radiative fluxes. The campaign was partially coincident with the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) and the Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST) airborne campaigns based in Guam using lower-altitude aircraft (see companion articles in this issue). The ATTREX dataset is being used for investigations of TTL cloud, transport, dynamical, and chemical processes, as well as for evaluation and improvement of global-model representations of TTL processes. The ATTREX data are publicly available online (at https://espoarchive.nasa.gov/).

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