Search Results

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 19 items for :

  • Author or Editor: Darryn W. Waugh x
  • Journal of Climate x
  • All content x
Clear All Modify Search
Andrea Molod, Haydee Salmun, and Darryn W. Waugh

Abstract

Heterogeneities in the land surface on scales smaller than the typical general circulation model (GCM) grid size can have a profound influence on the grid-scale mean climate. There exists observational and modeling evidence that the direct effects of surface heterogeneities may be felt by the atmosphere well into the planetary boundary layer. The impact of including an “extended mosaic” (EM) scheme, which accounts for the vertical influence of land surface heterogeneities in a GCM, is evaluated here by comparing side-by-side GCM simulations with EM and with the more standard mosaic formulation (M).

Differences between the EM and M simulations are observed in the boundary layer structure, in fields that link the boundary layer and the general circulation, and in fields that represent the general circulation itself. Large EM − M differences are found over the eastern United States, eastern Asia, and southern Africa in the summertime, and are associated with a boundary layer eddy diffusion feedback mechanism. The feedback mechanism operates as a positive or negative feedback depending on the local Bowen ratio. Significant EM − M differences are also found in the region of the Australian monsoon and in the strength of the stationary Pacific–North America pattern in the northern Pacific.

Full access
Lorenzo M. Polvani and Darryn W. Waugh

Abstract

It has recently been shown that extreme stratospheric events (ESEs) are followed by surface weather anomalies (for up to 60 days), suggesting that stratospheric variability might be used to extend weather prediction beyond current time scales. In this paper, attention is drawn away from the stratosphere to demonstrate that the originating point of ESEs is located in the troposphere. First, it is shown that anomalously strong eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa nearly always precede weak vortex events, and conversely, anomalously weak eddy heat fluxes precede strong vortex events, consistent with wave–mean flow interaction theory. This finding clarifies the dynamical nature of ESEs and suggests that a major source of stratospheric variability (and thus predictability) is located in the troposphere below and not in the stratosphere itself. Second, it is shown that the daily time series of eddy heat flux found at 100 hPa and integrated over the prior 40 days, exhibit a remarkably high anticorrelation (−0.8) with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index at 10 hPa. Following Baldwin and Dunkerton, it is then demonstrated that events with anomalously strong (weak) integrated eddy heat fluxes at 100 hPa are followed by anomalously large (small) surface values of the AO index up to 60 days following each event. This suggests that the stratosphere is unlikely to be the dominant source of the anomalous surface weather regimes discussed in Thompson et al.

Full access
Chaim I. Garfinkel and Darryn W. Waugh
Full access
Chaim I. Garfinkel and Darryn W. Waugh

Abstract

A dry general circulation model is used to investigate the connections between Rossby wave breaking and the latitude of the midlatitude tropospheric eddy-driven jet. An ensemble of experiments is constructed in which the jet latitude is influenced by a midlatitude tropospheric temperature anomaly that resembles observed climate change and by the imposition of a stratospheric polar vortex, and the distribution of Rossby wave breaking frequency is examined for each experiment. The shift in wave breaking per degree latitude of jet shift is then compared for three different sources of jet movement: the tropospheric baroclinic forcing imposed in midlatitudes, the imposition of a stratospheric polar vortex, and the internal variability of the midlatitude eddy-driven jet. It is demonstrated that all three sources of jet movement produce a similar change in Rossby wave breaking frequency per degree of jet shift. Hence, it is difficult (if not impossible) to isolate the ultimate cause behind the shift in Rossby wave breaking in response to the two external forcings.

Full access
William J. M. Seviour, Anand Gnanadesikan, and Darryn W. Waugh

Abstract

Recent studies have suggested that the response of the Southern Ocean to stratospheric ozone depletion is nonmonotonic in time; consisting of an initial cooling followed by a long-term warming. This result may be significant for the attribution of observed Southern Ocean temperature and sea ice trends, but the time scale and magnitude of the response is poorly constrained, with a wide spread among climate models. Furthermore, a long-lived initial cooling period has only been observed in a model with idealized geometry and lacking an explicit representation of ozone. Here the authors calculate the transient response of the Southern Ocean to a step-change in ozone in a comprehensive coupled climate model, GFDL-ESM2Mc. The Southern Ocean responds to ozone depletion with an initial cooling, lasting 25 yr, followed by a warming. The authors extend previous studies to investigate the dependence of the response on the ozone forcing as well as the regional pattern of this response. The response of the Southern Ocean relative to natural variability is shown to be largely independent of the initial state. However, the magnitude of this response is much less than that of natural variability found in the model, which limits its influence and detectability.

Full access
Chaim I. Garfinkel, Darryn W. Waugh, and Edwin P. Gerber

Abstract

A dry general circulation model is used to investigate how coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the extratropical tropospheric circulation depends on the latitude of the tropospheric jet. The tropospheric response to an identical stratospheric vortex configuration is shown to be strongest for a jet centered near 40° and weaker for jets near either 30° or 50° by more than a factor of 3. Stratosphere-focused mechanisms based on stratospheric potential vorticity inversion, eddy phase speed, and planetary wave reflection, as well as arguments based on tropospheric eddy heat flux and zonal length scale, appear to be incapable of explaining the differences in the magnitude of the jet shift. In contrast, arguments based purely on tropospheric variability involving the strength of eddy–zonal mean flow feedbacks and jet persistence, and related changes in the synoptic eddy momentum flux, appear to explain this effect. The dependence of coupling between the stratospheric polar vortex and the troposphere on tropospheric jet latitude found here is consistent with 1) the observed variability in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific and 2) the trend in the Southern Hemisphere as projected by comprehensive models.

Full access
Lorenzo M. Polvani, Lei Wang, Valentina Aquila, and Darryn W. Waugh

Abstract

The impact of ozone-depleting substances on global lower-stratospheric temperature trends is widely recognized. In the tropics, however, understanding lower-stratospheric temperature trends has proven more challenging. While the tropical lower-stratospheric cooling observed from 1979 to 1997 has been linked to tropical ozone decreases, those ozone trends cannot be of chemical origin, as active chlorine is not abundant in the tropical lower stratosphere. The 1979–97 tropical ozone trends are believed to originate from enhanced upwelling, which, it is often stated, would be driven by increasing concentrations of well-mixed greenhouse gases. This study, using simple arguments based on observational evidence after 1997, combined with model integrations with incrementally added single forcings, argues that trends in ozone-depleting substances, not well-mixed greenhouse gases, have been the primary driver of temperature and ozone trends in the tropical lower stratosphere until 1997, and this has occurred because ozone-depleting substances are key drivers of tropical upwelling and, more generally, of the entire Brewer–Dobson circulation.

Full access
Darryn W. Waugh, Chaim I. Garfinkel, and Lorenzo M. Polvani

Abstract

Observational evidence indicates that the southern edge of the Hadley cell (HC) has shifted southward during austral summer in recent decades. However, there is no consensus on the cause of this shift, with several studies reaching opposite conclusions as to the relative role of changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and stratospheric ozone depletion in causing this shift. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of the extant literature on this subject and quantitatively compare the results of all published studies that have used single-forcing model integrations to isolate the role of different factors on the HC expansion during austral summer. It is shown that the weight of the evidence clearly points to stratospheric ozone depletion as the dominant driver of the tropical summertime expansion over the period in which an ozone hole was formed (1979 to late 1990s), although SST trends have contributed to trends since then. Studies that have claimed SSTs as the major driver of tropical expansion since 1979 have used prescribed ozone fields that underrepresent the observed Antarctic ozone depletion.

Full access
Ju-Mee Ryoo, Takeru Igusa, and Darryn W. Waugh

Abstract

The spatial variations in the probability density functions (PDFs) of relative humidity (RH) in the tropical and subtropical troposphere are examined using observations from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instruments together with a simple statistical model. The model, a generalization of that proposed by Sherwood et al., assumes the RH is determined by a combination of drying by uniform subsidence and random moistening events and has two parameters: r, the ratio of the drying time by subsidence to the time between moistening events, and k, a measure of the variability of the moistening events. The observations show that the characteristics of the PDFs vary between the tropics and subtropics, within the tropics or subtropics, and with altitude. The model fits the observed PDFs well, and the model parameters concisely characterize variations in the PDFs and provide information on the processes controlling the RH distributions. In tropical convective regions, the model PDFs that match the observations have large r and small k, indicating rapid random remoistening, which is consistent with direct remoistening in convection. In contrast, in the nonconvective regions there are small r and large k, indicating slower, less random remoistening, consistent with remoistening by slower, quasi-horizontal transport. The statistical model derived will be useful for quantifying differences between, or temporal changes in, RH distributions from different datasets or models, and for examining how changes in physical processes could alter the RH distribution.

Full access
Lei Wang, Paul J. Kushner, and Darryn W. Waugh

Abstract

The Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric stationary wave amplitude increased significantly in late spring and early summer during the last two decades of the twentieth century. A suite of chemistry climate model simulations are examined to explore the underlying cause and the separate effects of anthropogenic forcing from ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the past and projected SH stationary wave evolution. The model simulations produce trends in the wave amplitude similar to that observed, although somewhat weaker. In simulations with changing ODSs, this increase in amplitude is reproduced during the ozone depletion period and is reversed during the ozone recovery period. This response is related to changes in the strength and timing of the breakdown of the SH polar vortex associated with ozone depletion and recovery. GHG increases have little impact on the simulated stratospheric stationary wave amplitude but are projected to induce an eastward phase shift of the waves. This phase shift is linked to the strengthening of the subtropical jets driven by GHG forcing via sea surface warming.

Full access