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Andrew N. Staniforth and Herschel L. Mitchell

APmL1978 ANDREW N. STANIFORTH AND HERSCHEL L. MITCHELL 439- A Variable-Resolution l*inite-Element Technique for Regional Forecasting with the Primitive Equations ANDREW N. STANiFORTH AND HERSCHEL L. MITCHELLIRecherche en Pr~vision Num~rique, Atmospheric Environment Service, Dorval, Quebec HPP 1J3 Canada (Manuscript received 27 June 1977, in final form 5 December 1977)ABSTRACT A

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Edward C. Johnston

JUNE 1995 KAPELA ET AL. 229 Forecasting the Impacts of Strong Wintertime Post-Cold Front Winds in the Northern Plains ANTON F. KAPELA National Weather Service Forecast Office, Sullivan, Wisconsin PRESTON W. LEFTWlCH National Weather Service, Central Region Scientific Services Division, Kansas City, Missouri

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Munehiko Yamaguchi and Naohisa Koide

–dynamical. One of the examples of the statistical approach is TC genesis guidance using the Dvorak technique ( Dvorak 1975 , 1984 ). Cossuth et al. (2013) statistically calculated the likelihood that tropical disturbances analyzed using the Dvorak technique at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center from 2001 to 2011 reached TC intensity. The results can be used as a baseline or climatology for disturbance-based TC genesis forecasts. For the feasibility of NWP models

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Pradeep V. Mandapaka, Urs Germann, Luca Panziera, and Alessandro Hering

with high resolution, many radar-based very short-term QPF (also referred to as nowcasting) techniques were developed over the years (e.g., Austin and Bellon 1974 ; Seo and Smith 1992 ; Andrieu et al. 1996 ; Dolciné et al. 1997 ; Mecklenburg et al. 2000 ; Pierce et al. 2000 ; Germann and Zawadzki 2002 ; Mueller et al. 2003 ; Seed 2003 ; Bowler et al. 2004 , 2006 ). The radar echo extrapolation is one of the earlier and most widely used very short-term QPF techniques. The forecasts from

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Benjamin Root, Paul Knight, George Young, Steven Greybush, Richard Grumm, Ron Holmes, and Jeremy Ross

over a limited domain. The key difference in the current work is that the analog technique is applied to NWP forecast maps as a pattern-recognition tool rather than to analysis maps as a forecast tool. Thus, the forecast skill of the system depends in large measure on the underlying NWP model rather than on the subsequent application of analogs. In this paper, a method is presented that leverages the existence of limited-area analogs ( Van den Dool 1994 ) and distinct weather patterns or

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Sarah A. Baker, Andrew W. Wood, and Balaji Rajagopalan

climatological correction without considering forecast skill. The authors demonstrate that forecast calibration techniques (e.g., the Bayesian joint probability method) are needed to account for skill in the course of adjusting both forecast mean and forecast spread. Some statistical postprocessing techniques employ additional information from large-scale climate fields to improve dynamical model forecasts. Many studies have focused on improving seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts ( DelSole and

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Adam Winstral, Tobias Jonas, and Nora Helbig

probability density functions at 31 stations in the north-central United States from National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses data (~200 km resolution), while Curry et al. (2012) sought statistical relationships between climate forecast variables and similar reanalysis data to derive monthly Weibull distribution parameters. Huang et al. (2015) used a combination of physical and statistical nondynamic downscaling techniques to test if

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Kevin Birk, Eric Lenning, Kevin Donofrio, and Matthew T. Friedlein

use of implicit techniques based on vertical thermal profiles rather than explicit techniques utilizing model microphysics. Reeves et al. (2016) discusses a number of limitations related to model microphysics schemes. One not mentioned is that when a model is struggling to match surface and upper-air observational trends, explicit precipitation-type output based on its microphysics will misrepresent what is actually occurring at a particular time and location. Tools for making real-time forecast

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Samantha L. Lynch and Russ S. Schumacher

) and Mullen and Buizza (2001) also found that the accuracy in precipitation forecasts decreases as the rainfall threshold increases. Hakim and Torn (2008) introduced the technique of ensemble synoptic analysis for an extratropical cyclone, finding the relationships between different synoptic features by computing statistical operators such as covariances and correlations within an ensemble of forecasts. Similarly, Torn (2010) used this method to examine the dynamical mechanisms that led to

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K. Fraedrich and L. M. Leslie

AUOUST 1987 K. FRAEDRICH AND L. M. LESLIE 1645Evaluation of Techniques for the Operational, Single Station, Short-Term Forecasting of Rainfall at a Midlatitude Station (Melbourne) K. FRAEDRICH* AND L. M. LESLIEBureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria, 3001, Australia(Manuscript received 22 September 1986, in final form 21 January 1987)ABSTRACT Probabilit~ of

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