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Ja-Young Hong and Joong-Bae Ahn

future anthropogenic climate change, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) ( Meinshausen et al. 2011 ) based on phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Using the CMIP5 models, Chen and Sun (2013) suggested that, in the RCP4.5 scenario, EA summer precipitation and its intensity might increase in the near (2016–35) and long-term (2080–99) future. Using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and the Regional Climate Model, version 4, Oh et al. (2014) proposed that the EA summer

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Hai Wang, Shang-Ping Xie, Yu Kosaka, Qinyu Liu, and Yan Du

, and ecosystem ( Ma et al. 2017 ). Understanding the dynamical mechanism of Asian summer monsoon response to changing radiative forcing has important societal implications. The potential impacts of anthropogenic aerosols on the Asian summer monsoon have drawn much attention in recent years ( Li et al. 2016 ). Previous studies suggested both the local and nonlocal effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the EASM ( Dong et al. 2016 ) and SASM ( Bollasina et al. 2014 ) to weaken. Results from coupled

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Jan Kretzschmar, Marc Salzmann, Johannes Mülmenstädt, Olivier Boucher, and Johannes Quaas

models . J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. , 118 , 1139 – 1150 , doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50174 . 10.1002/jgrd.50174 Ghan , S. J. , S. J. Smith , M. Wang , K. Zhang , K. Pringle , K. Carslaw , J. Pierce , S. Bauer , and P. Adams , 2013 : A simple model of global aerosol indirect effects . J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. , 118 , 6688 – 6707 , doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50567 . 10.1002/jgrd.50567 Lamarque , J.-F. , and Coauthors , 2010 : Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass

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A. Bellucci, A. Mariotti, and S. Gualdi

phase of the AMV. Booth et al. (2012) , based on simulations performed with a single model, suggest a significant role for anthropogenic aerosols in determining the North Atlantic multidecadal variability. This result has been countered by Zhang et al. (2013) , who suggest that the model used in the analyses by Booth et al. may suffer from an overly strong response to aerosol effects. More recently, Clement et al. (2015) suggested that AMV may be the response to stochastic forcing from the

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Jia-Rui Shi, Shang-Ping Xie, and Lynne D. Talley

et al. 2007 ; Kim and An 2013 ; Rugenstein et al. 2013 ; Winton et al. 2013 ; Gregory et al. 2016 ). Anthropogenic aerosols are a second major radiative forcing for global climate change. Aerosols and GHGs have opposite effects: while GHGs warm Earth, aerosols cool it. The global historical GHG effective radiative forcing (ERF) is estimated at 2.5 ± 0.4 W m −2 , while the ERF of the historical aerosols is about −1.0 ± 0.4 W m −2 in 2000 relative to 1850 based on the CMIP5 models ( Shindell

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Adeline Bichet, Paul J. Kushner, Lawrence Mudryk, Laurent Terray, and John C. Fyfe

against observation-based , , and respectively. We perform one experiment with each estimate of . For these experiments we consider that areas where the regression coefficients are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level represent areas where the signal (anthropogenically forced component) cannot be distinguished from the noise (internal variability). In this case, we set to zero as an attempt to minimize the effects of regions where internal variability dominates, and apply

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David E. Rupp, Sihan Li, Philip W. Mote, Neil Massey, Sarah N. Sparrow, and David C. H. Wallom

-forcings scenarios reflect the effects of different SST boundary conditions used in each scenario ( Figs. 7b–f ). However, all five natural-forcings scenarios share important characteristics. At the 500-hPa level, all scenarios show an anticyclonic change in the winds over CONUS and southern Canada under anthropogenic GHG forcing. Although the strength, shape, and precise location of the anticyclonic change pattern vary among the five scenarios, overall the result of anthropogenic GHG forcing is an

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Seungmok Paik, Seung-Ki Min, Yeon-Hee Kim, Baek-Min Kim, Hideo Shiogama, and Joonghyeok Heo

attribution analysis of 2015 Okhotsk SIE in the context of climate change. Since extreme events could occur due to the compound effects of anthropogenic forcing and natural internal variabilities, we investigated the role of North Pacific atmospheric circulation conditions on the extreme 2015 Okhotsk SIE anomaly, focusing on the NPO. Further, we calculated the contribution of each (external and internal) factor to the observed anomalies in the extreme event and long-term trend. Finally, we diagnosed

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S. Undorf, M. A. Bollasina, and G. C. Hegerl

the all-forcing one less well ( Fig. 9c ). 6. Summary, discussion, and conclusions The long-term signature of anthropogenic aerosol emissions mainly from North America and Europe (NAEU) on Eurasian summer climate throughout the twentieth century has been identified in an ensemble of coupled climate (CMIP5) models. The analysis was motivated by the need to advance the current understanding of the effects of aerosols on regional climate, which is of utmost importance to more confidently assess and

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V. Ramaswamy, W. Collins, J. Haywood, J. Lean, N. Mahowald, G. Myhre, V. Naik, K. P. Shine, B. Soden, G. Stenchikov, and T. Storelvmo

investigations into anthropogenic global warming. The historical developments above, plus many others, beginning principally as scientific curiosity questions concerning Earth’s climate, have formed the foundational basis for the contemporary concept of RF and the estimation of the anthropogenic effects on climate. A major part of the work related to radiative drivers of climate change came initially on the longwave side, and more particularly with interest growing in the infrared absorption by CO 2 and H 2

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