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Veronica Nieves, Marta Marcos, and Josh K. Willis

mechanisms and disconnected from the regional pattern of internal variability (e.g., Liu et al. 2016 ). SSH includes other effects that correspond poorly to decadal climate variations (e.g., Church and White 2011 ). In shallow coastal regions, there is also the issue of wind-driven ocean bottom changes that can “disturb” the spectrum of the sea level on time scales of a few years to decades ( Dangendorf et al. 2015 ). A temperature-based index is smoother than sea level, and we should also acknowledge

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P. A. Jiménez, E. García-Bustamante, J. F. González-Rouco, F. Valero, J. P. Montávez, and J. Navarro

developments of renewable energy technologies. Regional variability is controlled by the interaction of large-scale dynamics and orography. Circulation in the free atmosphere is governed by gradients between the large pressure systems. In the lower troposphere, the topography gains importance, generating a dynamical forcing that modifies the direction and intensity of winds resulting from channeling, forced ascents, and barrier effects ( Whiteman 2000 ). These dynamically driven circulations show

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Li Qi and Yuqing Wang

local and regional effects not far from the mountain. Such well-documented effects are the orographic lifting and windward rainfall and leeward rain shadow associated with many mesoscale mountains in different regions of the world (e.g., Grossman and Durran 1984 ; Ogura and Yoshizaki 1988 ; Jou 1994 ; Colle and Mass 1996 ; Doyle 1997 ; Ralph et al. 2003 ; Chen and Li 2005 ; Chien and Kuo 2006 ). It was not until Xie et al. (2001) and Xie et al. (2006) that we have realized that, in

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Xing Liu, Jeff Andresen, Haishun Yang, and Dev Niyogi

1. Introduction This study stems from a regional, multi-institutional project titled “Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop.” The U2U project seeks to develop decision support tools and climate resiliency–related resources for sustainable agriculture and improved profitability in the U.S. Corn Belt. One of the tasks underway is to develop historical and future agroclimatic assessments for U.S. Corn Belt ( ) by

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Seung-Ki Min and Andreas Hense

1900–49, the ALL signal is enhanced over AFR. The MME effects on Bayes factors for 1950–99 are characterized by a strengthening of ALL signals over SAM and EUR and of ANTHRO signal over AUS as in 1900–99, while G has maximum Bayes factors over AFR. As a whole, patterns of Bayes factors for regional SATs are insensitive to intermodel uncertainties in cases of identical priors, which is consistent with previous studies for global mean SATs ( MH06 ). We test the sensitivity of this conclusion to

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David P. Rowell and Robin Chadwick

values imply large interregional and interseasonal differences in the dominant processes that drive projection uncertainty, more so than the interregional commonality, thus requiring that these regions and seasons should be examined separately. 3. Direct versus indirect CO 2 mechanisms The first stage of the mechanistic chain is whether uncertainties in projected regional change are driven more by uncertainties in the direct radiative effects of enhanced CO 2 concentrations or more by uncertainties

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Jinwon Kim, Duane E. Waliser, Chris A. Mattmann, Linda O. Mearns, Cameron E. Goodale, Andrew F. Hart, Dan J. Crichton, Seth McGinnis, Huikyo Lee, Paul C. Loikith, and Maziyar Boustani

associated with the North American monsoon in the 20th century . Geophys. Res. Lett. , 29 , 1650 , doi:10.1029/2001GL014316 . Kim , J. , and J.-E. Lee , 2003 : A multiyear regional climate hindcast for the western United States using the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation model . J. Hydrometeor. , 4 , 878 – 890 . Kim , J. , J. Kim , J. D. Farrara , and J. O. Roads , 2005 : The effects of the Gulf of California SSTs on warm-season rainfall in the southwestern United States and

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Kristen Guirguis, Alexander Gershunov, Alexander Tardy, and Rupa Basu

identify periods in the recent historical record in which daily maximum temperatures and morbidity were strongly correlated. We have previously used CCA to identify heat and humidity effects on county-level emergency-department visits over California in a limited emergency department dataset spanning only 1 yr (2006) and resolving the impacts of only one heat wave ( Gershunov et al. 2011 ). Here, the daily input Tmax ( x ′) and PD ( y ′) data arrays span 11 years, are regionally averaged, and are

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Andre R. Erler, W. Richard Peltier, and Marc D’Orgeville

the other studies, they employed boundary conditions based only on the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) product, which, by design, accounts for major rain shadow effects ( Mesinger et al. 2006 ). In summary, these studies have demonstrated that increased resolution significantly improves the representation of local climatic features, especially (and perhaps surprisingly) precipitation. In recognition of these developments, the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Giorgi

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Kirsten L. Findell, Andrew J. Pitman, Matthew H. England, and Philip J. Pegion

( Forster et al. 2007 ; Findell et al. 2007 ). The change associated with deforestation is normally a decrease in radiative forcing via an increase in albedo (hence this acts to cool the surface through the radiation balance), and the albedo increase can be amplified via a positive feedback with snow ( Betts 2000 ). Models that emphasize the albedo change rather than the changes in available moisture predict a regional cooling associated with deforestation in the midlatitudes (e.g., Bonan 1999

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