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Simone Lolli, James R. Campbell, Jasper R. Lewis, Yu Gu, Jared W. Marquis, Boon Ning Chew, Soo-Chin Liew, Santo V. Salinas, and Ellsworth J. Welton

Abstract

Daytime top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) cirrus cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is estimated for cirrus clouds observed in ground-based lidar observations at Singapore in 2010 and 2011. Estimates are derived both over land and water to simulate conditions over the broader Maritime Continent archipelago of Southeast Asia. Based on bookend constraints of the lidar extinction-to-backscatter ratio (20 and 30 sr), used to solve extinction and initialize corresponding radiative transfer model simulations, relative daytime TOA CRF is estimated at 2.858–3.370 W m−2 in 2010 (both 20 and 30 sr, respectively) and 3.078–3.329 W m−2 in 2011 and over water between −0.094 and 0.541 W m−2 in 2010 and −0.598 and 0.433 W m−2 in 2011 (both 30 and 20 sr, respectively). After normalizing these estimates for an approximately 80% local satellite-estimated cirrus cloud occurrence rate, they reduce in absolute daytime terms to 2.198–2.592 W m−2 in 2010 and 2.368–2.561 W m−2 in 2011 over land and −0.072–0.416 W m−2 in 2010 and −0.460–0.333 W m−2 in 2011 over water. These annual estimates are mostly consistent despite a tendency toward lower relative cloud-top heights in 2011. Uncertainties are described. Estimates support the open hypothesis of a meridional hemispheric gradient in cirrus cloud daytime TOA CRF globally, varying from positive near the equator to presumably negative approaching the non-ice-covered poles. They help expand upon the paradigm, however, by conceptualizing differences zonally between overland and overwater forcing that differ significantly. More global oceans are likely subject to negative daytime TOA CRF than previously implied.

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James R. Campbell, Erica K. Dolinar, Simone Lolli, Gilberto J. Fochesatto, Yu Gu, Jasper R. Lewis, Jared W. Marquis, Theodore M. McHardy, David R. Ryglicki, and Ellsworth J. Welton

Abstract

Cirrus cloud daytime top-of-the-atmosphere radiative forcing (TOA CRF) is estimated for a 2-yr NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (532 nm; MPLNET) dataset collected at Fairbanks, Alaska. Two-year-averaged daytime TOA CRF is estimated to be between −1.08 and 0.78 W·m−2 (from −0.49 to 1.10 W·m−2 in 2017, and from −1.67 to 0.47 W·m−2 in 2018). This subarctic study completes a now trilogy of MPLNET ground-based cloud forcing investigations, following midlatitude and tropical studies by Campbell et al. at Greenbelt, Maryland, and Lolli et al. at Singapore. Campbell et al. hypothesize a global meridional daytime TOA CRF gradient that begins as positive at the equator (2.20–2.59 W·m−2 over land and from −0.46 to 0.42 W·m−2 over ocean at Singapore), becomes neutral in the midlatitudes (0.03–0.27 W·m−2 over land in Maryland), and turns negative moving poleward. This study does not completely confirm Campbell et al., as values are not found as exclusively negative. Evidence in historical reanalysis data suggests that daytime cirrus forcing in and around the subarctic likely once was exclusively negative. Increasing tropopause heights, inducing higher and colder cirrus, have likely increased regional forcing over the last 40 years. We hypothesize that subarctic interannual cloud variability is likely a considerable influence on global cirrus cloud forcing sensitivity, given the irregularity of polar versus midlatitude synoptic weather intrusions. This study and hypothesis lay the basis for an extrapolation of these MPLNET experiments to satellite-based lidar cirrus cloud datasets.

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