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Kimmo Ruosteenoja and Petri Räisänen

1. Introduction As a response to the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, climate models simulate an increase in precipitation for northern Europe and a decrease for southern Europe; in central Europe, the trend is positive in winter and negative in summer ( Solomon et al. 2007 , their Figs. 10.9 and 11.5). Concurrently, cloudiness will increase slightly in the northern part and decrease considerably in the southern part of the continent ( Solomon et al. 2007 , their Fig. 10.10; Trenberth

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Nicky Stringer, Jeff Knight, and Hazel Thornton

. Although this application does not use seasonal forecasting explicitly, the initial ENSO state is likely to persist throughout the season and influence the meteorological conditions. Traditionally, skillful seasonal meteorological forecasts have been confined to the tropics. However, in recent years, there has been an emergence of skill in the prediction of large-scale circulation patterns in the midlatitudes, especially during winter. In this study we focus on European seasonal meteorological

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A. G. Marshall, A. A. Scaife, and S. Ineson

tropical atmosphere following the eruptions. Climate variations included a substantial winter surface warming of Northern Hemisphere continents, including over Europe and Siberia and anomalous cooling over the Middle East and Greenland, as was documented following the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo eruptions ( Robock and Mao 1992 ; Stenchikov et al. 1998 , respectively). The most widely accepted large-scale dynamical mechanism associated with these anomalies stems from the lower-stratospheric warming

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Matteo Zampieri, Fabio D’Andrea, Robert Vautard, Philippe Ciais, Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré, and Pascal Yiou

1. Introduction The unprecedented heat wave witnessed during the summer of 2003 reached an amplitude of five standard deviations in some areas of Europe, according to the current surface temperature climatology. It triggered considerable concern in Europe because it was suggested to be a possible premonitory picture of a warmer European summer climate to come at the second half of the twenty-first century ( Schär et al. 2004 ; Beniston 2004 ). Heat waves have been studied for a long time (e

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Jürgen Grieser and Francesca Terenzi

1. Introduction While the United States experiences approximately 100 violent tornadoes per decade, violent tornadoes are seen as extremely rare events in Europe. However, there is historical evidence that violent tornadoes and tornado outbreaks do actually happen in Europe. Some examples of those tornadoes are provided in Table 1 . Table 1. Some major tornado events in Europe, as reported by Grazulis (2001) (source 1), the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD; source 2), The Tornado and

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Olga Zolina, Clemens Simmer, Konstantin Belyaev, Alice Kapala, and Sergey Gulev

statistical significance problems owing to the low occurrence of such events. As a consequence, continental-scale estimates of the variability and trends in heavy precipitation might generally agree qualitatively but may exhibit significant quantitative differences. For the European continent, most results hint at a growing intensity of heavy precipitation over the last five decades. Klein Tank and Können (2003 , hereafter KTK03) reported primarily positive linear trends in extreme precipitation

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David Fereday, Robin Chadwick, Jeff Knight, and Adam A. Scaife

for land ( Byrne and O’Gorman 2015 ). However, projected precipitation changes show a large intermodel spread in many regions ( Kent et al. 2015 ). Patterns of seasonal precipitation changes by the end of the twenty-first century tend toward wetter conditions in northern Europe and drier conditions in southern Europe, but the multimodel mean changes tend to be smaller than the internal variability (Fig. 12.22 in Collins et al. 2013 ). While it is possible that these future climate trends may

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M. J. Fennessy and J. L. Kinter III

1. Introduction During the summer of 2003, a record heat wave occurred in Europe. Between 22 000 and 35 000 deaths in 18 countries, with nearly 15 000 deaths in France alone as well as an estimated $13 billion (U.S. dollars) in costs, were attributed to the heat wave ( World Health Organization 2004 ; International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies 2004 ). The extreme weather during that summer was also responsible for widespread wildfires and dramatic reductions in bird and

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Mateusz Taszarek, John Allen, Tomáš Púčik, Pieter Groenemeijer, Bartosz Czernecki, Leszek Kolendowicz, Kostas Lagouvardos, Vasiliki Kotroni, and Wolfgang Schulz

observations developed in the United States, Europe, or Australia ( Dotzek et al. 2009 ; Tippett et al. 2015 ; Allen and Allen 2016 ). A second method for monitoring thunderstorm activity is by remote sensing, such as by radar systems, lightning detection networks, and satellite-based sensors. These sensors exhibit fewer spatial and temporal inhomogeneities than in situ observations. A number of thunderstorm climatologies have been based on lightning detection networks at national, continental, or global

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Roman Brogli, Nico Kröner, Silje Lund Sørland, Daniel Lüthi, and Christoph Schär

al. 2012 ). An enhanced near-surface summer warming and drying in the Mediterranean compared to the rest of Europe is projected by the end of the century. This north–south warming gradient is commonly referred to as the Mediterranean amplification. The Mediterranean amplification is expected to have socioeconomic ( Lorenzo et al. 2016 ) and ecological ( Anderegg et al. 2013 ) impacts, for example, due to more frequent heat waves ( Fischer and Schär 2010 ) or water scarcity ( Seager et al. 2014

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