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Chia-Ping Cheng, Hen-I Lin, Simon Wang, Po-Ting Dean Liu, and Kung-Yueh Camyale Chao
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Dale Barker, Xiang-Yu Huang, Zhiquan Liu, Tom Auligné, Xin Zhang, Steven Rugg, Raji Ajjaji, Al Bourgeois, John Bray, Yongsheng Chen, Meral Demirtas, Yong-Run Guo, Tom Henderson, Wei Huang, Hui-Chuan Lin, John Michalakes, Syed Rizvi, and Xiaoyan Zhang

Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems. This paper provides an overview of the scientific capabilities of WRFDA, and together with results from sample operation implementations at the U.S. Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and United Arab Emirates (UAE) Air Force and Air Defense Meteorological Department.

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D. H. Bromwich, A. B. Wilson, L. Bai, Z. Liu, M. Barlage, C.-F. Shih, S. Maldonado, K. M. Hines, S.-H. Wang, J. Woollen, B. Kuo, H.-C. Lin, T.-K. Wee, M. C. Serreze, and J. E. Walsh

Abstract

The Arctic is a vital component of the global climate, and its rapid environmental evolution is an important element of climate change around the world. To detect and diagnose the changes occurring to the coupled Arctic climate system, a state-of-the-art synthesis for assessment and monitoring is imperative. This paper presents the Arctic System Reanalysis, version 2 (ASRv2), a multiagency, university-led retrospective analysis (reanalysis) of the greater Arctic region using blends of the polar-optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (Polar WRF) Model and WRF three-dimensional variational data assimilated observations for a comprehensive integration of the regional climate of the Arctic for 2000–12. New features in ASRv2 compared to version 1 (ASRv1) include 1) higher-resolution depiction in space (15-km horizontal resolution), 2) updated model physics including subgrid-scale cloud fraction interaction with radiation, and 3) a dual outer-loop routine for more accurate data assimilation. ASRv2 surface and pressure-level products are available at 3-hourly and monthly mean time scales at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Analysis of ASRv2 reveals superior reproduction of near-surface and tropospheric variables. Broadscale analysis of forecast precipitation and site-specific comparisons of downward radiative fluxes demonstrate significant improvement over ASRv1. The high-resolution topography and land surface, including weekly updated vegetation and realistic sea ice fraction, sea ice thickness, and snow-cover depth on sea ice, resolve finescale processes such as topographically forced winds. Thus, ASRv2 permits a reconstruction of the rapid change in the Arctic since the beginning of the twenty-first century–complementing global reanalyses. ASRv2 products will be useful for environmental models, verification of regional processes, or siting of future observation networks.

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Yali Luo, Renhe Zhang, Qilin Wan, Bin Wang, Wai Kin Wong, Zhiqun Hu, Ben Jong-Dao Jou, Yanluan Lin, Richard H. Johnson, Chih-Pei Chang, Yuejian Zhu, Xubin Zhang, Hui Wang, Rudi Xia, Juhui Ma, Da-Lin Zhang, Mei Gao, Yijun Zhang, Xi Liu, Yangruixue Chen, Huijun Huang, Xinghua Bao, Zheng Ruan, Zhehu Cui, Zhiyong Meng, Jiaxiang Sun, Mengwen Wu, Hongyan Wang, Xindong Peng, Weimiao Qian, Kun Zhao, and Yanjiao Xiao

Abstract

During the presummer rainy season (April–June), southern China often experiences frequent occurrences of extreme rainfall, leading to severe flooding and inundations. To expedite the efforts in improving the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) of the presummer rainy season rainfall, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) initiated a nationally coordinated research project, namely, the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) that was endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a research and development project (RDP) of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The SCMREX RDP (2013–18) consists of four major components: field campaign, database management, studies on physical mechanisms of heavy rainfall events, and convection-permitting numerical experiments including impact of data assimilation, evaluation/improvement of model physics, and ensemble prediction. The pilot field campaigns were carried out from early May to mid-June of 2013–15. This paper: i) describes the scientific objectives, pilot field campaigns, and data sharing of SCMREX; ii) provides an overview of heavy rainfall events during the SCMREX-2014 intensive observing period; and iii) presents examples of preliminary research results and explains future research opportunities.

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F. Vitart, C. Ardilouze, A. Bonet, A. Brookshaw, M. Chen, C. Codorean, M. Déqué, L. Ferranti, E. Fucile, M. Fuentes, H. Hendon, J. Hodgson, H.-S. Kang, A. Kumar, H. Lin, G. Liu, X. Liu, P. Malguzzi, I. Mallas, M. Manoussakis, D. Mastrangelo, C. MacLachlan, P. McLean, A. Minami, R. Mladek, T. Nakazawa, S. Najm, Y. Nie, M. Rixen, A. W. Robertson, P. Ruti, C. Sun, Y. Takaya, M. Tolstykh, F. Venuti, D. Waliser, S. Woolnough, T. Wu, D.-J. Won, H. Xiao, R. Zaripov, and L. Zhang

Abstract

Demands are growing rapidly in the operational prediction and applications communities for forecasts that fill the gap between medium-range weather and long-range or seasonal forecasts. Based on the potential for improved forecast skill at the subseasonal to seasonal time range, the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction research project has been established by the World Weather Research Programme/World Climate Research Programme. A main deliverable of this project is the establishment of an extensive database containing subseasonal (up to 60 days) forecasts, 3 weeks behind real time, and reforecasts from 11 operational centers, modeled in part on the The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database for medium-range forecasts (up to 15 days).

The S2S database, available to the research community since May 2015, represents an important tool to advance our understanding of the subseasonal to seasonal time range that has been considered for a long time as a “desert of predictability.” In particular, this database will help identify common successes and shortcomings in the model simulation and prediction of sources of subseasonal to seasonal predictability. For instance, a preliminary study suggests that the S2S models significantly underestimate the amplitude of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) teleconnections over the Euro-Atlantic sector. The S2S database also represents an important tool for case studies of extreme events. For instance, a multimodel combination of S2S models displays higher probability of a landfall over the islands of Vanuatu 2–3 weeks before Tropical Cyclone Pam devastated the islands in March 2015.

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Suranjana Saha, Shrinivas Moorthi, Hua-Lu Pan, Xingren Wu, Jiande Wang, Sudhir Nadiga, Patrick Tripp, Robert Kistler, John Woollen, David Behringer, Haixia Liu, Diane Stokes, Robert Grumbine, George Gayno, Jun Wang, Yu-Tai Hou, Hui-ya Chuang, Hann-Ming H. Juang, Joe Sela, Mark Iredell, Russ Treadon, Daryl Kleist, Paul Van Delst, Dennis Keyser, John Derber, Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Helin Wei, Rongqian Yang, Stephen Lord, Huug van den Dool, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Craig Long, Muthuvel Chelliah, Yan Xue, Boyin Huang, Jae-Kyung Schemm, Wesley Ebisuzaki, Roger Lin, Pingping Xie, Mingyue Chen, Shuntai Zhou, Wayne Higgins, Cheng-Zhi Zou, Quanhua Liu, Yong Chen, Yong Han, Lidia Cucurull, Richard W. Reynolds, Glenn Rutledge, and Mitch Goldberg

The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was completed for the 31-yr period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and executed as a global, high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface–sea ice system to provide the best estimate of the state of these coupled domains over this period. The current CFSR will be extended as an operational, real-time product into the future. New features of the CFSR include 1) coupling of the atmosphere and ocean during the generation of the 6-h guess field, 2) an interactive sea ice model, and 3) assimilation of satellite radiances by the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) scheme over the entire period. The CFSR global atmosphere resolution is ~38 km (T382) with 64 levels extending from the surface to 0.26 hPa. The global ocean's latitudinal spacing is 0.25° at the equator, extending to a global 0.5° beyond the tropics, with 40 levels to a depth of 4737 m. The global land surface model has four soil levels and the global sea ice model has three layers. The CFSR atmospheric model has observed variations in carbon dioxide (CO2) over the 1979–2009 period, together with changes in aerosols and other trace gases and solar variations. Most available in situ and satellite observations were included in the CFSR. Satellite observations were used in radiance form, rather than retrieved values, and were bias corrected with “spin up” runs at full resolution, taking into account variable CO2 concentrations. This procedure enabled the smooth transitions of the climate record resulting from evolutionary changes in the satellite observing system.

CFSR atmospheric, oceanic, and land surface output products are available at an hourly time resolution and a horizontal resolution of 0.5° latitude × 0.5° longitude. The CFSR data will be distributed by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and NCAR. This reanalysis will serve many purposes, including providing the basis for most of the NCEP Climate Prediction Center's operational climate products by defining the mean states of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and sea ice over the next 30-yr climate normal (1981–2010); providing initial conditions for historical forecasts that are required to calibrate operational NCEP climate forecasts (from week 2 to 9 months); and providing estimates and diagnoses of the Earth's climate state over the satellite data period for community climate research.

Preliminary analysis of the CFSR output indicates a product that is far superior in most respects to the reanalysis of the mid-1990s. The previous NCEP–NCAR reanalyses have been among the most used NCEP products in history; there is every reason to believe the CFSR will supersede these older products both in scope and quality, because it is higher in time and space resolution, covers the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land, and was executed in a coupled mode with a more modern data assimilation system and forecast model.

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Jhoon Kim, Ukkyo Jeong, Myoung-Hwan Ahn, Jae H. Kim, Rokjin J. Park, Hanlim Lee, Chul Han Song, Yong-Sang Choi, Kwon-Ho Lee, Jung-Moon Yoo, Myeong-Jae Jeong, Seon Ki Park, Kwang-Mog Lee, Chang-Keun Song, Sang-Woo Kim, Young Joon Kim, Si-Wan Kim, Mijin Kim, Sujung Go, Xiong Liu, Kelly Chance, Christopher Chan Miller, Jay Al-Saadi, Ben Veihelmann, Pawan K. Bhartia, Omar Torres, Gonzalo González Abad, David P. Haffner, Dai Ho Ko, Seung Hoon Lee, Jung-Hun Woo, Heesung Chong, Sang Seo Park, Dennis Nicks, Won Jun Choi, Kyung-Jung Moon, Ara Cho, Jongmin Yoon, Sang-kyun Kim, Hyunkee Hong, Kyunghwa Lee, Hana Lee, Seoyoung Lee, Myungje Choi, Pepijn Veefkind, Pieternel F. Levelt, David P. Edwards, Mina Kang, Mijin Eo, Juseon Bak, Kanghyun Baek, Hyeong-Ahn Kwon, Jiwon Yang, Junsung Park, Kyung Man Han, Bo-Ram Kim, Hee-Woo Shin, Haklim Choi, Ebony Lee, Jihyo Chong, Yesol Cha, Ja-Ho Koo, Hitoshi Irie, Sachiko Hayashida, Yasko Kasai, Yugo Kanaya, Cheng Liu, Jintai Lin, James H. Crawford, Gregory R. Carmichael, Michael J. Newchurch, Barry L. Lefer, Jay R. Herman, Robert J. Swap, Alexis K. H. Lau, Thomas P. Kurosu, Glen Jaross, Berit Ahlers, Marcel Dobber, C. Thomas McElroy, and Yunsoo Choi

Abstract

The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is scheduled for launch in February 2020 to monitor air quality (AQ) at an unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution from a geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) for the first time. With the development of UV–visible spectrometers at sub-nm spectral resolution and sophisticated retrieval algorithms, estimates of the column amounts of atmospheric pollutants (O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, CHOCHO, and aerosols) can be obtained. To date, all the UV–visible satellite missions monitoring air quality have been in low Earth orbit (LEO), allowing one to two observations per day. With UV–visible instruments on GEO platforms, the diurnal variations of these pollutants can now be determined. Details of the GEMS mission are presented, including instrumentation, scientific algorithms, predicted performance, and applications for air quality forecasts through data assimilation. GEMS will be on board the Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite 2 (GEO-KOMPSAT-2) satellite series, which also hosts the Advanced Meteorological Imager (AMI) and Geostationary Ocean Color Imager 2 (GOCI-2). These three instruments will provide synergistic science products to better understand air quality, meteorology, the long-range transport of air pollutants, emission source distributions, and chemical processes. Faster sampling rates at higher spatial resolution will increase the probability of finding cloud-free pixels, leading to more observations of aerosols and trace gases than is possible from LEO. GEMS will be joined by NASA’s Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) and ESA’s Sentinel-4 to form a GEO AQ satellite constellation in early 2020s, coordinated by the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS).

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