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Steve Rayner

modeling. The newer downscaled climate projections seem to be driven from a predominately scientific perspective rather than a decision-maker one. The challenges of identifying what is policy-relevant and conveying it to decision-makers was evident at a Goyder Institute workshop attended during the study. The workshop audience consisted of a cross section of SA government officials drawn from agencies for which climate change would be most likely to be relevant, either as a forcing factor or because of

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Jason Senkbeil, Jacob Reed, Jennifer Collins, Kimberly Brothers, Michelle Saunders, Walker Skeeter, Emily Cerrito, Saurav Chakraborty, and Amy Polen

accurate representation of Central Texas Gulf Coast residents with eight White, four Hispanic/Latino, one African American, and three participants indicating other or multiracial. Eleven of the participants had previously experienced hurricanes, and recent hurricanes Rita (2005), Ike (2008), and Claudette (2009) were the most frequently mentioned storms that influenced their decision-making. However, Rita (2005) and Ike (2008) did not directly impact their locations with hurricane force conditions

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Jagadish Thaker, Edward Maibach, Anthony Leiserowitz, Xiaoquan Zhao, and Peter Howe

for effective mitigation: Forcing people to be green or fostering grass-roots engagement? Sci. Commun. , 30 , 305 – 327 , doi: 10.1177/1075547008328969 . O’Neill, S. , and Nicholson-Cole S. , 2009 : “Fear won’t do it”: Promoting positive engagement with climate change through visual and iconic representations . Sci. Commun. , 30 , 355 – 379 , doi: 10.1177/1075547008329201 . Papa, M. J. , Singhal A. , Law S. , Pant S. , Sood S. , Rogers E. M. , and Shefner-Rogers C. L

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Julie E. Doll, Brian Petersen, and Claire Bode

their operations. Farmers noted other changes they have witnessed in recent years. Several pointed to changes in wind patterns. They suggested winds have increased in force, leading to soil loss and consequences for crops. Others noted changes in wind patterns but attributed them to non-climate-related factors. Some suggested that the windier conditions stem from taking out windbreaks to increase production acreage or to leveling fields, or as one farmer put it, “Now with a bigger outfit [acreage

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Jun-Jie Chang, Yi-Ming Wei, Xiao-Chen Yuan, Hua Liao, and Bi-Ying Yu

; Sartori and Roson 2016 ; Hsiang et al. 2017 ), travel ( Lise and Tol 2002 ; Sartori and Roson 2016 ), human health ( Caminade et al. 2014 ; Barreca et al. 2016 ), total factor productivity (TFP) ( Zhang et al. 2018 ), capital ( Zhang et al. 2018 ), labor force ( Graff Zivin and Neidell 2014 ), and so on. Generally, there are significant temperature effects on not only the components of economy including agricultural, industrial, and service sectors, but also the economic factors including total

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Erik Løhre, Marie Juanchich, Miroslav Sirota, Karl Halvor Teigen, and Theodore G. Shepherd

exactly how the climate will change, even under a given forcing scenario (such conditional predictions are typically called projections). Thus, climate scientists generally issue predictions in the form of interval (range) forecasts (e.g., from 0.3° to 1.7°C of temperature rise 1 or from 0.26 to 0.55 m of sea level rise) rather than point forecasts (e.g., 1.0°C of temperature rise). Interval estimates allow a trade-off between forecast precision and forecast certainty, or what Yaniv and Foster (1995

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Tamara U. Wall, Timothy J. Brown, and Nicholas J. Nauslar

Administration’s Climate Program Office supported the research through Grant NA11OAR4310150, along with the California Nevada Applications Program at the Desert Research Institute. REFERENCES Altheide , D. L. , 1987 : Reflections: Ethnographic content analysis . Qual. Sociol. , 10 , 65 – 77 , doi: 10.1007/BF00988269 . 10.1007/BF00988269 AMS , 2008 : Enhancing weather information with probability forecasts . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 89 , 1049 – 1051 . [Available online at https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/about-ams/ams-statements/statements-of-the-ams-in-force

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Robert V. Rohli, Jennifer M. Collins, Robin L. Ersing, G. Douglas Lunsford, and Ashley M. Ludwig

within a zone susceptible to hurricane-force winds. The 107 respondents lived in Baton Rouge (within 120 km of an impacted coast) for an average of approximately 5 years. The time that the participants had been housing staff employees at LSU ranged from 3 months to over 8 years. c. Preparedness and constructs that measure hurricane influences Table 2 summarizes the scores by measure. For the preparedness variable measure, the mean score was 6.96 of a possible 11, or 63%, with a standard deviation of

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Randall S. Cerveny, Pierre Bessemoulin, Christopher C. Burt, Mary Ann Cooper, Zhang Cunjie, Ashraf Dewan, Jonathan Finch, Ronald L. Holle, Laurence Kalkstein, Andries Kruger, Tsz-cheung Lee, Rodney Martínez, M. Mohapatra, D. R. Pattanaik, Thomas C. Peterson, Scott Sheridan, Blair Trewin, Andrew Tait, and M. M. Abdel Wahab

later became the first Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department. Eliot (through Macintosh) (in Greely 1888 ) gives the following account: “A terrific storm of hail followed, breaking all the windows and glass doors. The verandas were blown away by the wind. A great portion of the roof fell in, and the massive pucca portico was blown down. The walls shook. It was nearly dark outside, and hail-stones of an enormous size were dashed down with a force which I have never seen

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Benjamin M. Miller

this promising start, the use of the word “tornado” was banned from official forecasts from 1887 until 1938 due to concerns that incited panic would outweigh any benefits from tornado forecasts ( Coleman et al. 2011 ). Because of this policy, the first successful forecast of a potential tornadic event at a more precise location did not occur until a 1948 forecast at Tinker Air Force Base was made possible by a “fortuitous series of events” ( Grice et al. 1999 ). Following this much-lauded forecast

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