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Ruth Geen, F. H. Lambert, and G. K. Vallis

smaller excursions from the equator. The deep MLD and lack of Q fluxes in this experiment means that the surface temperature lags the peak insolation by about 90 days. This simulation does not exhibit other features of monsoon onset, with no reversal of the zonal wind direction (not shown). This experiment is presented as an example of a climate that remains in the equinoctial regime and for comparison with the other 20-m MLD ocean experiments (see Table 1 ). Moist static energy (MSE) is also shown

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Tobias Sauter and Victor Venema

by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), Grant VE366/3-1. REFERENCES Bárdossy , A. , J. Stehlík , and H. Caspary , 2002 : Automated objective classification of daily circulation patterns for precipitation and temperature downscaling based on optimized fuzzy rules . Climate Res. , 23 , 11 – 22 . Beckmann , B.-R. , and T. A. Buishand , 2002 : Statistical downscaling relationships for precipitation in the Netherlands and north Germany . Int. J. Climatol. , 22 , 15 – 32

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Gabriele Villarini, Gabriel A. Vecchi, and James A. Smith

frequency and large-scale climate conditions is an essential step in order to improve our predictive and explanatory understanding of TS variations. Multiple studies have associated tropical storm activity with different climate indices, such as Atlantic (e.g., Shapiro and Goldenberg 1998 ; Landsea et al. 1999 ; Vitart and Anderson 2001 ; Emanuel 2005 ; Jagger and Elsner 2006 ; Bell and Chelliah 2006 ; Hoyos et al. 2006 ; Saunders and Lea 2008 ) and tropical (e.g., Latif et al. 2007 ; Vecchi

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Andrew W. Colman, Erika J. Palin, Michael G. Sanderson, Robert T. Harrison, and Ian M. Leggett

height forecasting system for the northern North Sea that predicts wave heights 8 months ahead is described. The forecasting system is based on the sign and magnitude of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which are forecast using sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic for the preceding month of May. The skill of current climate models in predicting the NAO on seasonal time scales is low ( van Oldenborgh 2005 ; Arribas et al. 2010 ). Climate models that include a

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B. S. Felzer, Carol R. Ember, R. Cheng, and M. Jiang

://ehrafworldcultures.yale.edu/webhelp/#Subsistence/subsistence.html ) follows the classification from eHRAF World Cultures, as does the main geographic region for those societies in eHRAF World Cultures; the Ethnographic Atlas (via https://d-place.org/contributions/EA ) provided subsistence information for those SCCS societies that are not yet in eHRAF World Cultures. a. Extreme indices To develop a set of extreme indices to represent droughts and the potential for floods, we have chosen from the 27 core indices developed at the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection

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David Plavcan, Georg J. Mayr, and Achim Zeileis

cooling during a nocturnal downslope wind situation ( Fig. 1b ) leads to stable stratification (Δ θ > 0; Whiteman 2000 ). This difference was exploited to separate foehn from nocturnal downslope winds in an objective foehn classification method (OFC), first devoloped during MAP. It is described in detail in Vergeiner (2004) and summarized in Drechsel and Mayr (2008) . The method classifies wind of at least 2 m s −1 from a downslope sector as foehn when Δ θ is below a station-dependent threshold

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Henry F. Diaz and Eugene R. Wahl

shows that this past WY was among the top three driest WYs on record. We assess how uncommon this most recent WY climate anomaly has been by addressing two questions: 1) How unusual is the 2014 WY total for the California–Nevada region as well as for the nominal western states with respect to the 118-yr instrumental record and a longer paleoclimate reconstruction dating back to 1571? 2) Are the characteristics of the predominant atmospheric circulation patterns consistent with past extremely dry

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Bhupendra A. Raut, Christian Jakob, and Michael J. Reeder

. Narisma , R. A. Pielke Sr., and N. J. Holbrook , 2004 : Impact of land cover change on the climate of southwest Western Australia. J. Geophys. Res., 109, D18109 , doi: 10.1029/2003JD004347 . Polade , S. D. , D. W. Pierce , D. R. Cayan , A. Gershunov , and M. D. Dettinger , 2014 : The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes . Sci. Rep. , 4 , 4364 , doi: 10.1038/srep04364 . Pook , M. J. , J. S. Risbey , and P. C. McIntosh , 2012

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Robert W. Schlegel and Albertus J. Smit

uses symbols to show the time series binned by the three different coastal sections of South Africa ( Smit et al. 2013 ). Of these three coastal sections the east coast is known to have the most stable thermal regime (i.e., with the smallest variance), with the south coast having the greatest variance. Long time series at sites of low variance result in great improvements in our ability to detect significant climate change trends, and this effect is most obvious in time series with steeper decadal

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Steven A. Mauget and Eugene C. Cordero

). However, there is also growing recognition that describing climate in terms of how it projects on linear trends can be misleading or unrepresentative. Barbosa (2011) demonstrated that linear trends are inadequate for describing long-term global sea surface temperature variability. When applied to climate records that are essentially cyclic or have abrupt regime transitions, the magnitude, significance, and signs of trends can be sensitive to the choice of start and end years defining the trend

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