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Richard L. Livingston and Joseph T. Schaefer

, verification measures(typically the 500-mb anomaly correlation coefficient Corresponding author address: Richard Livingston, NOAA/NWS/Central Region, 601 East 12th St., Rm 1836, Kansas City, MO 64106.c 1990 American Meteorological Societyor the rms-height error values) more often than notrepresent an evaluation of the entire spectrum of wavelengths forecast by the model. What is not well publicized (at least as perceived by the authors) is that themedium-range forecast skill for the shorter waves

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Charles R. Sampson, Paul A. Wittmann, and Hendrik L. Tolman

Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS; Hogan and Rosmond 1991 ) run at the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) is used to produce wind forcing for a third-generation spectral ocean wave model (WAVEWATCH III; Tolman 1991 ; Tolman et al. 2002 ), as described in Rogers et al. (2005) . The NOGAPS tropical cyclone forecast for this time is shown in Fig. 1a . The initial NOGAPS position is within 0.1° latitude of the JTWC-analyzed position at the time, but the NOGAPS initial

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Jodi C. Beattie and Russell L. Elsberry

contributed to their formation. The first is Rossby wave dispersion along a chain of cyclonic circulations, as in Fig. 3 ; the second is energy flux associated with easterly waves; and the third is energy flux associated with a cross-equatorial (southerly) flow. Each mechanism was investigated by means of a wave-activity flux calculation to determine the primary mechanism for formation. Takaya and Nakamura (2001) used the wave-activity flux to identify wave propagation and understand the atmospheric

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Ray Bell and Ben Kirtman

. There are two standout models in the assessment of individual models—CFSv2 and GloSea5; both of which have a high level of skill at predicting winds and waves in the North Atlantic as well as the year-to-year variability. The correlation coefficient of the ensemble mean forecast with the observed NAO is 0.74 for CFSv2 and 0.64 for GloSea5. Kim et al. (2012) found CFSv2 captures the expected winter atmospheric response to ENSO, moreso in the Pacific, but to a degree in the North Atlantic. In

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Hao Jin, Melinda S. Peng, Yi Jin, and James D. Doyle

Walsh E. J. , 2007 : The CBLAST-Hurricane Program and the next-generation fully coupled atmosphere–wave–ocean models for hurricane research and prediction . Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. , 88 , 311 – 317 . Crossett, K. M. , Culliton T. J. , Wiley P. C. , and Goodspeed T. R. , 2008 : Population trends along the coastal United States: 1980–2008. Coastal Trends Report Series, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 47 pp . Cummings, J. A. , 2005 : Operational multivariate ocean

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Andrew D. Snyder, Zhaoxia Pu, and Yuejian Zhu

Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System forecasts. Wea. Forecasting , 17 , 800 – 820 . 10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0800:TCFOTW>2.0.CO;2 Fink, A. H. , Vincent D. G. , Reiner P. M. , and Speth P. , 2004 : Mean state and wave disturbances during phases I, II, and III of GATE based on ERA-40. Mon. Wea. Rev. , 132 , 1661 – 1683 . 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<1661:MSAWDD>2.0.CO;2 Goerss, J. S. , 2000 : Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea

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L. C. Breaker, L. D. Burroughs, Y. Y. Chao, J. F. Culp, N. L. Guinasso Jr., R. L. Teboulle, and C. R. Wong

speed, wind gust, air temperature, and the surface wave field werestrongly influenced at locations generally within 100 km of the hurricane track. Maximum sustained winds of75 m s-~ occurred just north of the storm track near Miami (Fowey Rocks). Significant wave height increasedfrom I to 6.4 m at one NDBC buoy in the Gulf of Mexico (25.9-N, 85.9-N). A record high water level occurredat North Miami Beach. Decreases in water level occurred along the west coast of Florida with a maximumnegative surge

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David B. Gilhousen

wasindicated on the National Meteorological Center's automated surface analyses. Ocean wave observations reveal some of the steepest waves NDBC has ever measured, indicating phenomenalwave growth and a high potential for damage to vessels and structures. A warm eddy caused sea surface temperatures (SST) to be several degrees above normal under the track of the storm, creating a strong SST gradientto the north. This provided ample energy and strengthened the baroclinicity. NDBC observations showed

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Steven M. Lazarus, Samuel T. Wilson, Michael E. Splitt, and Gary A. Zarillo

operational wave forecasting (e.g., Roulston et al. 2005 ; Chen 2006 ). Probabilistic wave forecasts may ultimately be more useful in extreme wind events, but in order for the ensemble approach to be viable, the forecasts should be free of bias (e.g., Hamill 2000 ). Wave hindcasting can be computationally expensive, especially when high-resolution atmospheric models are used to generate the surface wind field ( Cardone et al. 2000 ). Here, an efficient method by which to produce a TC wind analysis

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G. S. Young, T. N. Sikora, and N. S. Winstead

direction. Patterns in SAR backscatter from the ocean result from corresponding modulations of the centimeter-scale wind-induced wave state by both oceanic and atmospheric phenomena. Given the aforementioned high resolution of typical SARs, and their order 100–1000-km swath widths, they are ideal instruments for sensing the sea surface signatures of those phenomena over a wide range of scales. Examples of signatures of oceanic phenomena imaged by SAR include swell, internal waves, surface currents, and

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