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  • Author or Editor: David M Schultz x
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David M. Schultz and Joseph M. Sienkiewicz

Abstract

Sting jets, or surface wind maxima at the end of bent-back fronts in Shapiro–Keyser cyclones, are one cause of strong winds in extratropical cyclones. Although previous studies identified the release of conditional symmetric instability as a cause of sting jets, the mechanism to initiate its release remains unidentified. To identify this mechanism, a case study was selected of an intense cyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean during 7–8 December 2005 that possessed a sting jet detected from the NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT). A couplet of Petterssen frontogenesis and frontolysis occurred along the bent-back front. The direct circulation associated with the frontogenesis led to ascent within the cyclonically turning portion of the warm conveyor belt, contributing to the comma-cloud head. When the bent-back front became frontolytic, an indirect circulation associated with the frontolysis, in conjunction with alongfront cold advection, led to descent within and on the warm side of the front, bringing higher-momentum air down toward the boundary layer. Sensible heat fluxes from the ocean surface and cold-air advection destabilized the boundary layer, resulting in near-neutral static stability facilitating downward mixing. Thus, descent associated with the frontolysis reaching a near-neutral boundary layer provides a physical mechanism for sting jets, is consistent with previous studies, and synthesizes existing knowledge. Specifically, this couplet of frontogenesis and frontolysis could explain why sting jets occur at the end of the bent-back front and emerge from the cloud head, why sting jets are mesoscale phenomena, and why they only occur within Shapiro–Keyser cyclones. A larger dataset of cases is necessary to test this hypothesis.

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David M. Schultz, Bogdan Antonescu, and Alessandro Chiariello

Abstract

According to the Norwegian cyclone model, whether a warm-type or cold-type occluded front forms depends upon which cold air mass is colder: the prewarm-frontal air mass or the postcold-frontal air mass. For example, a cold-type occlusion is said to occur when the occluded front slopes rearward with height because the prewarm-frontal air mass is warmer than the postcold-frontal air mass. This temperature difference and the resulting occluded-frontal structure in the Norwegian cyclone model is part of what is called the temperature rule. Paradoxically, no clear example of a rearward-sloping, cold-type occluded front has been found in the literature, even though the required temperature difference has been documented in several cases. This article presents the first documented, rearward-sloping, cold-type occluded front. This occluded front forms in a cyclone over the North Atlantic Ocean on 3–5 January 2003 and is documented in model output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Cross sections through the evolving cyclone show the occluded front forms as the less statically stable warm-frontal zone ascends over the more stable cold-frontal zone. Such a stability difference between the cold- and warm-frontal zones is consistent with a previously published hypothesis that the less stable air is lifted by the more stable air to form occluded fronts, in disagreement with the temperature rule. Because warm-frontal zones and the cold air underneath tend to be more stable than cold-frontal zones and the postcold-frontal air, warm-type occluded fronts are much more common than cold-type occluded fronts, explaining why well-defined, rearward-sloping, cold-type occluded fronts are not common in the meteorological literature.

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Jesse Norris, Geraint Vaughan, and David M. Schultz

Abstract

Precipitation patterns along cold fronts can exhibit a variety of morphologies including narrow cold-frontal rainbands and core-and-gap structures. A three-dimensional primitive equation model is used to investigate alongfront variability of precipitation in an idealized baroclinic wave. Along the poleward part of the cold front, a narrow line of precipitation develops. Along the equatorward part of the cold front, precipitation cores and gaps form. The difference between the two evolutions is due to differences in the orientation of vertical shear near the front in the lower troposphere: at the poleward end the along-frontal shear is dominant and the front is in near-thermal wind balance, while at the equatorward end the cross-frontal shear is almost as large. At the poleward end, the thermal structure remains erect with the front well defined up to the midtroposphere, hence updrafts remain erect and precipitation falls in a continuous line along the front. At the equatorward end, the cores form as undulations appear in both the prefrontal and postfrontal lighter precipitation, associated with vorticity maxima moving along the front on either side. Cross-frontal winds aloft tilt updrafts, so that some precipitation falls ahead of the surface cold front, forming the cores. Sensitivity simulations are also presented in which SST and roughness length are varied between simulations. Larger SST reduces cross-frontal winds aloft and leads to a more continuous rainband. Larger roughness length destroys the surface wind shift and thermal gradient, allowing mesovortices to dominate the precipitation distribution, leading to distinctive and irregularly shaped, quasi-regularly spaced precipitation maxima.

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Sam Hardy, David M. Schultz, and Geraint Vaughan

Abstract

Major river flooding affected the United Kingdom in late September 2012 as a slow-moving extratropical cyclone brought over 150 mm of rain to parts of northern England and north Wales. The cyclone deepened over the United Kingdom on 24–26 September as a potential vorticity (PV) anomaly approached from the northwest, elongated into a PV streamer, and wrapped around the cyclone. The strength and position of the PV anomaly is modified in the initial conditions of Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations, using PV surgery, to examine whether different upper-level forcing, or different phasing between the PV anomaly and cyclone, could have produced an even more extreme event. These simulations reveal that quasigeostrophic (QG) forcing for ascent ahead of the anomaly contributed to the persistence of the rainfall over the United Kingdom. Moreover, weakening the anomaly resulted in lower rainfall accumulations across the United Kingdom, suggesting that the impact of the event might be proportional to the strength of the upper-level QG forcing. However, when the anomaly was strengthened, it rotated cyclonically around a large-scale trough over Iceland rather than moving eastward as in the verifying analysis, with strongly reduced accumulated rainfall across the United Kingdom. A similar evolution developed when the anomaly was moved farther away from the cyclone. Conversely, moving the anomaly nearer to the cyclone produced a similar solution to the verifying analysis, with slightly increased rainfall totals. These counterintuitive results suggest that the verifying analysis represented almost the highest-impact scenario possible for this flooding event when accounting for sensitivity to the initial position and strength of the PV anomaly.

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Geraint Vaughan, Bogdan Antonescu, David M. Schultz, and Christopher Dearden

Abstract

Deep convection frequently occurs on the eastern side of upper-level troughs, or potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. This is consistent with uplift ahead of a cyclonic PV anomaly, and consequent reduction in static stability and increase of convective available potential energy (CAPE). Nevertheless, the causal link between upper-level PV and deep convection has not been proven, and given that lift, moisture, and instability must all be present for deep convection to occur it is not clear that upper-level forcing is sufficient. In this paper a convective rainband that intensified ahead of a cyclonic PV anomaly in an environment with little CAPE (~10 J kg−1) is examined to determine the factors responsible for its intensification. The key feature was a low-level convergence line, arising from the remnants of an occluded front embedded in the low-level cyclonic flow. The rainband’s intensity and morphology was influenced by the remnants of a tropopause fold that capped convection at midlevels in the southern part of the band, and by a reduction in upper-level static stability in the northern part of the band that allowed the convection to reach the tropopause. Ascent ahead of the trough appears to have played only a minor role in conditioning the atmosphere to convection: in most cases the ascending airstream had previously descended in the flow west of the trough axis. Thus, simple “PV thinking” is not capable of describing the development of the rainband, and it is concluded that preexisting low-level wind and humidity features played the dominant role.

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