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Susan Stillman, Xubin Zeng, and Michael G. Bosilovich

performed better in humid regions than in arid regions and overestimated light rainfall while underestimating moderate and heavy rainfall. Reanalyses combine model forecast with observations to provide globally continuous fields of the analyzed observations and other variables derived from the background model. While observationally driven, their ability to estimate physical processes, such as precipitation, depends on many factors, including observational coverage and model performance, and is

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Elinor R. Martin and Chris Thorncroft

measure of low- and midlevel AEW activity and are obtained from four reanalysis products for 1979–2008: ERA-Interim (0.75°; Simmons et al. 2007 ), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; 0.5°; Saha et al. 2010 ), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-55; 1.25°; Kobayashi et al. 2015 ), and NCEP–NCAR (2.5°; Kalnay et al. 1996 ). In addition, EKE at 850 hPa has been shown to be important for tropical cyclogenesis ( Gray 1968 ; Thorncroft and Hodges 2001 ; Hopsch et al. 2007 ). Rainfall data

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Irenea L. Corporal-Lodangco, Lance M. Leslie, and Peter J. Lamb

the winds exceed 32.78 m s −1 . The intensity classification established by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) was adopted in this study. PAGASA is the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) designated agency for monitoring, forecasting, and archiving TCs that affect the Philippines. a. Domain and TC data source The study region encompasses latitudes 5°–25°N and longitudes 115°–135°E, shown in Fig. 1 as the black inset, and is referred to

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Kerry H. Cook and Edward K. Vizy

physical processes of the precipitation changes that are responsible for those reductions. 3. Model simulations and evaluation The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; Skamarock et al. 2005 ) regional model, version 3.1.1, is used with 32 vertical levels, 90-km horizontal resolution, and a time step of 3 min. The top of the atmosphere is set at 20 hPa. Figure 2 shows the full model domain with

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Peter J. Lamb, Diane H. Portis, and Abraham Zangvil

(1931–1993) and applications to long-range temperature forecasts . J. Climate , 9 , 1350 – 1362 . Illston, B. G. , Basara J. B. , Fisher D. K. , Elliott R. , Fiebrich C. A. , Crawford K. C. , Humes K. , and Hunt E. , 2008 : Mesoscale monitoring of soil moisture across a statewide network . J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. , 25 , 167 – 182 . Koster, R. D. , and Coauthors , 2004 : Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation . Science , 305 , 1138 – 1140

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Rahul S. Todmal

droughts augmented during the recent years. The significant relationships between SOI and SPI and between SOI and IOD (dipole mode index) that have emerged from the present investigation can be incorporated to precisely forecast the monsoon as well as droughts over the study area. The future rise in temperature (up to 2050) will not only amplify the meteorological droughts (through augmentation of evaporation rate and agricultural water demand) over the study basins but also adversely affect the

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