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Russell L. Elsberry, Eric A. Hendricks, Christopher S. Velden, Michael M. Bell, Melinda Peng, Eleanor Casas, and Qingyun Zhao

resolution, the SCDI–NAVGEM analysis provided an excellent intensity forecast to 36 h in terms of both the large magnitude and the constant trend. The upscaling of the SCDI analysis to NAVGEM also resulted in a better 24-h forecast of the inner-core surface winds and the size of the vortex (here the 18 m s −1 winds), which should lead to a better ocean surface wave forecast (not shown). This combination of a more accurate track, intensity, and vortex surface wind distribution is important for warnings

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Patrick Duran and John Molinari

of the background environment. More recent literature (e.g., Wirth 2003 ) has noted that strong, shallow temperature inversions immediately above the cold-point tropopause are a common feature in the tropics, now known as the tropopause inversion layer (TIL). On the planetary scale, TIL formation and maintenance has been tied to planetary wave dynamics ( Grise et al. 2010 ) and vertical gradients of radiative heating across the tropopause ( Randel et al. 2007 ), but the relative contributions of

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Nannan Qin and Da-Lin Zhang

an intensification rate of greater than 15.4 m s −1 day −1 in V MAX , following Kaplan and DeMaria (2003) . In hindsight, Patricia’s strong intensity was expected, but not the degree to which it would intensify, and it did so rapidly ( Kimberlain et al. 2016 ), given its development in a very favorable environment with high sea surface temperature (SST), high ocean heat content, weak vertical wind shear (VWS), and ample low-tropospheric moisture ( Gray 1968 ; Holliday and Thompson 1979

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William A. Komaromi and James D. Doyle

momentum associated with the eddies. Leroux et al. (2013) found a similar evolution, with trough interaction triggering secondary eyewall formation for TC Dora in the Indian Ocean. In a follow-on study, Leroux et al. (2016) found an optimal position of the TC relative to the trough in order for favorable interaction to occur. However, for many real cases, the temporal window in which EFC promotes TC intensification will be short: positive EFC may occur too far from the TC if the trough is not

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Robert G. Nystrom, Fuqing Zhang, Erin B. Munsell, Scott A. Braun, Jason A. Sippel, Yonghui Weng, and Kerry Emanuel

false alarms along the eastern seaboard of the United States as a hurricane that was initially forecasted to make landfall, in reality, stayed out at sea. Berg (2016) described the full life cycle of Joaquin. Instead of developing from an African easterly wave, the common initial source of major hurricanes in the North Atlantic ( Landsea 1993 ), Joaquin developed from an upper-level low pressure system. Joaquin became a tropical storm by 0000 UTC 29 September to the north-northeast of the Bahamas

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David R. Ryglicki, Joshua H. Cossuth, Daniel Hodyss, and James D. Doyle

), and the difference between maximum potential intensity (MPI; Rotunno and Emanuel 1987 ) and current intensity (POT). The potential intensity difference allows for a simple quantification of thermodynamic favorability. It should be noted that some of the refined predictors, such as total precipitable water and ocean heat content, do not cover the entire historical dataset in SHIPS (including Guillermo), so homogeneous climatological comparisons cannot be made with the newer predictors at this time

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