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Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Wen Chen, Debashis Nath, Gang Huang, and Weichen Tao

Abstract

The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the East Asian–western Pacific (EAWP) climate in boreal winter is investigated in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model results and then compared to that in the phase 3 (CMIP3) results. In particular, the role played by the differences among models in ENSO properties, including the amplitude and longitudinal extension of ENSO’s sea surface temperature (SST) pattern, is analyzed. Results show that an eastward shrinking of ENSO’s SST pattern leads to quite weak circulation and climatic responses over the EAWP regions in the models. On the contrary, a westward expansion of the SST pattern shifts the anomalous Walker circulation too far west. The resultant precipitation anomalies and lower-tropospheric atmospheric Rossby wave responses both extend unrealistically into the Indian Ocean, and the hemispheric asymmetry of the Rossby wave response is missing. All these features lead to unrealistic climatic impacts of ENSO over the EAWP regions. In contrast to the above two cases, a reasonable longitudinal extension of ENSO’s SST pattern corresponds to better ENSO teleconnections over the EAWP regions. Nevertheless, the atmospheric responses over the western Pacific are still located farther west than observed, implying a common bias of CMIP5 models. In this case, a larger amplitude of ENSO variability to some extent helps to reduce model biases and facilitate better climatic responses to ENSO in the EAWP regions. Compared with CMIP3 models, CMIP5 models perform better in representing ENSO’s impacts on the East Asian winter climate.

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Ying-Wen Chen, Tatsuya Seiki, Chihiro Kodama, Masaki Satoh, Akira T. Noda, and Yohei Yamada

Abstract

This study examines cloud responses to global warming using a global nonhydrostatic model with two different cloud microphysics schemes. The cloud microphysics schemes tested here are the single- and double-moment schemes with six water categories: these schemes are referred to as NSW6 and NDW6, respectively. Simulations of one year for NSW6 and one boreal summer for NDW6 are performed using the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model with a mesh size of approximately 14 km. NSW6 and NDW6 exhibit similar changes in the visible cloud fraction under conditions of global warming. The longwave (LW) cloud radiative feedbacks in NSW6 and NDW6 are within the upper half of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)–Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CFMIP2) range. The LW cloud radiative feedbacks are mainly attributed to cirrus clouds, which prevail more in the tropics under global warming conditions. For NDW6, the LW cloud radiative feedbacks from cirrus clouds also extend to midlatitudes. The changes in cirrus clouds and their effects on LW cloud radiative forcing (LWCRF) are assessed based on changes in the effective radii of ice hydrometeors () and the cloud fraction. It was determined that an increase in has a nonnegligible impact on LWCRF compared with an increase in cloud fraction.

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Junpeng Wen, Ji Chen, Wenshi Lin, Baolin Jiang, Suishan Xu, and Jing Lan

Abstract

This study investigated heavy frontal rainfall that occurred on 13–14 October 2011 over the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China. The frontal rainstorm was simulated using the WRF-ARW Model (version 3.3), which included its urban canopy model. Although the model-simulated convection occurred 2 h early and the second precipitation peak was underestimated, the model represented the formation, development, and extinction of the frontal rainfall and captured the distribution of the peak value. In addition, the averaged value of 49.7 W m−2 was taken as the anthropogenic heat flux (AHF) of the PRD, and two land-use datasets were adopted: one for 1992 and the other for 2011. The simulation revealed that AHF and urban land-use change (ULUC) increased the total rainfall over the PRD by 6.3% and 7.4% and increased the maximum hourly rainfall intensity by 24.6% and 21.2%, respectively. Furthermore, to elucidate the mechanism of AHF and ULUC influence, the rainstorm structure, low-level jet (LLJ), and CAPE of the rainfall event were analyzed. It was found that AHF and ULUC enhanced two strong southward LLJs located over the urban areas, which carried abundant water vapor to the PRD and generated additional upper-level CAPE. This not only sustained steady ascent of the air, but it also created conditions favorable for downward motion, resulting in large persistent convective clouds and heavy frontal rainfall.

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Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Ke Wei, and Xuefeng Cui

Abstract

In this paper the model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The multimodel ensemble (MME) is able to reproduce reasonably well the circulation features of the EAWM. The simulated surface air temperature still suffers from a cold bias over East Asia, but this bias is reduced compared with CMIP phase 3 models. The intermodel spread is relatively small for the large-scale circulations, but is large for the lower-tropospheric meridional wind and precipitation along the East Asian coast. The interannual variability of the EAWM-related circulations can be captured by most of the models. A general bias is that the simulated variability is slightly weaker than in the observations. Based on a selected dynamic EAWM index, the patterns of the EAWM-related anomalies are well reproduced in MME although the simulated anomalies are slightly weaker than the observations. One general bias is that the northeasterly anomalies over East Asia cannot be captured to the south of 30°N. This bias may arise both from the inadequacies of the EAWM index and from the ability of models to capture the EAWM-related tropical–extratropical interactions. The ENSO–EAWM relationship is then evaluated and about half of the models can successfully capture the observed ENSO–EAWM relationship, including the significant negative correlation between Niño-3.4 and EAWM indices and the anomalous anticyclone (or cyclone) over the northwestern Pacific. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both ENSO’s spatial structure and its strength of interannual variability.

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Hainan Gong, Lin Wang, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Gang Huang, and Debashis Nath

Abstract

This study investigates the reproducibility of the spatial structure and amplitude of the observed Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. In particular, the role of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and atmospheric mean flow in the diverse reproducibility of the PJ pattern among models is investigated. Based on the pattern correlation between simulated and observed PJ patterns, models are categorized into high and low correlation groups, referred to as HCG and LCG, respectively. The observed cold SSTAs in the western North Pacific (WNP) and equatorial central Pacific, organized convection and precipitation anomalies, and Rossby wave response are reproduced well in HCG models, whereas these features are not present in LCG models. The summer SSTAs are closely tied to the preceding El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its temporal evolution in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in both observations and models, but the SSTAs in the Indian Ocean are weak in both HCG and LCG, implying a weak Indian Ocean capacitor effect. As a result, the reproducibility of the amplitude of the WNP center of the PJ pattern is mainly modulated by the SSTAs and local air–sea feedback over the WNP in the models. On the other hand, a model with stronger climatological southerly along the coast of East Asia tends to produce more realistic amplitude of the midlatitude center of the PJ pattern with clearer poleward wave-activity fluxes due to more efficient local barotropic energy conversion from the mean flow.

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Tianjiao Ma, Wen Chen, Hans-F. Graf, Shuoyi Ding, Peiqiang Xu, Lei Song, and Xiaoqing Lan

Abstract

The present study investigates different impacts of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on surface air temperature (Ts) in North America (NA) during ENSO and neutral ENSO episodes. In neutral ENSO years, the EAWM shows a direct impact on the Ts anomalies in NA on an interannual time scale. Two Rossby wave packets appear over the Eurasian–western Pacific (upstream) and North Pacific–NA (downstream) regions associated with a strong EAWM. Further analysis suggests that the downstream wave packet is caused by reflection of the upstream wave packet over the subtropical western Pacific and amplified over the North Pacific. Also, the East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream (EAJS) is intensified in the central and downstream region over the central North Pacific. Hence, increased barotropic kinetic energy conversion and the interaction between transient eddies and the EAJS tend to maintain the circulation anomaly over the North Pacific. Therefore, a strong EAWM tends to result in warm Ts anomalies in northwestern NA via the downstream wave packet emanating from the central North Pacific toward NA. A weak EAWM tends to induce cold Ts anomalies in western-central NA with a smaller magnitude. However, in ENSO years, an anomalous EAJS is mainly confined over East Asia and does not extend into the central North Pacific. The results confirm that the EAWM has an indirect impact on the Ts anomalies in NA via a modulation of the tropical convection anomalies associated with ENSO. Our results indicate that, for seasonal prediction of Ts anomalies in NA, the influence of the EAWM should be taken into account. It produces different responses in neutral ENSO and in ENSO years.

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A. Kumar, M. Chen, L. Zhang, W. Wang, Y. Xue, C. Wen, L. Marx, and B. Huang

Abstract

For long-range predictions (e.g., seasonal), it is a common practice for retrospective forecasts (also referred to as the hindcasts) to accompany real-time predictions. The necessity for the hindcasts stems from the fact that real-time predictions need to be calibrated in an attempt to remove the influence of model biases on the predicted anomalies. A fundamental assumption behind forecast calibration is the long-term stationarity of forecast bias that is derived based on hindcasts.

Hindcasts require specification of initial conditions for various components of the prediction system (e.g., ocean, atmosphere) that are generally taken from a long reanalysis. Trends and discontinuities in the reanalysis that are either real or spurious can arise due to several reasons, for example, the changing observing system. If changes in initial conditions were to persist during the forecast, there is a potential for forecast bias to depend over the period it is computed, making calibration even more of a challenging task. In this study such a case is discussed for the recently implemented seasonal prediction system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2).

Based on the analysis of the CFS.v2 for 1981–2009, it is demonstrated that the characteristics of the forecast bias for sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific had a dramatic change around 1999. Furthermore, change in the SST forecast bias, and its relationship to changes in the ocean reanalysis from which the ocean initial conditions for hindcasts are taken is described. Implications for seasonal and other long-range predictions are discussed.

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Lingzhi Zhong, Rongfang Yang, Lin Chen, Yixin Wen, Ruiyi Li, Guoqiang Tang, and Yang Hong

Abstract

This study presents a statistical analysis of the variability of the vertical structure of precipitation in the eastern downstream region of the Tibetan Plateau as measured by the Precipitation Radar (PR) on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Data were analyzed over an 11-yr time span (January 2004–December 2014). The results show the seasonal and spatial variability of the storm height, freezing level, and bright band for different types of precipitation as well as the characteristics of intensity-related and type-related vertical profiles of reflectivity (VPR). Major findings were as follows: About 90% of the brightband peak reflectivity of stratiform precipitation was less than 32 dBZ, and 40% of the maximum reflectivity of convective precipitation exceeded 35 dBZ. The intensity of surface rainfall rates also depended on the shapes of VPRs. For stratiform precipitation, ice–snow aggregation was faster during moderate and heavy rainfall than it was in light rainfall. Since both the moisture and temperature are lower in winter, the transformation efficiency of hydrometeors becomes slower. Typical Ku-band representative climatological VPRs (CPRs) for stratiform precipitation have been created on the basis of the integration of normalized VPR shape for the given area and the rainfall intensity. All of the findings indicate that the developed CPRs can be used to improve surface precipitation estimates in regions with complex terrain where the ground-based radar net has limited visibility at low levels.

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Xiaomin Chen, Kun Zhao, Wen-Chau Lee, Ben Jong-Dao Jou, Ming Xue, and Paul R. Harasti

Abstract

The ground-based velocity track display (GBVTD) was developed to deduce a three-dimensional primary circulation of landfalling tropical cyclones from single-Doppler radar data. However, the cross-beam component of the mean wind cannot be resolved and is consequently aliased into the retrieved axisymmetric tangential wind . Recently, the development of the hurricane volume velocity processing method (HVVP) enabled the independent estimation of ; however, HVVP is potentially limited by the unknown accuracy of empirical assumptions used to deduce the modified Rankine-combined vortex exponent . By combing the GBVTD with HVVP techniques, this study proposes a modified GBVTD method (MGBVTD) to objectively deduce from the GBVTD technique and provide a more accurate estimation of and via an iterative procedure to reach converged and cross-beam component of solutions. MGBVTD retains the strength of both algorithms but avoids their weaknesses. The results from idealized experiments demonstrate that the MGBVTD-retrieved cross-beam component of is within 2 m s−1 of reality. MGBVTD was applied to Hurricane Bret (1999) whose inner core was captured simultaneously by two Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) instruments. The MGBVTD-retrieved cross-beam component of from single-Doppler radar data is very close to that from dual-Doppler radar synthesis using extended GBVTD (EGBVTD); their difference is less than 2 m s−1. The mean difference in the MGBVTD-retrieved from the two radars is ~2 m s−1, which is significantly smaller than that resolved in GBVTD retrievals (~5 m s−1).

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Lin Liu, Jianping Guo, Wen Chen, Renguang Wu, Lin Wang, Hainan Gong, Weitao Xue, and Jian Li

Abstract

The present study applies the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method to investigate the large-scale pattern and the plausible dynamic processes of the boreal winter diurnal temperature range (DTR) changes in the East Asia (EA)–Australia (AUS) region based on the CRU Time Series version 4.00 (TS4.00) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis datasets. Results show that the DTR changes during 1948–2015 are dominated by two distinct modes. The first mode, characterized by a same-sign variation over most regions of EA–AUS, represents a declining trend of DTR. The second mode, featuring an opposite-sign variation, represents the interannual variations in DTR. The two modes are both closely associated with the changes in cloud cover (CLT) caused by atmospheric circulation anomalies in EA–AUS. For the trend mode, anomalous southerly and northerly winds over EA and AUS, respectively, bring warm and wet air from low latitudes to EA–AUS, inducing an increase in CLT and thereby reducing DTR in most areas of EA–AUS. The changes of circulation are mainly due to the thermodynamic responses of atmosphere to the nonuniform warming in EA–AUS. In addition, the second mode of DTR is largely forced by the ENSO variability. The weakened Walker circulation associated with warm ENSO events triggers a pair of anomalous low-level anticyclones (south and north of the equator) over the western Pacific. The AUS region is under control of the southern anticyclone, thereby reducing the CLT and increasing the DTR in AUS as a result of anomalous descending motion. In contrast, the EA region is controlled by anomalous southerlies to the west of the northern anticyclone. The northward transports of moistures from the warm ocean increase the CLT, reducing DTR in EA.

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