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Dan L. Bergman, Linus Magnusson, Johan Nilsson, and Frederic Vitart

Abstract

A method has been developed to forecast seasonal landfall risk using ensembles of cyclone tracks generated by ECMWF’s seasonal forecast system 4. The method has been applied to analyze and retrospectively forecast the landfall risk along the North American coast. The main result is that the method can be used to forecast landfall for some parts of the coast, but the skill is lower than for basinwide forecasts of activity. The rank correlations between forecasts issued on 1 May and observations are 0.6 for basinwide tropical cyclone number and 0.5 for landfall anywhere along the coast. When the forecast period is limited to the peak of the hurricane season, the landfall correlation increases to 0.6. Moreover, when the forecast issue date is pushed forward to 1 August, basinwide tropical cyclone and hurricane correlations increase to 0.7 and 0.8, respectively, whereas landfall correlations improve less. The quality of the forecasts is in line with that obtained by others.

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