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Hye-Mi Kim, Edmund K. M. Chang, and Minghua Zhang

1. Introduction Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) represent one of the most destructive kinds of weather systems. These storms bring about high winds, heavy rain, and storm surge that can lead to substantial losses in life and property. Recent storms, such as Sandy in 2012 and Irene in 2011, have provided reminders that the heavily populated northeastern United States is an area that is prone to being affected by TCs. Given their significant impacts, accurate seasonal forecasts of TC activity

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William E. Togstad, Jonathan M. Davies, Sarah J. Corfidi, David R. Bright, and Andrew R. Dean

these elevated cases. b. Statistical verification One means of accomplishing a statistical verification for any new forecast technique is to provide comparative statistics between the new technique and an accepted standard. The most recent version of STP (effective-layer STP; Thompson et al. 2011 ) provides such a standard because it is used operationally as severe thunderstorm and tornado forecast guidance by NWS forecasters. Because the regression equations output a conditional probability value

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David R. Novak, Christopher Bailey, Keith F. Brill, Patrick Burke, Wallace A. Hogsett, Robert Rausch, and Michael Schichtel

1. Introduction As the skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and associated postprocessed guidance continues to improve, recent debate asks to what degree can human forecasters add quality 1 to NWP (e.g., Mass 2003 ; Bosart 2003 ; Roebber et al. 2004 ; Reynolds 2003 ; Doswell 2004 ; Stuart et al. 2006 , 2007 ; Homar et al. 2006 ; Novak et al. 2008 ; Ruth et al. 2009 ). The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Weather Prediction Center (WPC 2 ) has a broad

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Jonathan M. Davies

core tornadoes: A forecasting technique. Prairie Storm Prediction Centre Internal Rep., Environment Canada, 7 pp . Miller, R. C. , 1972 : Notes on analysis and severe-storm forecasting procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. AWS Tech. Rep. 200 (rev.), Air Weather Service, Scott AFB, IL, 190 pp . Moncrief, M. , and Miller M. J. , 1976 : The dynamics and simulation of tropical cumulonimbus and squall lines. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. , 102 , 373 – 394 . 10.1002/qj.49710243208

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Y. Helen Yang and Patrick King

1. Introduction Lightning is a high-impact weather phenomenon that causes about 9–10 deaths and 92–164 injuries in Canada each year ( Mills et al. 2008 ). It also causes significant property damage and economic losses. Lightning is particularly important to the aviation industry. Ground operations at airports are sensitive to lightning activity within their aerodromes. Hence, it is of great interest to be able to timely and accurately forecast lightning, as this ability may lead to possible

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Duo Yang, Harold Ritchie, Serge Desjardins, Garry Pearson, Allan MacAfee, and Ismail Gultepe

interaction between radiative transfer and fog microphysics. Bergot and Guedalia (1994) emphasized the importance of precise knowledge of initial humidity profiles as well as the sensitivity of fog formation to the low and midlevel clouds through radiation balance. Bergot et al. (2005) further emphasized the importance of initial conditions and hence an accurate local assimilation scheme. Using a one-column version of the model developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF

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Ricardo Martins Campos, Jose-Henrique G. M. Alves, Stephen G. Penny, and Vladimir Krasnopolsky

1. Introduction Accurate wave forecasts are important for monitoring waves that threaten ships either at sea or at harbor, as well as offshore and coastal structures. When dealing with structures and wave energy converters, model skill becomes very important due to the quadratic relation of the wave energy in relation to the wave height, according to linear wave theory ( Airy 1841 ). For a monochromatic wave, the total energy is integrated over the wavelength, which is directly proportional to

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Marie Boisserie, Laurent Descamps, and Philippe Arbogast

(the same 88 synoptic stations as in section 2a ). As this work focuses on the predictability of severe windstorms at the early to medium range, scores for 10-m wind speed and 24-h wind gust are only shown at 78- and 102-h lead times (forecasts are valid at 0000 UTC). The estimated 5th and 95th quantiles of each score use a bootstrapping sampling technique ( Efron and Tibshirani 1993 ; Candille et al. 2007 ), which will allow us to determine whether the difference between two scores is

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Paul M. James, Bernhard K. Reichert, and Dirk Heizenreder

seamless prediction system for very short range convective-scale forecasting at DWD. 38th Conf. on Radar Meteorology , Chicago, IL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., KS3.1, . Bunkers , M. J. , B. A. Klimowski , J. W. Zeitler , R. L. Thompson , and M. L. Weisman , 2000 : Predicting supercell motion using a new hodograph technique . Wea. Forecasting , 15 , 61 – 79 ,<0061:PSMUAN>2.0.CO;2 . 10

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Barry H. Lynn, Guy Kelman, and Gary Ellrod

widely employed in numerical weather prediction models to improve the forecast of high-impact weather events (e.g., Gao et al. 2004 ; Aksoy et al. 2009 ; Alexander et al. 2010 ; Sun et al. 2012 ). Fierro and Reisner (2011) and Fierro et al. (2012) proposed a simple, easy-to-implement assimilation technique that uses observed lightning (explained below). Fierro et al. (2012) compared observed versus model-derived radar data and showed that the assimilation of lightning improved the structure

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