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Jose A. Marengo, Luiz E.O.C. Aragão, Peter M. Cox, Richard Betts, Duarte Costa, Neil Kaye, Lauren T. Smith, Lincoln M. Alves, and Vera Reis
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Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves, Paul Wittmann, Michael Sestak, Jessica Schauer, Scott Stripling, Natacha B. Bernier, Jamie McLean, Yung Chao, Arun Chawla, Hendrik Tolman, Glenn Nelson, and Stephen Klotz

The U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) have joined forces to establish a first global multicenter ensemble system dedicated to probabilistic forecasts of windwave heights. Both centers run independent wave ensemble systems (WES), which are combined onto a multicenter system with 41 members. A performance assessment of the multicenter wave-height product is made relative to altimeter data. Computed estimates of mean errors, ability to represent uncertainty, and reliability of probabilistic forecasts indicate that the multicenter ensemble product outperforms individual WES and deterministic wave models alike. The investigation includes an evaluation made at NCEP's National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the multicenter WES product, including severe sea-state events. The interagency collaboration has provided an opportunity to investigate in more depth the properties of wave ensembles, which has led to planned improvements that are expected to increase the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts within the oceanic environment. These outcomes are expected to be of great benefit to the society, the economy, and the environment. The successful operational implementation of the multicenter product has brought new opportunities for further collaboration with operational centers in North America, and a planned upgrade to the current interagency system is the inclusion of 20 additional members from a WES under development at Environment Canada.

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Tim Li, Abdallah Abida, Laura S. Aldeco, Eric J. Alfaro, Lincoln M. Alves, Jorge A. Amador, B. Andrade, Julian Baez, M. Yu. Bardin, Endalkachew Bekele, Eric Broedel, Brandon Bukunt, Blanca Calderón, Jayaka D. Campbell, Diego A. Campos Diaz, Gilma Carvajal, Elise Chandler, Vincent. Y. S. Cheng, Chulwoon Choi, Leonardo A. Clarke, Kris Correa, Felipe Costa, A. P. Cunha, Mesut Demircan, R. Dhurmea, Eliecer A. Díaz, M. ElKharrim, Bantwale D. Enyew, Jhan C. Espinoza, Amin Fazl-Kazem, Nava Fedaeff, Z. Feng, Chris Fenimore, S. D. Francis, Karin Gleason, Charles “Chip” P. Guard, Indra Gustari, S. Hagos, Richard R. Heim Jr., Rafael Hernández, Hugo G. Hidalgo, J. A. Ijampy, Annie C. Joseph, Guillaume Jumaux, Khadija Kabidi, Johannes W. Kaiser, Pierre-Honore Kamsu-Tamo, John Kennedy, Valentina Khan, Mai Van Khiem, Khatuna Kokosadze, Natalia N. Korshunova, Andries C. Kruger, Nato Kutaladze, L. Labbé, Mónika Lakatos, Hoang Phuc Lam, Mark A. Lander, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, T. C. Lee, Kinson H. Y. Leung, Andrew D. Magee, Jostein Mamen, José A. Marengo, Dora Marín, Charlotte McBride, Lia Megrelidze, Noelia Misevicius, Y. Mochizuki, Aurel Moise, Jorge Molina-Carpio, Natali Mora, Awatif E. Mostafa, uan José Nieto, Lamjav Oyunjargal, Reynaldo Pascual Ramírez, Maria Asuncion Pastor Saavedra, Uwe Pfeifroth, David Phillips, Madhavan Rajeevan, Andrea M. Ramos, Jayashree V. Revadekar, Miliaritiana Robjhon, Ernesto Rodriguez Camino, Esteban Rodriguez Guisado, Josyane Ronchail, Benjamin Rösner, Roberto Salinas, Amal Sayouri, Carl J. Schreck III, Serhat Sensoy, A. Shimpo, Fatou Sima, Adam Smith, Jacqueline Spence, Sandra Spillane, Arne Spitzer, A. K. Srivastava, José L. Stella, Kimberly A. Stephenson, Tannecia S. Stephenson, Michael A. Taylor, Wassila Thiaw, Skie Tobin, Dennis Todey, Katja Trachte, Adrian R. Trotman, Gerard van der Schrier, Cedric J. Van Meerbeeck, Ahad Vazifeh, José Vicencio Veloso, Wei Wang, Fei Xin, Peiqun Zhang, Zhiwei Zhu, and Jonas Zucule
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