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Jason Senkbeil, Jacob Reed, Jennifer Collins, Kimberly Brothers, Michelle Saunders, Walker Skeeter, Emily Cerrito, Saurav Chakraborty, and Amy Polen

track (OT), forecast track (FT), and evacuee home location (HL). Positive or negative values respectively indicate that the first variable is east/north or west/south of the second variable in each column. The Hurricane Irma results show the p values for day 1 against day 2 using Mann-Whitney tests. There are no test results for Isaac and Harvey because of small sample sizes. The middle section gives Kruskal Wallis test results and means in kilometers for hurricane experience. The bottom section

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Michael Paolisso, Ellen Douglas, Ashley Enrici, Paul Kirshen, Chris Watson, and Matthias Ruth

). 4. Study communities The study communities of Smithville and Bellevue are both located on the Maryland portion of the Eastern Shore of the Chesapeake Bay ( Fig. 1 ). Fishing, farming, and forestry are the keystones of the Eastern Shore economy and way of life. As Maryland’s most concentrated agricultural region, counties in the middle Eastern Shore area (Queen Anne’s, Talbot, Caroline, and Dorchester), account for almost one-third of Maryland’s agricultural land and produce over 50% of the state

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Scott C. Sheridan, P. Grady Dixon, Adam J. Kalkstein, and Michael J. Allen

dataset, this subset of population has gone from the most vulnerable [1975–84 RR of 1.24; confidence interval (CI) from 1.18 to 1.31] to one of the least (2010–18 RR of 1.0; CI from 0.98 to 1.04). There have been decreases in vulnerability among men 65 and older as well, although the decrease is less steep for men, and the overall risk at the end of the period is still statistically significant. In contrast, there has been much less marked change in those 45–64 years of age. For middle-aged women, the

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Benjamin Sultan, Bruno Barbier, Jeanne Fortilus, Serigne Modou Mbaye, and Grégoire Leclerc

middle tercile. We applied our methodology to two state-of-the-art approaches to climate predictions: statistical forecast methods that are close to the ones included in the operational PRESAO system but are transposed in a deterministic context and coupled atmosphere–ocean models included in the DEMETER project. We found similar skill and economic value of the statistical and dynamical forecast methods by considering the same lead time (April) and the same 31-yr hindcast period 1970–2000 and keeping

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Asher Siebert

). These atmospheric jet streams form as a result of the seasonal gradients of heating and geopotential height at different levels in the atmosphere, although the AEJ is quite sensitive to surface vegetation feedbacks ( Cook 1999 ). The TEJ is part of a more global process extending all the way to Southeast Asia, whereas the AEJ is more localized and its sensitivity to local land surface feedbacks can imply that strong AEJ development can suppress precipitation in the West African Sahel ( Cook 1999

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Stephen B. Broomell, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Rebecca E. Morss, and Julie L. Demuth

the middle of the leg farthest from the cyclone vertex. This indicates that as a group, they perceive tropical cyclones to be least likely to generate tornadoes, and they have similar perceptions of likelihood for supercell and QLCS systems. The mean of the expert sample is determined using the geometry of compositions, which we will describe qualitatively to simplify interpretation (for a review, see van den Boogaart and Tolosana-Delgado 2013 ). Central tendency of a composition is defined by

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Kirsti Jylhä, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Hanna Niemi-Hugaerts, Krista Keisu, and Juha A. Karhu

B1 scenario, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and other GHGs increase only slowly up to the 2040s and then start to reduce in time, resulting in a not larger than 1.5-fold concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere and a threefold total radiative forcing in 2100 compared to those in 2000 ( Fig. 1 ). Hence, B1 may be used as a surrogate for mitigation scenarios. In the A2 scenario, GHG emissions increase continuously, producing as large as 2.3-fold CO 2 concentrations and a sixfold radiative

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Katie A. Wilson, Pamela L. Heinselman, Patrick S. Skinner, Jessica J. Choate, and Kim E. Klockow-McClain

1. Introduction Uncertainty is inherent in forecasts of any natural system, including the weather. The limited predictability of the atmosphere and the resulting initial value problem thus calls for an ensemble of numerical weather predictions that can provide probabilistic forecast information ( Bauer et al. 2015 ). Advancements in scientific understanding, computing resources, and observations have led to the development of operational numerical weather prediction systems that span the

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Randy A. Peppler

about more and won’t have to be worrying about too many tight ice freezes.” He called for a “short and hard winter, the big freeze to come in February and last until the middle of March.” This informant added that fox squirrels were not storing nuts and corn in the late fall, meaning “the snow won’t last too long and that the squirrels will be more active in search for food. Maybe!” A third old timer lamented “all water over the dam nowadays, since the atomic tests, I believe the chemicals have

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Johnathan P. Kirk and Gordon A. Cromley

trend that generally echoes the transitional nature of the atmosphere. As in most applications of clustering, the selected number of clusters has important implications. The user can define the dimensions of the SOM lattice based on multiple considerations. These include the representativeness of the topology of the fitted node lattice to the input data distribution; the distribution of the number of data points assigned to the resultant nodes; the balance between the minimization of within

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