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Kerrie L. Geil, Yolande L. Serra, and Xubin Zeng

). The main source of monsoon moisture has been debated over recent decades, but it is most likely that low-level moisture is advected mainly from the Gulf of California and the eastern Pacific, while the Gulf of Mexico contributes to upper-level moisture ( Schmitz and Mullen 1996 ; Berbery 2001 ; Higgins et al. 2003 ). NAMS region continental moisture sources are also important, as precipitation recycling contributes to monsoon season rainfall ( Bosilovich et al. 2003 ; Dominguez et al. 2008

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Baird Langenbrunner and J. David Neelin

1. Introduction El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading mode of interannual climate variability originating in the tropical Pacific. ENSO teleconnections are a reflection of the strong coupling between the tropical ocean and global atmosphere, and SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific can have substantial remote effects on climate ( Horel and Wallace 1981 ; Ropelewski and Halpert 1987 ; Trenberth et al. 1998 ; Wallace et al. 1998 ; Dai and Wigley 2000 ). In recent decades

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Jeanne M. Thibeault and Anji Seth

largely focused on winter and spring streamflow variability (e.g., Leathers et al. 2000 ; Bradbury et al. 2002a , b ; Kingston et al. 2007 ). Coulibaly and Burn (2005) examined the relationships between Canadian seasonal streamflows and atmospheric teleconnection indices. Leathers et al. (2000) evaluated growing-season moisture deficits in the northeast region and found that anomalously wet years are associated with the presence of negative geopotential height anomalies over the eastern United

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Justin Sheffield, Andrew P. Barrett, Brian Colle, D. Nelun Fernando, Rong Fu, Kerrie L. Geil, Qi Hu, Jim Kinter, Sanjiv Kumar, Baird Langenbrunner, Kelly Lombardo, Lindsey N. Long, Eric Maloney, Annarita Mariotti, Joyce E. Meyerson, Kingtse C. Mo, J. David Neelin, Sumant Nigam, Zaitao Pan, Tong Ren, Alfredo Ruiz-Barradas, Yolande L. Serra, Anji Seth, Jeanne M. Thibeault, Julienne C. Stroeve, Ze Yang, and Lei Yin

. (2013 , hereafter Part II ) evaluates intraseasonal to decadal variability. Maloney et al. (2013, manuscript submitted to J. Climate , hereafter Part III) describes the projected changes for the twenty-first century. The CMIP5 provides an unprecedented collection of climate model output data for the assessment of future climate projections as well as evaluations of climate models for contemporary climate, the attribution of observed climate change, and improved understanding of climate processes

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Suzana J. Camargo

-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: A study using single-forcing climate simulations . Atmos. Chem. Phys. , 12 , 6377 – 6404 . Sheffield , J. , and Coauthors , 2013 : North American climate in the CMIP5 experiments. Part II: Evaluation of historical simulations of intraseasonal to decadal variability . J. Climate , in press . Smith , D. , R. Eade , N. J. Dunstone , D. Fereday , J. M. Murphy , H. Pohlmann , and A. A. Scaife , 2010

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Brian A. Colle, Zhenhai Zhang, Kelly A. Lombardo, Edmund Chang, Ping Liu, and Minghua Zhang

period, especially for storm central pressure, cyclogenesis, and deepening rates. The Best7 models encompass six of the seven highest-resolution CMIP models. There is a relatively large decadal variability in the number of cyclones in the CFSR from 1979–2004 over eastern North America and the western Atlantic, with a 5%–10% increase in the mid-to-late 1980s and late 1990s. There is a slight downward trend in the number of cyclones since the early 1990s. The individual CMIP models also simulate large

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Paul A. Dirmeyer, Yan Jin, Bohar Singh, and Xiaoqin Yan

1. Introduction A large number of studies with regional and global models and observed datasets over the last three decades have demonstrated that the state of the land surface has a significant influence on the atmosphere. Soil moisture is the most important land surface state variable affecting the global atmosphere on intraseasonal to interannual time scales ( Dirmeyer 2011a ). Climate modeling and observational studies have shown that a large portion of North America demonstrates a feedback

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Edmund K. M. Chang

climatology . J. Climate , in press . Sheffield , J. , and Coauthors , 2013b : North American climate in CMIP5 experiments. Part II: Evaluation of historical simulations of intraseasonal to decadal variability . J. Climate , in press . Solomon , S. , D. Qin , M. Manning , Z. Chen , M. Marquis , K. B. Averyt , M. Tignor , and H. L. Miller , Eds., 2007 : Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp. Taylor , K. E. , R. J. Stouffer

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