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Andrea Schneidereit, Silke Schubert, Pavel Vargin, Frank Lunkeit, Xiuhua Zhu, Dieter H. W. Peters, and Klaus Fraedrich

stratosphere due to adiabatic ascent. This anticorrelation is more pronounced between mid-July and mid-August. Fig . 1. Temperature (°C) time series (black solid line) from May to August 2010 on 40°N, 54°E and at (a) 1000, (b) 300, and (c) 100 hPa. The solid and dashed lines indicate the long-term mean (1989–2010) and the 95% confidence intervals. Using medium-range forecasts with different lead times, the occurrence of the blocking feature in 2010 appears to be linked with a high predictability, whereas

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Gabriel Wolf and Volkmar Wirth

wave breaking toward the end of the life cycle resulted in the formation of a cutoff cyclone over Europe, which led to the heavy precipitation event. The rain was poorly forecast by the operational centers even on the relatively short time scale of a few days ( Grazzini and van der Grijn 2002 ). Assuming that large-scale and long-lived dynamical features should generally be predictable on a time scale longer than just a few days, this suggest that there may be room for improvements concerning the

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