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Lixion A. Avila, Richard J. Pasch, John L. Beven II, James L. Franklin, Miles B. Lawrence, and Stacy R. Stewart

northeast of Hawaii. h. Hurricane Howard: 30 August–5 September Howard formed from a tropical wave that moved westward across the coast of Africa on 18 August. While there was no development as the wave crossed the Atlantic, an increase in the associated shower activity occurred on 26 August when the system reached the western Caribbean Sea and the eastern North Pacific. The resulting disturbed weather then moved west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. Deep convection

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Miles B. Lawrence, Lixion A. Avila, Jack L. Beven, James L. Franklin, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

Hawaii while weakening. Daniel passed just north of Hawaii and produced rough surf conditions there. Daniel's origin is associated with a tropical wave that moved from Africa to the Atlantic on 8 July. The wave moved westward across the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, and Central America without distinction. It was not until 23 July that the wave's weather became well organized. It is estimated that a tropical depression formed on 23 July, 575 n mi south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Daniel was

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Miles B. Lawrence

1. Introduction Tropical cyclone activity was near normal in the eastern North Pacific basin (east of 140°W). Seventeen tropical cyclones reached at least tropical storm strength (≥34 kt) (1 kt = 1 n mi h −1 = 1852/3600 or 0.514 444 m s −1 ) and nine of these reached hurricane force (≥64 kt). The long-term (1966–96) averages are 15.7 tropical storms and 8.7 hurricanes. Table 1 lists the names, dates, maximum 1-min surface wind speed, minimum central pressure, and deaths, if

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James L. Franklin, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven II, Miles B. Lawrence, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

1. Overview Tropical cyclone activity in the eastern North Pacific hurricane basin (the area north of the equator between the American continents and 140°W longitude) was below average in the year 2002. There were 12 cyclones of at least tropical storm strength ( Table 1 , Fig. 1 ). Of these, six became hurricanes. The mean seasonal totals for the period 1966–2002 were 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. Although the total of six hurricanes was below normal, there were five “major

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Edward N. Rappaport

that moved to eastern North America accelerated the storm toward the northeast on 2 and 3 July. On 4 July, Ana became extratropical after traversing relatively cold water for several days. It then dissipated. c. Hurricane Bill, 11–13 July Hurricane Bill developed from a large upper-level low that separated from a midoceanic trough northeast of Puerto Rico. On 7 July, satellite images indicated that cloudiness and showers associated with the upper-level low began to increase

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Miles B. Lawrence, Lixion A. Avila, Jack L. Beven, James L. Franklin, John L. Guiney, and Richard J. Pasch

the highest since Hurricane Agnes of 1972 (122 deaths). The deadliest tropical cyclone of the season was a tropical depression, whose heavy rain and flooding caused 400 deaths in Mexico. Between May and November, 59 tropical waves moved westward across Dakar, Senegal's longitude. Many were tracked all the way across Central America to the eastern North Pacific basin. The origins of 11 of this season's 12 named tropical cyclones, or 92%, were associated with these waves. This compares to the 1967

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Richard J. Pasch, Lixion A. Avila, and John L. Guiney

2 . b. Tropical waves during 1998 Figure 10 summarizes the tropical wave activity during 1998 and highlights the TCs that formed from the waves. For the period of May to November, 60 tropical waves crossed Dakar and moved westward over the tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and Central America. Most of them appeared to continue into the eastern North Pacific. There was approximately one wave crossing at Dakar every 3.5 days. The long-term average number of waves observed for the same period

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Miles B. Lawrence, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven, James L. Franklin, Richard J. Pasch, and Stacy R. Stewart

area. This resulted in some homes being flooded. An F1 tornado (on the Fujita scale) touched down in Reserve, Louisiana, around 1710 UTC 30 June, hitting a private school and causing significant damage to several buildings. It then hit a mobile home park, damaging at least 20 homes. There was a total of 30 tornadoes from Louisiana through North Carolina. The Property Claim Services Division of the American Insurance Services Group, the Insurance Services Office, Inc., reports that insured losses

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James L. Franklin, Richard J. Pasch, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven II, Miles B. Lawrence, Stacy R. Stewart, and Eric S. Blake

); this combination allowed hurricanes approaching the Caribbean and North America to maintain much of their intensity. It remains to be seen whether the synoptic-scale patterns observed during 2004 represent a 1-yr anomaly or something more ominous. 2. Storm and hurricane summaries The individual cyclone summaries that follow are based on the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) poststorm meteorological analyses of a wide variety of (often contradictory) data types described below. These analyses result

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Richard J. Pasch, Miles B. Lawrence, Lixion A. Avila, John L. Beven, James L. Franklin, and Stacy R. Stewart

Fig. 1 is a map of their tracks. It can be seen that most of the cyclones originated at subtropical latitudes, north of 25°N. Of the 12 named systems, only 3, Dolly, Isidore, and Lili, originated from tropical waves. Two of the named systems, Gustav and Kyle, started out as subtropical cyclones. Figure 2 show the sea surface temperature anomalies over most of the North Atlantic basin for August and September of 2002, as well as the points of formation of the tropical and subtropical cyclones

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