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Michael E. Charles and Brian A. Colle

1. Introduction a. Background This paper is the second in a series verifying extratropical cyclones within the operational models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Charles and Colle (2009 , hereafter Part I) highlighted the performance of the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models around North America and its adjacent oceans for the 0–60-h forecasts of extratropical cyclones during the 2002–07 cool seasons. Cyclone forecast errors

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Vijay Tallapragada, Chanh Kieu, Samuel Trahan, Qingfu Liu, Weiguo Wang, Zhan Zhang, Mingjing Tong, Banglin Zhang, Lin Zhu, and Brian Strahl

1. Introduction In support of the operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts in the western North Pacific basin (WPAC) for the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) began providing experimental real-time TC forecasts for the WPAC in 2012, using the operational high-resolution triple-nested Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) modeling system ( Tallapragada et al. 2015 , hereinafter

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Riccardo Mel and Piero Lionello

synthetically called surge residual (SR). The forecast center of the Venice municipality [Istituzione Centro Previsioni e Segnalazioni Maree (ICPSM), a center for tide prediction and warning], operates a set of models for SL prediction. Initially, a linear statistical autoregressive model ( Tomasin 1972 ) has been used for operational forecasting of SL in Venice. This model, which is calibrated using observed sea level time series [the tide gauge station “Punta Salute” (PS) has been operating for over a

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James P. Kossin and Mark DeMaria

their radii based on environmental and satellite data. The flight-level data and the models of Kossin and Sitkowski (2012) are well suited to capturing and predicting details of wind structure evolution associated with ERCs, but they are not optimal for addressing operational requirements, which focus mostly on forecasting the maximum wind regardless of its position relative to the storm center and not the broader details of the wind structure and interplay between the inner and outer wind maxima

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Frank Woodcock and Chermelle Engel

. The increasing frequency of numerical and observational system changes suggests the importance of DMOs will increase relative to MOS. Hence, it is important that modern automated weather forecasting systems include DMO components. A key similarity between DMO ( Stensrud and Skindlov 1996 ) and degraded MOS ( Wilson and Vallée 2002 ) forecasts is the presence of location-dependent, systematic biases. Once biases are removed, both schemes provide close to operational quality forecasts. Clemen (1989

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Tamara U. Wall, Timothy J. Brown, and Nicholas J. Nauslar

additional context and insight from the operational side of issuing SWFs. Based on their suggestions, we scheduled and conducted a smaller and more focused second round of phone interviews in 2015 with seven NWS forecasters. The geographic distribution of these interviews matched that from the first round of interviews. The forecasters were selected from within their geographic region using the snowball sampling method ( Marshall and Rossman 2015 ). We prepared a semistructured interview guide for both

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Qinglan Li, Pengcheng Xu, Xingbao Wang, Hongping Lan, Chunyan Cao, Guangxin Li, Lijie Zhang, and Liqun Sun

) models, the performance of these models when forecasting local severe weather events is still far from satisfactory ( Kidder et al. 2005 ; Willoughby et al. 2007 ; Liu et al. 2008 ; Li et al. 2015 ). Thus, besides the NWP method, exploring other ways to predict rainfall and wind for severe weather conditions is important and necessary. Pfost (2000) presented some operational techniques for real-time quantitative precipitation forecasting for landfalling tropical cyclones along the Florida and

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Philip A. Lutzak

studies of undular bores elsewhere, summarizes a set of necessary conditions associated with the development of bores in this region and an operational technique for forecasting them. Particular attention is focused on the seasonal influences that produce these conditions, as they are unique to this region of North America and are also nearly optimal for producing a wave cloud signature visible in satellite images. 2. Theory a. Density current and bore properties In order for a frontal boundary to

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Haksu Lee, Yu Zhang, Dong-Jun Seo, Robert J. Kuligowski, David Kitzmiller, and Robert Corby

) could augment operational river flow forecasting for some basins outside of radar coverage and in sparsely gauged areas. They will need to be used in a manner that considers their own limitations, of course, including complex terrain (orographic enhancements of convection are captured, but seeder–feeder enhancements are not) and snow cover [which precludes microwave (MW)-based retrievals but still allows infrared (IR)-based estimates]. Among real-time multisatellite QPE algorithms, this study uses

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Ewan Short

1. Introduction Modern weather forecasts are typically produced by models in conjunction with human forecasters. Operational forecasters working for the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) undertake two key steps to construct a 7-day forecast. First, they choose a model guidance dataset on which to base the official forecast. Datasets from both the BoM and international modeling centers are available to Australian forecasters, with the BoM’s Operational Consensus Forecast (OCF) an

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