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Duzgun Agdas, Forrest J. Masters, and Gregory D. Webster

experience. Potential hazards of shadow evacuation behavior in no-evacuation zones are also discussed in detail by Dueñas-Osorio et al. (2012) . While much of the literature focuses on the potential benefits of better risk perception and increased impact of better risk assessment in improving mitigation and preparedness activities, the authors discuss the potential issues associated with shadow evacuations. The authors also discuss the discrepancies in storm surge, which is the more destructive

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D. W. Wanik, E. N. Anagnostou, M. Astitha, B. M. Hartman, G. M. Lackmann, J. Yang, D. Cerrai, J. He, and M. E. B. Frediani

findings and future research directions. 2. Weather data a. Background Within the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) one can find several future emissions scenarios and the associated impact on global average temperature and sea level rise; these scenarios include keeping emissions at constant levels from the year 2000 and subsequent scenarios with increased emissions. In our study, we utilized the A2 emissions scenario, which describes a heterogeneous world with increasing population and carbon

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Daniel S. Wilks and Kenneth A. Horowitz

’ probability assessments for the event. Furthermore, this result is achieved without requiring a counterparty, that is, someone other than the exchange who is willing to sell the contracts. The landfall segments have been defined mainly as counties in order that hedgers need only pay to hedge against local risks. However, the length scale of hurricane damage is typically somewhat larger than the length of the typical county coastline, so buying contracts for adjacent counties also would generally be

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Manabu Nemoto, Takahiro Hamasaki, Ryoji Sameshima, Etsushi Kumagai, Hiroyuki Ohno, Yasuyuki Wakiyama, Atsushi Maruyama, Shinkichi Goto, and Kiyoshi Ozawa

temperatures and rice cultivar characteristics. Transplanting dates are chosen after the first critical date so that seedlings will survive and to ensure that heading will occur between the early and late limits. This method is intended to use climate resources efficiently in cold areas in Japan, but it is not easy to decide upon the best cropping schedule because of independence among the three risk assessments, and it does not deal with interannual variability in meteorological conditions. In northern

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Bradfield Lyon, Lareef Zubair, Vidhura Ralapanawe, and Zeenas Yahiya

selected meteorological drought indicators and the occurrence of drought relief payments in a tropical setting, using Sri Lanka as a case study. Drought relief payments made in districts across the country by the government over a 41-yr period will be used as a proxy for drought risk. Note at the outset the important distinction between meteorological drought, emphasized in this study, and relative dry periods that occur with seasonal regularity in locations with a strong annual cycle of

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T. Loridan, S. Khare, E. Scherer, M. Dixon, and E. Bellone

1. Introduction Whether it serves disaster adaptation and mitigation organizations or the insurance industry, there is an increasing demand for probabilistic estimates of the potential impact from rare natural catastrophic events. For that purpose, risk assessment systems rely on very large ensembles of model simulations that extrapolate historical records. They are designed to represent extremely long periods of natural hazard activity [e.g., ~(10 4 –10 5 ) yr] to ensure very high return

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Amanda M. Walker, David W. Titley, Michael E. Mann, Raymond G. Najjar, and Sonya K. Miller

. Applications of statistics and neural networks led to the development of the Hurricane Impact Level model ( Pilkington and Mahmoud 2016 ), which uses a storm’s pressure, winds, storm surge, and other variables to create a measure of economic impact. This model shows promise for both operational use ( Pilkington and Mahmoud 2017a ) and for the theoretical assessment of risk ( Pilkington and Mahmoud 2017b ), but it only offers analysis of potential economic loss on an overall storm-level scale. It is not

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Lifeng Luo, Ying Tang, Shiyuan Zhong, Xindi Bian, and Warren E. Heilman

atmospheric dryness and instability can contribute to erratic and extreme fire behavior, thus increasing the risk of losing containment of a fire, which may result in catastrophic damage and property loss. Global climate change may have a significant impact on these factors, thus affecting potential wildfire activity across many parts of the world ( Flannigan et al. 2009 ). For example, Gillett et al. (2004) demonstrated that human-induced climate change has had a detectable influence on forest fires in

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D. J. Rasmussen, Malte Meinshausen, and Robert E. Kopp

1. Introduction The risk of an adverse event is characterized by its probability and its consequences ( Kaplan and Garrick 1981 ). Risk analysis thus requires consideration of the probabilities and consequences of as full a range of possible outcomes as possible, including “tail risks” that have low probability but high consequence. For assessments of the local and regional risks of climate change, this requirement poses two major challenges. First, ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean general

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C. Adam Schlosser, Xiang Gao, Kenneth Strzepek, Andrei Sokolov, Chris E. Forest, Sirein Awadalla, and William Farmer

“climate risk,” which impact and adaptation studies must encompass and incorporate in an increasingly quantifiable capacity. To that end, previous assessment exercises have employed spatial disaggregation techniques so that changes in key inputs, such as temperature and precipitation, are provided at the necessary level of spatial detail (e.g., Yohe and Schlesinger 1998 ). Such a class of software tools has been developed over the past two decades to provide modelers with a reduced form method to

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