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Tsegaye Tadesse, Deborah Bathke, Nicole Wall, Jacob Petr, and Tonya Haigh

Africa is highly vulnerable to adverse impacts of climate change such as increased temperatures, reductions in precipitation, and increased climate variability. In many regions, such as the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA), the effects of these changes are compounded by rapid population growth, high poverty levels, dependence on rain-fed agriculture, and low adaptive capacity. Given the great uncertainty in climate projections for the GHA, early warning systems that are robust to evolving climate

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Qiaohong Sun, Chiyuan Miao, Amir AghaKouchak, Iman Mallakpour, Duoying Ji, and Qingyun Duan

Climate models project a general increase in the frequency and intensity of hydroclimate extremes at regional to global spatial scales during the twenty-first century ( Donat et al. 2017 ; Hirabayashi et al. 2013 ), which is expected to cause severe casualties and economic loss ( Ward et al. 2014 ). This enhancement of extreme events is due to increases in atmospheric water vapor and rates of ascent in clouds ( O’Gorman and Schneider 2009 ; Pfahl et al. 2017 ). Along with these climatic

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Andrew D. Gronewold and Craig A. Stow

) describe these systems, collectively, as sentinels of regional and global changes in climate, land use, and water resource management policy because they integrate the effects of multiple system drivers over broad spatial and temporal scales. Impacts from these changes, such as those documented by Clark et al. (2001) and Livingstone (2003) , range from shifts in the timing and intensity of freshwater inputs and pollutant loadings, to habitat and ecosystem disruption following the invasion and spread

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Stephen Russell Fragaszy, Theresa Jedd, Nicole Wall, Cody Knutson, Makram Belhaj Fraj, Karim Bergaoui, Mark Svoboda, Michael Hayes, and Rachael McDonnell

impacts mirror this progression. In each country, the impacts were different, and the adaptive steps taken by different actors to ameliorate conditions varied. For example, in some areas of Lebanon, private sector tanker drivers stepped in to supply water when municipal systems were shut down for extended periods. Regional studies tend to focus on food and water security issues as well as agricultural productivity and sectoral economic effects (e.g., World Bank 2017 ), whereas national studies tend

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Cynthia Rosenzweig, Radley M. Horton, Daniel A. Bader, Molly E. Brown, Russell DeYoung, Olga Dominguez, Merrilee Fellows, Lawrence Friedl, William Graham, Carlton Hall, Sam Higuchi, Laura Iraci, Gary Jedlovec, Jack Kaye, Max Loewenstein, Thomas Mace, Cristina Milesi, William Patzert, Paul W. Stackhouse Jr., and Kim Toufectis

. [Available online at www.gao.gov/products/gao-13-242 .] Gleick , P. H. , 1986 : Methods for evaluating the regional hydrologic effects of global climate changes . J. Hydrol. , 88 , 97 – 116 , doi:10.1016/0022-1694(86)90199-X . González , J. L. , and T. E. Tornqvist , 2006 : Coastal Louisiana in crisis: Subsidence or sea level rise? Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union , 87 , 493 – 498 , doi:10.1029/2006EO450001 . Hartmann , D. L. , and Coauthors , 2013 : Observations: Atmosphere and

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Ben Kravitz, Alan Robock, and John C. Moore

-informed voices at future climate negotiations. At the GeoMIP meeting ( Fig. 2 ), numerous new results were highlighted, including the potential role of stratospheric heating in side effects of solar geoengineering, simulations of direct condensation of H 2 SO 4 into sulfate aerosols, and preliminary results from DECIMALS groups regarding downscaling solar geoengineering model output over different regions. Preliminary results from the direct condensation experiments show that, as compared to SO 2 , less

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Neil J. Holbrook, Jianping Li, Matthew Collins, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Fei-Fei Jin, Thomas Knutson, Mojib Latif, Chongyin Li, Scott B. Power, Rhonghui Huang, and Guoxiong Wu

Pacific oscillation (IPO) a real and dynamic feature of the climate system? Cross-scale interactions between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal variability, and anthropogenic climate change. Unambiguous detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change above natural decadal to multidecadal climate variability—how best to do this? Decadal modes on regional climates—focusing on the Asian monsoon. Further details on the agenda and most presentations are available at the workshop web

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Olivia Martius, A. Hering, M. Kunz, A. Manzato, S. Mohr, L. Nisi, and S. Trefalt

-term statistics of hail; convection and hail in a changing climate; microphysics and dynamics of hailstorms: observations and modeling; hail damage and hail damage prevention; and nowcasting and forecasting of hail. LOCAL PROBABILITIES AND LONG-TERM STATISTICS OF HAIL. The contributors to this session presented local-, regional-, and continental-scale hail frequency estimates and analyses of hail-conducive atmospheric environments. Hail occurrence statistics are based mainly on radar- or satellite

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P. Michael Link, Tim Brücher, Martin Claussen, Jasmin S. A. Link, and Jürgen Scheffran

reduced precipitation and droughts affect water security and crop yields in a negative way, then human security is at stake, particularly if the population increases in size. Regional water and food crises, combined with forced migration, can disrupt established networks, for example, between farmers and herders. It can even destabilize societies and provoke additional violence in a region that is already considerably affected by violent conflict. This session assessed the latest empirical results on

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Andrew W. Robertson, Arun Kumar, Malaquias Peña, and Frederic Vitart

), though with undesirable side effects. Very high-horizontal-resolution experiments performed as part of the Minerva Project, which is a seamless high-resolution climate prediction system, did not improve the propagation of the MJO, although the amplitude and spread of the MJO forecasts increased significantly when the model’s horizontal resolution is increased from T319 to T639 (about 64–32-km grid size), and remain constant from T639 to T1279 (about 32–16 km). Stochastic physics in the ECMWF System 4

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